The stories in the WSJ about FTX (and the supposed "smart" money) are truly astounding.
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The stories in the WSJ about FTX (and the supposed "smart" money) are truly astounding.
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Block Chain technology will likely get used by the banking industry in time. Will that mean the USD coin is smart money?
Just look at the FED, they are losing billions due to their own rate hikes. Their holdings are around 2% yet they are paying banks 4% to deposit funds at the FED. Gee, I wonder how that gets covered? Printing more money which means higher than 2% inflation and the likelihood of continued stagflation much like 2022.
Moving to blockchain doesn't solve the FED problem but it does help reduce the total amount of deposits being held for pending transactions. It does speed up the flow of funds. It does give banks less overhead related to KYC. It does allow for 24/7 banking which has some pros (I can pay someone anytime without waiting for the bank hours and FED hours) and cons (a run on the bank can happen any time so people won't be as interested in holding funds in banks thus a massive drop off in deposits which are used for funding debt). Interesting times ahead.
mr.h
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Benzinga:
Crude Oil Futures Cave During The Show: The discussion was instigated by the steep decline toward the end of the show. In fact, the December contract, which peaked earlier in the week at $89.25, was dipping into the $70 handle for the first time since Oct. 3.
Related Link: Biden The Master Oil Trader? Crude Drops Below $80 And US Government May Earn Windfall On Emergency Reserves, Relieving Pain At The Pump..
Crude Oil Futures Cave During The Show: The discussion was instigated by the steep decline toward the end of the show. In fact, the December contract, which peaked earlier in the week at $89.25, was dipping into the $70 handle for the first time since Oct. 3.
Related Link: Biden The Master Oil Trader? Crude Drops Below $80 And US Government May Earn Windfall On Emergency Reserves, Relieving Pain At The Pump..
WOW
www.cnbc.com
Bob Iger returns as Disney CEO, replacing Bob Chapek after a brief, tumultuous tenure
Bob Iger is back as CEO of Disney. Bob Chapek, who replaced Iger in 2020, is out after a brutal earnings report that sowed further doubt about his leadership.
Recession
www.wsj.com
As Savings Slowly Shrink, Consumer Spending Is on Borrowed Time
How long can the savings consumers built up during the pandemic keep their spending going? About nine to 12 more months.
www.wsj.com
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China's "official" Covid cases have ballooned recently, leading to fears of more lockdowns and lower economic activity.
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I also posted this in the inflation thread:
From ML Research Today:
Our top five (Commodity) themes:
1. Supply constraints finely balanced against recession risks
2. Brent crude could hit $110/bbl, diesel exceed $200/bbl
3. NYMEX US nat gas prices should drop below $5/MMBtu
4. Copper could hit $12,000/t and gold could exceed $2,000/oz
5. Add commodities for inflation hedging, diversification, and positive roll returns
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WOW
Bob Iger returns as Disney CEO, replacing Bob Chapek after a brief, tumultuous tenure
Bob Iger is back as CEO of Disney. Bob Chapek, who replaced Iger in 2020, is out after a brutal earnings report that sowed further doubt about his leadership.
Based on the early trading, the market seems to like the move. Can't say I blame them. In his 11 months as CEO Disney's stock is down like 40%.
mr.h
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Interesting Fed Speech today
Fed Speech Today - Mary C Daly
This and other forward guidance provided throughout that fall had an immediate impact. Almost overnight, financial conditions tightened. Market participants began pricing in expected future rate hikes, and businesses and households started readying themselves for a new interest rate landscape, pulling forward real estate purchases, restructuring debt obligations, and locking in longer-term fixed-rate loans. In other words, before we ever raised the federal funds rate, tighter financial conditions were already working their way through the system (Figure 1). Indeed, by the time of the first official rate hike of 25 basis points in March 2022, mortgage interest rates had risen three-quarters of a percentage point and broader financial conditions had tightened almost a full percentage point.
A more comprehensive way to gauge the actual level of tightening is to look at financial market conditions.10 Several researchers have done this and found that the level of financial tightening in the economy is much higher than what the funds rate tells us. As the figure shows, this has been true for a while now (Figure 2). In fact today, while the funds rate is between 3.75 and 4 percent, financial markets are acting like it is around 6 percent.
As we make decisions about further rate adjustments, it will be important to remain conscious of this gap between the federal funds rate and the tightening in financial markets. Ignoring it raises the chances of tightening too much.
While resolute and mindful are not in conflict, there is a tension. And that’s what we want in policymaking.
We want to go far enough that we get the job done. That’s the resolute part. But not so far that we overdo it. And that’s the mindful part.
So, we will march unwaveringly toward our goals. Resolute and mindful, until the job is fully done
IMO she is sounding a little more dovish at this point. Kinda like ahead of where we are In lower inflation.
Fed Speech Today - Mary C Daly
This and other forward guidance provided throughout that fall had an immediate impact. Almost overnight, financial conditions tightened. Market participants began pricing in expected future rate hikes, and businesses and households started readying themselves for a new interest rate landscape, pulling forward real estate purchases, restructuring debt obligations, and locking in longer-term fixed-rate loans. In other words, before we ever raised the federal funds rate, tighter financial conditions were already working their way through the system (Figure 1). Indeed, by the time of the first official rate hike of 25 basis points in March 2022, mortgage interest rates had risen three-quarters of a percentage point and broader financial conditions had tightened almost a full percentage point.
