Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

[Cribby]

It feels like It’s going to be a blood bath today

 

[who]

So much FUD in the crypto market this morning but nice recovery so far. This almost feels like it was coordinated. Hope you all were able to buy this morning. Still early on in the bull run, best is yet to come. Point of worry will be if BTC goes under 27k imo.

 

[CFLCane]

So much FUD in the crypto market this morning but nice recovery so far. This almost feels like it was coordinated. Hope you all were able to buy this morning. Still early on in the bull run, best is yet to come. I believe the start of a bear market will be if BTC reaches ~27k.

China has banned crypto for the 400th time lol. The news cycle on bitcoin is as predictable as Dan Enos.

 

[George84]

this is circulating on Twitter re: coordination of sell off

 

[AutoCANE]

this is circulating on Twitter re: coordination of sell off

I trust that information less than the info that was being peddled by that fake Dan Sileo guy in recruiting, or BigConch on Grassy

 

[CFLCane]

@Cryptical Envelopmenta

Edit : fixed a formula error, reposted chart

Put together a quick spread sheet to model out potential share prices based on different MCF Prices, Successful Wells, and Revenue Multiples. I'd expect average MCF prices to fall in the 1100/1600 range. Typical revenue multiples in the sector are 7x, I included a 3x model just in case.

Desert Mountain Energy
	Helium Price
Well Count	MCF BASIS	Annual Revenue Per Well	Total Revenue	Revenue 3x	Revenue 7x	Outstanding shares	Share Price w/3x Multiple	Share Price w/7x Multiple
70	275	8,942,000	625,940,000	1,877,820,000	4,381,580,000	59,100,000	$31.77	$74.14
60	275	8,942,000	536,520,000	1,609,560,000	3,755,640,000	59,100,000	$27.23	$63.55
50	275	8,942,000	447,100,000	1,341,300,000	3,129,700,000	59,100,000	$22.70	$52.96
40	275	8,942,000	357,680,000	1,073,040,000	2,503,760,000	59,100,000	$18.16	$42.36
70	550	17,884,000	1,251,880,000	3,755,640,000	8,763,160,000	59,100,000	$63.55	$148.28
60	550	17,884,000	1,073,040,000	3,219,120,000	7,511,280,000	59,100,000	$54.47	$127.09
50	550	17,884,000	894,200,000	2,682,600,000	6,259,400,000	59,100,000	$45.39	$105.91
40	550	17,884,000	715,360,000	2,146,080,000	5,007,520,000	59,100,000	$36.31	$84.73
70	1100	35,768,000	2,503,760,000	7,511,280,000	17,526,320,000	59,100,000	$127.09	$296.55
60	1100	35,768,000	2,146,080,000	6,438,240,000	15,022,560,000	59,100,000	$108.94	$254.19
50	1100	35,768,000	1,788,400,000	5,365,200,000	12,518,800,000	59,100,000	$90.78	$211.82
40	1100	35,768,000	1,430,720,000	4,292,160,000	10,015,040,000	59,100,000	$72.63	$169.46
70	1600	52,025,600	3,641,792,000	10,925,376,000	25,492,544,000	59,100,000	$184.86	$431.35
60	1600	52,025,600	3,121,536,000	9,364,608,000	21,850,752,000	59,100,000	$158.45	$369.73
50	1600	52,025,600	2,601,280,000	7,803,840,000	18,208,960,000	59,100,000	$132.04	$308.10
40	1600	52,025,600	2,081,024,000	6,243,072,000	14,567,168,000	59,100,000	$105.64	$246.48
70	2100	68,283,600	4,779,852,000	14,339,556,000	33,458,964,000	59,100,000	$242.63	$566.14
60	2100	68,283,600	4,097,016,000	12,291,048,000	28,679,112,000	59,100,000	$207.97	$485.26
50	2100	68,283,600	3,414,180,000	10,242,540,000	23,899,260,000	59,100,000	$173.31	$404.39
40	2100	68,283,600	2,731,344,000	8,194,032,000	19,119,408,000	59,100,000	$138.65	$323.51
70	2600	84,541,600	5,917,912,000	17,753,736,000	41,425,384,000	59,100,000	$300.40	$700.94
60	2600	84,541,600	5,072,496,000	15,217,488,000	35,507,472,000	59,100,000	$257.49	$600.80
50	2600	84,541,600	4,227,080,000	12,681,240,000	29,589,560,000	59,100,000	$214.57	$500.67
40	2600	84,541,600	3,381,664,000	10,144,992,000	23,671,648,000	59,100,000	$171.66	$400.54
70	3100	100,799,600	7,055,972,000	21,167,916,000	49,391,804,000	59,100,000	$358.17	$835.73
60	3100	100,799,600	6,047,976,000	18,143,928,000	42,335,832,000	59,100,000	$307.00	$716.34
50	3100	100,799,600	5,039,980,000	15,119,940,000	35,279,860,000	59,100,000	$255.84	$596.95
40	3100	100,799,600	4,031,984,000	12,095,952,000	28,223,888,000	59,100,000	$204.67	$477.56

