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Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

Oil hanging around $70 bbl
tomorrow we see the Producer Price Index and consumer sentiment

The Producer Price Index ex Food & energy released by the Bureau of Labor statistics, Department of Labor measures the average changes in prices in primary markets of the US by producers of commodities in all states of processing.
We should see a drop.
 
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Jim Cramer Says Economy Could Be Headed For Soft Landing Despite What Bears Say: 'Doesn't Have To Be A Recession'​

Bhavik Nair

Stockmarket commentator Jim Cramer said on Thursday that despite what Wall Street bears might believe, the economy could be on its way toward a soft landing, according to a CNBC report.


“It doesn’t have to be a recession. The economy just needs to stabilize at a lower level, which I think is already starting to happen. This is the winning hand that nobody playing the recession parlor game seems willing to acknowledge, even as I bet it’s become the most likely outcome,” he said.
 
November PPI higher than expected. Down from previous month but higher than consensus .
Mkt initially drops. Let’s see what happens after the mkt digests the numbers.
 
SpikeUM said:
Keep your excess cash in a brokerage account, not at a bank.

www.wsj.com

The $42 Billion Question: Why Aren’t Americans Ditching Big Banks?

Big banks still pay next to nothing on savings, but their customers aren’t yet moving much money to higher-yielding alternatives.
www.wsj.com www.wsj.com
Click to expand...
Good God. The debate is 0.24% vs. 0.02%?

Bonds are destroying that return. I guess it’s all in the name o liquidity.

“And U.S. savers have likely missed out on much more than $600 billion because the average rate the five biggest banks have paid over the past eight years, 0.24%, includes higher-yielding money-market accounts and some business accounts. Traditional savings accounts paid an average rate of 0.02% at the five largest banks during that period. The FDIC doesn’t separate traditional savings and money-market deposits in its record-keeping.”
 
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SpikeUM said:
After a rally some time next year, the second shoe drops: Yes, I think it (inflation) will be double digits. I think the price of oil goes up in 2024-25 and could easily trade near $200. And that gives you a CPI in 2025 of over 10%. And, of course, bond yields will also move up then, from late ’23 onward in the next cycle.
Click to expand...

Is there more to this? I understand that Deglobalization leads to Inflation but the FED is destroying demand. I have to assume they believe the FED isn’t destroying but postponing demand thus once the rates drop demand will pop up higher than 2021-2022.
 
Weather Channel
The Keystone pipeline has closed due to spillage of tar sands oil.
@SpikeUM
 
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90scane said:
Is there more to this? I understand that Deglobalization leads to Inflation but the FED is destroying demand. I have to assume they believe the FED isn’t destroying but postponing demand thus once the rates drop demand will pop up higher than 2021-2022.
Click to expand...

The link to the article is above, its more lack of supply to meet future demand. US employees more expensive than Chinese, looming huge oil shortage, many key raw materials controlled by "the bad guys", etc. etc.
I
 
TheEye said:
Good God. The debate is 0.24% vs. 0.02%?

Bonds are destroying that return. I guess it’s all in the name o liquidity.

“And U.S. savers have likely missed out on much more than $600 billion because the average rate the five biggest banks have paid over the past eight years, 0.24%, includes higher-yielding money-market accounts and some business accounts. Traditional savings accounts paid an average rate of 0.02% at the five largest banks during that period. The FDIC doesn’t separate traditional savings and money-market deposits in its record-keeping.”
Click to expand...

Check my post on rates.
 
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Buckle Up: Signs Now Point to Higher Rates—and a Harder Landing​

(If it were my headline, I would take out the word "now" and substitute "Continue"

www.barrons.com

Buckle Up: Signs Now Point to Higher Rates—and a Harder Landing

The message the economy is sending now is that the Fed will probably have to raise interest rates beyond the roughly 5% range markets are expecting.
www.barrons.com www.barrons.com
 
CPI Tuesday
Fed Rate Decision Wednesday
what would happen if we are nearly finished with rate hikes, but keep them higher longer?
Fed chair tomorrow at 2:00
 
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Going to say the damage is done. Recession by Q2. Stocks aren’t factoring in a real recession thus 3000-3300 by Q3/q4 2023 with lots of ups and downs over the year.

inflation will remain high
Fed will raise rates
If Jan/Feb cpi cools off, they raise by .25-.50. We end up around 5.5 by May when they pause as we are also in the recession with unemployment numbers getting worse.
By Q423/Q124, Fed has to drop rates and by Q424 rates are back to 2%.
 
90scane said:
Going to say the damage is done. Recession by Q2. Stocks aren’t factoring in a real recession thus 3000-3300 by Q3/q4 2023 with lots of ups and downs over the year.

inflation will remain high
Fed will raise rates
If Jan/Feb cpi cools off, they raise by .25-.50. We end up around 5.5 by May when they pause as we are also in the recession with unemployment numbers getting worse.
By Q423/Q124, Fed has to drop rates and by Q424 rates are back to 2%.
Click to expand...
I hope the mkt. takes that as the worse is over and remember the CPI is backward looking. I’m watching month to month and year to year ex-food and energy, although energy has dropped.
 
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Inflation moderating…
13:30USDConsumer Price Index (MoM)(Nov)0.1% -0.3%0.4%

Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)(Nov)6% -6.1%6.3%


Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)(Nov)0.2% -0.3%0.3%

Santa Rally a little more certain, imo
Fed Chair tomorrow at 2:00.
 
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mr.h said:
Inflation moderating…
13:30USDConsumer Price Index (MoM)(Nov)0.1% -0.3%0.4%

Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)(Nov)6% -6.1%6.3%


Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)(Nov)0.2% -0.3%0.3%

Santa Rally a little more certain, imo
Fed Chair tomorrow at 2:00.
Click to expand...
The .5% hike looks imminent.
 
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