A more comprehensive way to gauge the actual level of tightening is to look at financial market conditions.10 Several researchers have done this and found that the level of financial tightening in the economy is much higher than what the funds rate tells us. As the figure shows, this has been true for a while now (Figure 2). In fact today, while the funds rate is between 3.75 and 4 percent, financial markets are acting like it is around 6 percent.
As we make decisions about further rate adjustments, it will be important to remain conscious of this gap between the federal funds rate and the tightening in financial markets. Ignoring it raises the chances of tightening too much.
While resolute and mindful are not in conflict, there is a tension. And that’s what we want in policymaking.
We want to go far enough that we get the job done. That’s the resolute part. But not so far that we overdo it. And that’s the mindful part.
So, we will march unwaveringly toward our goals. Resolute and mindful, until the job is fully done
IMO she is sounding a little more dovish at this point. Kinda like ahead of where we are In lower inflation.
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crazy to think that 2 months ago i sold TSLA @ 300. If it breaches 160 it may go to 150 or below. i might even be interested @ 150.
I love Tesla but man they take forever and a day to release new cars.
They need a ton of capital to build factories. Capital isn't easy right now AND they don't seem to be as focused as I'd like. Robots vs cars. Solar vs Cars. Just get the semi, cyber truck, and roadster into mass production.
mr.h
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Saudi Arabia is reportedly considering boosting oil production just days after the US said it wanted to shield Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman from civil litigation linked to his alleged role in the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
Getty Images (3)
Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members are reportedly considering a boost in oil production just days after the Biden administration said it favors shielding Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman from civil litigation related to the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
A production increase of up to 500,000 barrels a day is now under discussion for OPEC+’s Dec. 4 meeting, delegates said, according to the Wall Street Journal.
The increase in production would help offset the effects of the embargo on Russia oil.
I guess they need our weapons..lol
Getty Images (3)
Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members are reportedly considering a boost in oil production just days after the Biden administration said it favors shielding Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman from civil litigation related to the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
A production increase of up to 500,000 barrels a day is now under discussion for OPEC+’s Dec. 4 meeting, delegates said, according to the Wall Street Journal.
The increase in production would help offset the effects of the embargo on Russia oil.
I guess they need our weapons..lol
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mr.h
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Today we see
durable goods..up
Initial jobless claims..up
S&P global manufacturing and services..47.6 **
S&P global services..46***
Michigan consumer Sentiment..56.8 up
any number over 50 shows growth
I believe numbers will be lower which shows the Fed rate hikes can be lessened.
we will definitely see an economic slowdown.
WTI Crude @ 78.78
Housing up
5 year inflation expectations @3%
A mixed bag of economic indicators
And the mkt turns up…lol
durable goods..up
Initial jobless claims..up
S&P global manufacturing and services..47.6 **
S&P global services..46***
Michigan consumer Sentiment..56.8 up
any number over 50 shows growth
I believe numbers will be lower which shows the Fed rate hikes can be lessened.
we will definitely see an economic slowdown.
WTI Crude @ 78.78
Housing up
5 year inflation expectations @3%
A mixed bag of economic indicators
And the mkt turns up…lol
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mr.h
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Fox Business News
Federal Reserve officials agreed at their November meeting that smaller interest rate hikes are appropriate in coming months as they weigh the impact that tighter policy is having on the broader U.S. economy.
Minutes from the U.S. central bank's Nov. 1-2 meeting released on Wednesday showed that policymakers anticipate downshifting the pace of rate increases soon, even though they see little signs of inflation abating. However, some committee members expressed concern about possible risks to the economy from higher rates and suggested a slower pace could allow them to assess progress on their goals. Others said they would like to wait before easing up on the pace of increases.
"A substantial majority of participants judged that a slowing in the pace of increase would likely soon be appropriate," the minutes said ."The uncertain lags and magnitudes associated with the effects of monetary policy actions on economic activity and inflation were among the reasons cited regarding why such an assessment was important."
Traders now expect the Fed to approve a 50 basis point rate increase in December, following four consecutive 75 basis point increases in June, July, September and November.
I‘m still expecting a Christmas rally.
Fed officials anticipate slower interest rate hikes coming 'soon,' minutes show
Federal Reserve officials agreed at their November meeting that smaller interest rate hikes are appropriate in coming months as they weigh the impact that tighter policy is having on the broader U.S. economy.
Minutes from the U.S. central bank's Nov. 1-2 meeting released on Wednesday showed that policymakers anticipate downshifting the pace of rate increases soon, even though they see little signs of inflation abating. However, some committee members expressed concern about possible risks to the economy from higher rates and suggested a slower pace could allow them to assess progress on their goals. Others said they would like to wait before easing up on the pace of increases.
"A substantial majority of participants judged that a slowing in the pace of increase would likely soon be appropriate," the minutes said ."The uncertain lags and magnitudes associated with the effects of monetary policy actions on economic activity and inflation were among the reasons cited regarding why such an assessment was important."
Traders now expect the Fed to approve a 50 basis point rate increase in December, following four consecutive 75 basis point increases in June, July, September and November.
I‘m still expecting a Christmas rally.
TheEye
Mario and Dan are upgrades. Period.
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Question of the ages. If they invented this thing and it turned out to be harmless, they needlessly shot their economy in the foot.
TheEye
Mario and Dan are upgrades. Period.
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What a humanitarian.
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