@Cryptical Envelopment

A few questions answered. Mostly positive. I'm posting a new model to include full dilution of all outstanding warrants and options. (there should only be 10 million or so shares not in circulation after Mondays deadline)

http://www.metalsnews.com/Metals+Ne...Exploring+and+Developing+the+Worlds+Poten.htm

Positives

* Up 18% since mention

*The first 5 wells projected @ 50m quarterly revenue by the VP would dial in our average sale @ 1450 MCF (This was in the range i predicted and much higher than the investor presentation that sandbagged the value @ crude prices of 280 MCF)

*60-70 ONLINE wells projected, not 60-70 attempts (each well only cost 500k, capex not an issue here)

*Full dilution 80 million shares (only potential reason for further dilution I could see is large land purchases/leases to expand past 70 wells, they have a large cash position with revenues coming online soon)

*Their target consumers have agreed to haul their own helium reducing capex.

*Well #4 started yesterday, results around 10 days or so. This will be the current deepest well and other rare earth gasses are expected.


Negatives

*4th QTR start of full production may be delayed by permitting

Well Count	MCF BASIS	Annual Revenue Per Well	Total Revenue	Revenue 3x	Revenue 7x	Outstanding shares	Share Price w/3x Multiple	Share Price w/7x Multiple
70	275	8,942,000	625,940,000	1,877,820,000	4,381,580,000	79,400,000	$23.65	$55.18
60	275	8,942,000	536,520,000	1,609,560,000	3,755,640,000	79,400,000	$20.27	$47.30
50	275	8,942,000	447,100,000	1,341,300,000	3,129,700,000	79,400,000	$16.89	$39.42
40	275	8,942,000	357,680,000	1,073,040,000	2,503,760,000	79,400,000	$13.51	$31.53
70	550	17,884,000	1,251,880,000	3,755,640,000	8,763,160,000	79,400,000	$47.30	$110.37
60	550	17,884,000	1,073,040,000	3,219,120,000	7,511,280,000	79,400,000	$40.54	$94.60
50	550	17,884,000	894,200,000	2,682,600,000	6,259,400,000	79,400,000	$33.79	$78.83
40	550	17,884,000	715,360,000	2,146,080,000	5,007,520,000	79,400,000	$27.03	$63.07
70	1100	35,768,000	2,503,760,000	7,511,280,000	17,526,320,000	79,400,000	$94.60	$220.73
60	1100	35,768,000	2,146,080,000	6,438,240,000	15,022,560,000	79,400,000	$81.09	$189.20
50	1100	35,768,000	1,788,400,000	5,365,200,000	12,518,800,000	79,400,000	$67.57	$157.67
40	1100	35,768,000	1,430,720,000	4,292,160,000	10,015,040,000	79,400,000	$54.06	$126.13
70	1600	52,025,600	3,641,792,000	10,925,376,000	25,492,544,000	79,400,000	$137.60	$321.06
60	1600	52,025,600	3,121,536,000	9,364,608,000	21,850,752,000	79,400,000	$117.94	$275.20
50	1600	52,025,600	2,601,280,000	7,803,840,000	18,208,960,000	79,400,000	$98.29	$229.33
40	1600	52,025,600	2,081,024,000	6,243,072,000	14,567,168,000	79,400,000	$78.63	$183.47
70	2100	68,283,600	4,779,852,000	14,339,556,000	33,458,964,000	79,400,000	$180.60	$421.40
60	2100	68,283,600	4,097,016,000	12,291,048,000	28,679,112,000	79,400,000	$154.80	$361.20
50	2100	68,283,600	3,414,180,000	10,242,540,000	23,899,260,000	79,400,000	$129.00	$301.00
40	2100	68,283,600	2,731,344,000	8,194,032,000	19,119,408,000	79,400,000	$103.20	$240.80
70	2600	84,541,600	5,917,912,000	17,753,736,000	41,425,384,000	79,400,000	$223.60	$521.73
60	2600	84,541,600	5,072,496,000	15,217,488,000	35,507,472,000	79,400,000	$191.66	$447.20
50	2600	84,541,600	4,227,080,000	12,681,240,000	29,589,560,000	79,400,000	$159.71	$372.66
40	2600	84,541,600	3,381,664,000	10,144,992,000	23,671,648,000	79,400,000	$127.77	$298.13
70	3100	100,799,600	7,055,972,000	21,167,916,000	49,391,804,000	79,400,000	$266.60	$622.06
60	3100	100,799,600	6,047,976,000	18,143,928,000	42,335,832,000	79,400,000	$228.51	$533.20
50	3100	100,799,600	5,039,980,000	15,119,940,000	35,279,860,000	79,400,000	$190.43	$444.33
40	3100	100,799,600	4,031,984,000	12,095,952,000	28,223,888,000	79,400,000	$152.34	$355.46

