Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

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Michael Bury thinks we see supply chain glut and deflation forcing fed rate cuts. Will be interesting.
I can see the argument for that, but I dont see inflation getting anywhere near 2% with the structural shortages in housing, energy, metals, semis, etc., so the Fed has to keep raising until demand destruction, maybe even stagflation.
 
With lumber, oil and other commodities down substantially, plus a huge drop in the 10 year and consumer confidence, I am less bearish now than I have been for a long time (about the market, not the economy), but I havent changed my September/October timetable to add risk - YET

 
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With lumber, oil and other commodities down substantially, plus a huge drop in the 10 year and consumer confidence, I am less bearish now than I have been for a long time (about the market, not the economy), but I havent changed my September/October timetable to add risk - YET

Copper getting rocked. LME in backwardation, Spread on LME vs Comex widening. The speed of this price decline may help ease some demand destruction.
 
Wednesday ISM
Thursday jobless rate and adt employment
Friday payrolls and unemployment rate..
 
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Earlier in this thread I mentioned the megatrend of migration to the Sun Belt, which was exacerbated by Covid.

 
ISM Services beat..non- manufacturing businesses
JOLT Jobs beat
Any number over 50 means growth. We still have a strong job number.
 
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Jobless claims…I don’t think we’ll see any major jumps in either direction. It’s hard to imagine a deep recession when we are creating jobs..
Job numbers tomorrow.
 
Non-farm payrolls…372,000 jobs…a beat
Unemployment rate..3.6%
Earnings beat=wage gains
All better than expected. I can’t see a major recession. Soft landing is still possible
 
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Long term megatrend I have mentioned before.

Give them 2 years of eating darden food, shopping at walmarts and going to county fairs and theyll come crawling back.
 
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