- Joined
- Jan 15, 2012
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I’m hearing this from. Lots of people.Michael Bury thinks we see supply chain glut and deflation forcing fed rate cuts. Will be interesting.
I’m hearing this from. Lots of people.Michael Bury thinks we see supply chain glut and deflation forcing fed rate cuts. Will be interesting.
I can see the argument for that, but I dont see inflation getting anywhere near 2% with the structural shortages in housing, energy, metals, semis, etc., so the Fed has to keep raising until demand destruction, maybe even stagflation.Michael Bury thinks we see supply chain glut and deflation forcing fed rate cuts. Will be interesting.
Copper getting rocked. LME in backwardation, Spread on LME vs Comex widening. The speed of this price decline may help ease some demand destruction.With lumber, oil and other commodities down substantially, plus a huge drop in the 10 year and consumer confidence, I am less bearish now than I have been for a long time (about the market, not the economy), but I havent changed my September/October timetable to add risk - YET
Americans Have Had It With Inflation
Unable or unwilling to stomach higher prices, many Americans are starting to forgo some purchases and outings—even the smallest luxuries: “I kind of second guess if I really needed to get this extra pack of chips.”www.wsj.com
Been buying XOM puts over the last three weeks.
Great move, my sense is cash them in though, China is still partially shut down, Russia is using energy as a weapon, and the administration still hates the industry.
Sold today ~$7.10 avg. Will look to buy back if XOM spikes hard.
Give them 2 years of eating darden food, shopping at walmarts and going to county fairs and theyll come crawling back.Long term megatrend I have mentioned before.
Big Cities Can’t Get Workers Back to the Office
Occupancy is especially low in cities like New York, where workers are the engine of local economies. Among the concerns are crime and commute times.www.wsj.com