 

[Cryptical Envelopment]

@Cryptical Envelopment

A few questions answered. Mostly positive. I'm posting a new model to include full dilution of all outstanding warrants and options. (there should only be 10 million or so shares not in circulation after Mondays deadline)

http://www.metalsnews.com/Metals+Ne...Exploring+and+Developing+the+Worlds+Poten.htm

Positives

* Up 18% since mention

*The first 5 wells projected @ 50m quarterly revenue by the VP would dial in our average sale @ 1450 MCF (This was in the range i predicted and much higher than the investor presentation that sandbagged the value @ crude prices of 280 MCF)

*60-70 ONLINE wells projected, not 60-70 attempts (each well only cost 500k, capex not an issue here)

*Full dilution 80 million shares (only potential reason for further dilution I could see is large land purchases/leases to expand past 70 wells, they have a large cash position with revenues coming online soon)

*Their target consumers have agreed to haul their own helium reducing capex.

*Well #4 started yesterday, results around 10 days or so. This will be the current deepest well and other rare earth gasses are expected.


Negatives

*4th QTR start of full production may be delayed by permitting

Well Count	MCF BASIS	Annual Revenue Per Well	Total Revenue	Revenue 3x	Revenue 7x	Outstanding shares	Share Price w/3x Multiple	Share Price w/7x Multiple
70	275	8,942,000	625,940,000	1,877,820,000	4,381,580,000	79,400,000	$23.65	$55.18
60	275	8,942,000	536,520,000	1,609,560,000	3,755,640,000	79,400,000	$20.27	$47.30
50	275	8,942,000	447,100,000	1,341,300,000	3,129,700,000	79,400,000	$16.89	$39.42
40	275	8,942,000	357,680,000	1,073,040,000	2,503,760,000	79,400,000	$13.51	$31.53
70	550	17,884,000	1,251,880,000	3,755,640,000	8,763,160,000	79,400,000	$47.30	$110.37
60	550	17,884,000	1,073,040,000	3,219,120,000	7,511,280,000	79,400,000	$40.54	$94.60
50	550	17,884,000	894,200,000	2,682,600,000	6,259,400,000	79,400,000	$33.79	$78.83
40	550	17,884,000	715,360,000	2,146,080,000	5,007,520,000	79,400,000	$27.03	$63.07
70	1100	35,768,000	2,503,760,000	7,511,280,000	17,526,320,000	79,400,000	$94.60	$220.73
60	1100	35,768,000	2,146,080,000	6,438,240,000	15,022,560,000	79,400,000	$81.09	$189.20
50	1100	35,768,000	1,788,400,000	5,365,200,000	12,518,800,000	79,400,000	$67.57	$157.67
40	1100	35,768,000	1,430,720,000	4,292,160,000	10,015,040,000	79,400,000	$54.06	$126.13
70	1600	52,025,600	3,641,792,000	10,925,376,000	25,492,544,000	79,400,000	$137.60	$321.06
60	1600	52,025,600	3,121,536,000	9,364,608,000	21,850,752,000	79,400,000	$117.94	$275.20
50	1600	52,025,600	2,601,280,000	7,803,840,000	18,208,960,000	79,400,000	$98.29	$229.33
40	1600	52,025,600	2,081,024,000	6,243,072,000	14,567,168,000	79,400,000	$78.63	$183.47
70	2100	68,283,600	4,779,852,000	14,339,556,000	33,458,964,000	79,400,000	$180.60	$421.40
60	2100	68,283,600	4,097,016,000	12,291,048,000	28,679,112,000	79,400,000	$154.80	$361.20
50	2100	68,283,600	3,414,180,000	10,242,540,000	23,899,260,000	79,400,000	$129.00	$301.00
40	2100	68,283,600	2,731,344,000	8,194,032,000	19,119,408,000	79,400,000	$103.20	$240.80
70	2600	84,541,600	5,917,912,000	17,753,736,000	41,425,384,000	79,400,000	$223.60	$521.73
60	2600	84,541,600	5,072,496,000	15,217,488,000	35,507,472,000	79,400,000	$191.66	$447.20
50	2600	84,541,600	4,227,080,000	12,681,240,000	29,589,560,000	79,400,000	$159.71	$372.66
40	2600	84,541,600	3,381,664,000	10,144,992,000	23,671,648,000	79,400,000	$127.77	$298.13
70	3100	100,799,600	7,055,972,000	21,167,916,000	49,391,804,000	79,400,000	$266.60	$622.06
60	3100	100,799,600	6,047,976,000	18,143,928,000	42,335,832,000	79,400,000	$228.51	$533.20
50	3100	100,799,600	5,039,980,000	15,119,940,000	35,279,860,000	79,400,000	$190.43	$444.33
40	3100	100,799,600	4,031,984,000	12,095,952,000	28,223,888,000	79,400,000	$152.34	$355.46

