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Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

SpikeUM said:
Remember that inflation is reported year over year. So if oil goes from $30 to $90 a barrel in year one, and stays at $90 in year two, the inflation rate on that might be zero, but you are still paying $90 a barrel. So I do expect inflation to moderate, but it will still be well above 2%, unless there is a hard landing.
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I don’t think the Fed is looking for deflationary pressure. Yes, prices will be higher in 2023 than in 2021, but that’s to be expected.
 
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The rally is awesome, but its predicated on inflation moderating and the Fed slowing down their hikes - neither is for sure at this point
 
SpikeUM said:
The rally is awesome, but its predicated on inflation moderating and the Fed slowing down their hikes - neither is for sure at this point
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But it feels good. I think by the eoy that inflation will have dropped noticeably.
 
SpikeUM said:
I would be careful with the short, we are due/overdue for a short covering rally. Cash is king right now, the problem/issue is when do you get back in. I have been super bearish for a year now, so that is a question I keep asking myself.

Best answer I can give for now is to keep with the textbook. Dont fight the Fed, stay conservative, and per the technicals, nibble now, start buying at 3300, and gorge at 3000.
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Why would you not fight the Fed yet buy at 3300 and 3000? If the FED wants to keep fighting inflation and inflation isn't going down, the markets will keep dropping past 3000. No?

For the record, I'm all cash, real estate, and small business investments at this point.
 
90scane said:
Why would you not fight the Fed yet buy at 3300 and 3000? If the FED wants to keep fighting inflation and inflation isn't going down, the markets will keep dropping past 3000. No?

For the record, I'm all cash, real estate, and small business investments at this point.
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I am not sure I understand your question. I am mostly in private equity real estate (not REITS), cash and oil. At some point I will put more cash to work in the public equity markets.
 
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ADP employment employment change up for September..+208,000 jobs
ISM services is the next, which shows the state of our non manufacturing sector
Any number above 50 shows growth
 
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ISM services are all up..non-manufacturing business conditions..we still have a strong economy.
 
SpikeUM said:
I am not sure I understand your question. I am mostly in private equity real estate (not REITS), cash and oil. At some point I will put more cash to work in the public equity markets.
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Why are you buying at 3000-3300? I assume it is due to the fact the FED would be getting close to their stated 2% inflation target with rates being 2% below PCE. I'm not sure I'll even put my cash to work in the public equities markets. Too much risk for the 20-25% before tax reward on most investments. If I do, I'd buy the dip if the FED goes with .75+.75 in Nov/Dec.
 
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nice little comeback. Let's see if it holds for the last hour.

Volatile, but the Vix dropped below 30
 
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Nintendo split shares coming in tomorrow per ameritrade. 10:1

If anyone has ameritrade they are increasing the fee for OTC shares in November. From like $7 to 44+$7
 
90scane said:
Why are you buying at 3000-3300? I assume it is due to the fact the FED would be getting close to their stated 2% inflation target with rates being 2% below PCE. I'm not sure I'll even put my cash to work in the public equities markets. Too much risk for the 20-25% before tax reward on most investments. If I do, I'd buy the dip if the FED goes with .75+.75 in Nov/Dec.
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Think of how much more a drop to those levels would be....also inflation is not getting to 2% under this administration, but once the rates starts going down and staying down, the market will rally.
 
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SpikeUM said:
Think of how much more a drop to those levels would be....also inflation is not getting to 2% under this administration, but once the rates starts going down and staying down, the market will rally.
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Getting from 3800 to 3300 would be an additional 10% or 30% drop YTD. What happens if EPS start dropping, unemployment stays strong and inflation stays at 6%….the fed won’t be able to drop rates leading to the rally. The market has likely already assumed 4.5% is the peak of the Fed Funds so if they get to 4.5% by December and inflation isn’t down…I would expect the Fed to keep going which is when the bond market breaks OR the equity markets drop below 3300. With opec cutting supply and most governments unwilling to cut spending, we aren’t likely to see inflation slow. Thus, pain will continue until something breaks OR unemployment goes up. No?
 
Jobless claim #’s are up. That’s what the Fed wants to see, but in perspective it’s still low.
Tomorrow is non-farm payrolls. Early indicators point to +200,000.
 
90scane said:
Getting from 3800 to 3300 would be an additional 10% or 30% drop YTD. What happens if EPS start dropping, unemployment stays strong and inflation stays at 6%….the fed won’t be able to drop rates leading to the rally. The market has likely already assumed 4.5% is the peak of the Fed Funds so if they get to 4.5% by December and inflation isn’t down…I would expect the Fed to keep going which is when the bond market breaks OR the equity markets drop below 3300. With opec cutting supply and most governments unwilling to cut spending, we aren’t likely to see inflation slow. Thus, pain will continue until something breaks OR unemployment goes up. No?
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The market is anticipatory, the reason its down so much is that its already taking into account many of the points you mentioned.
 
Whatever the talking heads are saying, I think OPEC cuts are hurting us now. We need to think twice when the Saudis need weapons or any security help. Let them ask Putin.
 
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