Debt-Ceiling Standoff Could Start a Recession, but Default Would Be Worse
Economists assess the damage that could occur in three scenarios ranging from a last-minute deal to a lengthy impasse.
Sold IEP June 16 $30 puts today.
08:20 | USD | Redbook Index (YoY)(May 19) | 1.5% | - | - | 1.6% | ||||
08:45 | USD | S&P Global Composite PMI(May) PREL | 54.5 | 3.14 | 50 | 53.4 | ||||
08:45 | USD | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI(May) PREL | 48.5 | -1.38 | 50 | 50.2 | ||||
08:45 | USD | S&P Global Services PMI(May) PREL | 55.1 | 1.52 | 52.6 | 53.6 | ||||
09:00 | USD | New Home Sales (MoM)(Apr) | 0.683M | 0.70 | 0.665M | 0.656M | ||||
09:00 | USD | New Home Sales Change (MoM)(Apr) | 4.1% | 0.18 | 3.3% | 4% | ||||
09:00 | USD | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index(May) | -15 | -0.85 | -10 | -10 |
What are you talking about? We are in a recession!!!The US economy is growing at the fastest pace since April 2022.
That's according to new data from S&P Global releasedTuesday morning.
S&P Global's flash US composite PMI, which captures activity in both the services and manufacturing sectors, came in at 54.5 in May, up from 53.4 in April and better than the 53.0 that had been expected by economists. This marked a 13-month high for the index.
This increase was entirely driven by an uptick in the services sector. The services component of S&P's report showed the index registered 55.1 this month, up from 53.6 in April. Manufacturing activity, however, contracted in May with the index registering 48.5, the lowest in two months.
Any reading above 50 for these indexes represents expansion in the sector; readings below 50 indicate contraction.
08:20 USD Redbook Index (YoY)(May 19) 1.5% - - 1.6% 08:45 USD S&P Global Composite PMI(May) PREL 54.5 3.14 50 53.4 08:45 USD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI(May) PREL 48.5 -1.38 50 50.2 08:45 USD S&P Global Services PMI(May) PREL 55.1 1.52 52.6 53.6 09:00 USD New Home Sales (MoM)(Apr) 0.683M 0.70 0.665M 0.656M 09:00 USD New Home Sales Change (MoM)(Apr) 4.1% 0.18 3.3% 4% 09:00 USD Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index(May) -15 -0.85 -10 -10
The Service sector is expanding. Any indicator over 50 shows an increase. Manufacturing is contracting.What are you talking about? We are in a recession!!!
The Service sector is expanding. Any indicator over 50 shows an increase. Manufacturing is contracting.
Watch the other AI companies pop…[Microsoft..Goog..]Nvidia.![]()
I just opened small position at 18.70.The Mays I sold expired worthless for the buyer; as the seller I got to keep the premium. Trade closed.
Absolutely. Buy and hold the big guys.Watch the other AI companies pop…[Microsoft..Goog..]
08:30 | USD | Durable Goods Orders ex Defense(Apr) | -0.6% | -0.17 | 0.1% | 3.2% | ||||
08:30 | USD | Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation(Apr) | -0.2% | -0.32 | -0.1% | 0.3% | ||||
08:30 | USD | Goods Trade Balance(Apr) PREL | $-96.8B | -3.94 | $-85.7B | $-86.6B | ||||
08:30 | USD | Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft(Apr) | 1.4% | 3.56 | -0.2% | -0.6% | ||||
08:30 | USD | Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)(Apr) | 0.4% | 0 | 0.4% | 0.1% | ||||
08:30 | USD | Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)(Apr) | 4.4% | 1.48 | 3.9% | 4.2% | ||||
08:30 | USD | Personal Income (MoM)(Apr) | 0.4% | 0 | 0.4% | 0.3% | ||||
08:30 | USD | Personal Spending(Apr) | 0.8% | 1.71 | 0.4% | 0.1% | ||||
08:30 | USD | Wholesale Inventories(Apr) PREL | -0.2% | -1.47 | 0% | 0% | ||||
10:00 | USD | Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index(May) TRADE NOW | 59.2 | 0.61 | 57.7 | 57.7 | ||||
10:00 | USD | UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation(May) | 3.1% | - | - | 3.2% |
Hopefully they prove the market right in Wa.What a run into the weekend. Very nice.