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Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

No disrespect to anyone and the reality is that no one knows what the future holds. However, the tea leaves say that rates will be higher for longer, and that is essentially bad for almost any stock that has thrived in the last 20+ years. Big tech wont work again until rates come back down, some tech will never come back, essentially any growth play is unlikely to work.
 
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SpikeUM said:
No disrespect to anyone and the reality is that no one knows what the future holds. However, the tea leaves say that rates will be higher for longer, and that is essentially bad for almost any stock that has thrived in the last 20+ years. Big tech wont work again until rates come back down, some tech will never come back, essentially any growth play is unlikely to work.
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I’m not sure I agree completely. Big tech is massively complex business. Amazon runs a ton of different ventures under the umbrella. Microsoft does the same. Meta and alphabet the same. What those companies can’t do is roll up new ventures nearly as easily but that isn’t an issue right now. All of those big tech companies along with hundreds of others can focus on better integrations, dropping costs, and increasing profits until rates drop allowing them to ignore all antitrust laws to roll up whatever they want. Now if you want to discuss the potential of antitrust law enforcement causing big tech to fail…I’m all ears.

Let’s assume the FED keeps rates above 5-6% for 12-18 months, how is that really going to hurt those companies? They may shut down some subsidiaries that are grossly underperforming. They may have to cut back on payroll.

I’ll throw on interesting twist on this: technology in general is one of our best deflationary tools outside of cheaper labor not in China. Cold fusion, battery tech, ev cars, AI, chips, robotics… the current iPhone is tens of thousands of times more powerful than the supercomputers of the 1970s. The supercomputers of the 1970s would take an army of humans just to operate let alone program not to mention the electric bill for a massive building.

I literally can’t think of a single big tech company that is going to fail outside of potentially Tesla which I consider a hybrid tech/car/home company simply because they are still trying to grow with a massive capital need to build factories. Most software tech has extremely low capital needs outside of M&A. Sure some raise capital to speed up growth but those are higher risk software ideas IMO.
 
90scane said:
I’m not sure I agree completely. Big tech is massively complex business. Amazon runs a ton of different ventures under the umbrella. Microsoft does the same. Meta and alphabet the same. What those companies can’t do is roll up new ventures nearly as easily but that isn’t an issue right now. All of those big tech companies along with hundreds of others can focus on better integrations, dropping costs, and increasing profits until rates drop allowing them to ignore all antitrust laws to roll up whatever they want. Now if you want to discuss the potential of antitrust law enforcement causing big tech to fail…I’m all ears.

Let’s assume the FED keeps rates above 5-6% for 12-18 months, how is that really going to hurt those companies? They may shut down some subsidiaries that are grossly underperforming. They may have to cut back on payroll.

I’ll throw on interesting twist on this: technology in general is one of our best deflationary tools outside of cheaper labor not in China. Cold fusion, battery tech, ev cars, AI, chips, robotics… the current iPhone is tens of thousands of times more powerful than the supercomputers of the 1970s. The supercomputers of the 1970s would take an army of humans just to operate let alone program not to mention the electric bill for a massive building.

I literally can’t think of a single big tech company that is going to fail outside of potentially Tesla which I consider a hybrid tech/car/home company simply because they are still trying to grow with a massive capital need to build factories. Most software tech has extremely low capital needs outside of M&A. Sure some raise capital to speed up growth but those are higher risk software ideas IMO.
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I agree with you, I was referring more to the stock prices of large tech in the near future. Smaller tech I still see in trouble (Zoom, etc) and maybe even a Meta might be.

p.s. Its also good to bear in mind that most of the folks on here should probably not be investing in cold fusion, robotics, etc.
 
SpikeUM said:
I agree with you, I was referring more to the stock prices of large tech in the near future. Smaller tech I still see in trouble (Zoom, etc) and maybe even a Meta might be.

p.s. Its also good to bear in mind that most of the folks on here should probably not be investing in cold fusion, robotics, etc.
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If anyone is investing in cold fusion, they likely aren’t on this website. Lol

Smaller tech is not public IMO. I’m not seeing that capital dry up as of now.

