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Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

SpikeUM said:
If the answer was that easy, we would all be super rich, but generally, these things take time. For example, the Great Recession was 2007-2009, and most of that was a bear market. I have been super bearish for a year, so I get it, but said another way, be patient.
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I sold everything and went cash in Feb 2020 at that peak. I was bearish then as debt to GDP wasn't pretty. No one can predict how this is going to unfold but I do believe the ten-plus-year run is over and we have to have a major recession. I just think the FED is likely already overdoing it in terms of the speed and size of the hikes. If they went slower OR smaller, inflation would remain higher (potentially keep growing) BUT the global economy would have more time to adjust. Since they are moving this fast, more and more things will start breaking especially overseas which will impact the U.S.A. Those CBs will be selling USDs and the FED wants to but who can buy them...no one. With all that said, I do think the FED will keep rates as high as they can without causing a banking failure with no regard for the stock market. They are simply looking at unemployment, credit markets, and inflation.
 
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Earning season may surprise us on the upside. We are deep in oversold territory.
 
wspcane said:
@SpikeUM @Cryptical Envelopment and others. I was a little too young in my investing journey to remember 2008 or the dot com burst. But I guess my question is have other dips in the market and starts to recessions/bear markets felt this long winded and pronounced or were they a bit more sudden, kind of like the Covid flash crash? It almost felt like everyone has kind of been waiting for this to happen. I don't know about willing it. But this feels like the scene in Austin Powers where he is driving the truck in slow motion and the guy keeps yelling waiting for it to hit him.
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www.macrotrends.net

S&P 500 Index - 90 Year Historical Chart

Interactive chart of the S&P 500 stock market index since 1927. Historical data is inflation-adjusted using the headline CPI and each data point represents the month-end closing value. The current month is updated on an hourly basis with today's latest value.
www.macrotrends.net www.macrotrends.net
 
Cryptical Envelopment said:
www.macrotrends.net

S&P 500 Index - 90 Year Historical Chart

Interactive chart of the S&P 500 stock market index since 1927. Historical data is inflation-adjusted using the headline CPI and each data point represents the month-end closing value. The current month is updated on an hourly basis with today's latest value.
www.macrotrends.net www.macrotrends.net
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Thank you for the chart. My concern since last year has been that we are back in the '70's; an incompetent President (Carter/Brandon), an energy crisis (embargo/self induced now), high/runaway inflation, a Fed that waited too long, etc. etc. Coupled with a fiscally incompetent Congress and a $31 Trillion deficit, stagflation is a very real possibility. Look at that '70's chart.
 
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No one wants to cut spending and no one wants higher taxes. So raising interest rates help consumers save and not spend.
 
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Major companies race to buy back stocks ahead of new corporate tax​

Major corporations are scrambling to repurchase their own shares before a new tax on stock buybacks passed as part of Democrats’ major spending bill over the summer goes into effect, an effort that may sap one of the bill’s main sources of revenue.


Stock buybacks occur when a company buys its own shares, taking them out of the marketplace, which increases the value of the earnings-per-share and makes each outstanding share worth more money.

A basic arithmetic trick, buybacks were illegal until 1982 and have long been blasted by critics as a legal form of market manipulation and a way for executives to pay themselves more.

Companies have also been hiring investment banks to expedite their buybacks ahead of the new IRA tax in a method known as an “accelerated share repurchase” program. Using investment banks to buy back stocks allows companies “to immediately purchase a large number of common shares,” according to an analysis of the technique by accounting firm Price Waterhouse Coopers.

The repurchase programs totaled $1.5 billion in stock and amounted to about $15 million in avoided taxes, according to the tally.

“Every dollar that a wealthy corporation dodges in taxes with loopholes like offshore tax havens or accelerated share repurchase programs is a dollar taken away from deficit reduction or priorities that help save consumers money,” Accountable US spokesperson Liz Zelnick said in a statement. “Policy makers should build on the Inflation Reduction Act’s impact to rein in greedy behavior that’s costing average families dearly and ensure those who profiteer are paying their fair share in taxes, which helps reduce inflation.”

Buybacks have faced bipartisan resistance in the past, with both Democrats and Republicans advancing proposals to rein them in.

Bottom line it’s done to avoid taxes, but shareholders benefit.
 
I believe todays jump is because of us still having a strong economy and inflation is going down, slowly but surely, and the belief that there will be SOME good earnings in certain sectors. Christmas is coming and consumers have cash.
Ima eternal optimist. :crownpour:
 
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mr.h said:
I believe todays jump is because of us still having a strong economy and inflation is going down, slowly but surely, and the belief that there will be SOME good earnings in certain sectors. Christmas is coming and consumers have cash.
Ima eternal optimist. :crownpour:
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A lot of sales going into the holidays . Maybe that helps the CPI?
 
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