Small cap companies like zoom, docusign, etc could struggle as startup entries in their markets will grab market share. I could see other companies go private, example Lucid which is now practically owned by Saudi Arabia.

100% agree that large cap tech stock prices will be dropping.
 
DEFINITION OF A SANTA CLAUS RALLY:
A Santa Claus rally refers to the stock market's tendency to rally in the last five trading sessions of a calendar year and the first two sessions of the next year.
Kamala Harris Yes GIF by The Democrats
 
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SpikeUM said:
The 10 year creeping up on 4% is not a good omen.
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I'm ok with it creeping up as I see the FED raising another .5-1 before they have to pause. I think the slowing and pause will force the 10yr downward some while the spread compresses leading to lower mortgage and loan rates. That is the closest thing we can get to a soft landing IMO. Equities will get hammered south more as it extends the hawkish position of the FED into '24 especially if inflation doesn't cool as some expect and most hope.

Not sure how correct this guy is but he does raise an interesting point about inflation and our demographics:


Yes, this could be in the inflation discussion as well.
 
U.S. stocks polished off their worst year since 2008 with a loss on Friday, bringing the year-to-date decline for the S&P 500 to 19.4%, its largest calendar-year drop since 2008, Dow Jones Market Data show. The same holds true for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which shed 8.8% this year, and the Nasdaq Composite, which lost 33.1%
 
Two big tech that weathered well: Visa and master card. While almost all other fintech tanked, these two didn’t. Even if we head into a recession, these two could remain viable as consumers will continue to buy using credit. If inflation runs high for the decade, these two will see a volume increase and may be able to control costs to increase profits.
 
90scane said:
Two big tech that weathered well: Visa and master card. While almost all other fintech tanked, these two didn’t. Even if we head into a recession, these two could remain viable as consumers will continue to buy using credit. If inflation runs high for the decade, these two will see a volume increase and may be able to control costs to increase profits.
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I read many reports, [and opinions are like azzholes because they all stink], saying inflation will be down to 3% by EOY.
This week we will see a big drop in payroll numbers, while manufacturing will be below 50. Any number under 50 shows a slowdown, but not a collapse. I have no idea how the market will react, but I hope it’s enough for the Fed to not hike rates.
Some Stocks are marked so far down, that I think we will see a positive 2023 in the market.
JMO.
 
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TheEye said:
1 year treasury bond at 4.75% is pretty appealing and it matures around the time of the predicted recession.
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That what a number of us have been shouting about for a while, its why growth has been underperforming
 
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mr.h said:
I read many reports, [and opinions are like azzholes because they all stink], saying inflation will be down to 3% by EOY.
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I asked earlier for some dovish comments and got nothing. You seem to be the only person that believes inflation will be down in 2023. I literally can't find anything online that says inflation will be at 3%. Most everything I find says they aren't sure or think it will be around 5% before the FED has to pivot.
 
90scane said:
I asked earlier for some dovish comments and got nothing. You seem to be the only person that believes inflation will be down in 2023. I literally can't find anything online that says inflation will be at 3%. Most everything I find says they aren't sure or think it will be around 5% before the FED has to pivot.
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I have showed many positive reports that I have read and posted. You can look back and see. I‘m busy now, but will continue to post from reliable sources. My last two posts from December 23 is where I found artIcles related to increasingly lower inflation in 2023. Prices are dropping. Personally, a business that I am passively involved in is seeing easier access to supply and record orders In travel related business, both nationally and internationally…After a bear market comes a bull market…always.
 
Lets see what the 10 am employment numbers say, a couple of positive TINY shoots are rates coming back down hard and gold surging.
 
Re the inflation discussion, it should come down in 2023, but how much is the question. If the labor market is still not cooling enough, food is not moderating and we have a shortage of housing, there is only limited room.
 
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