I have the small stake I mentioned, but the stock got away from me. I was trying to buy in the 2.85 - 2.95 range and got traded around more than once. OTC BS. I hate chasing, but I do like it.

 

[CFLCane]

VFF buy back thank god.

Village Farms International Announces Normal Course Issuer Bid for Common Shares | VFF Stock News

Village Farms International (NASDAQ: VFF) announced a normal course issuer bid (NCIB) accepted by the Toronto Stock Exchange, allowing the company to repurchase up to 4,062,309 common shares, equating to about 5% of its outstanding shares, over a year. The NCIB runs from May 26, 2021, to May 25...

www.stocktitan.net

 

[Cryptical Envelopment]

VFF buy back thank god.

Village Farms International Announces Normal Course Issuer Bid for Common Shares | VFF Stock News

Village Farms International (NASDAQ: VFF) announced a normal course issuer bid (NCIB) accepted by the Toronto Stock Exchange, allowing the company to repurchase up to 4,062,309 common shares, equating to about 5% of its outstanding shares, over a year. The NCIB runs from May 26, 2021, to May 25...

www.stocktitan.net

Doing a buyback of up to 5% of outstanding shares. Not mad.

 

[GladeCane]

Increased stake in galaxy by 6.5%. Guys this is when we make millions. Everyone else is selling and we're smartly increasing our positions.

 

[Tdvv]

Increased stake in galaxy by 6.5%. Guys this is when we make millions. Everyone else is selling and we're smartly increasing our positions.

Man I really hope so. Bought the dip again.

 

[Cryptical Envelopment]

Increased stake in galaxy by 6.5%. Guys this is when we make millions. Everyone else is selling and we're smartly increasing our positions.

I bought a little more, too. And yesterday. And the day before that. I have so much galaxy in my indy account now it is getting uncomfortable.

 

[GladeCane]

I think we've crossed the 50 yard line of crypto acceptance. There is no turning back. This will be an excepted, wide spread financial way to conduct business very soon, and the dominant structure down the road.

 

[Cryptical Envelopment]

I think we've crossed the 50 yard line of crypto acceptance. There is no turning back. This will be an excepted, wide spread financial way to conduct business very soon, and the dominant structure down the road.

You can't stop progress.

 

[redcane]

Crypto Folks?

What is best proxy to buy COIN, GBTC and/or something else? Looking to start a position during this sell off. Don't want to buy the actual coins. Looking for exposure to Bitcoin and the overall asset.

 

[Cryptical Envelopment]

Crypto Folks?

What is best proxy to buy COIN, GBTC and/or something else? Looking to start a position during this sell off. Don't want to buy the actual coins. Looking for exposure to Bitcoin and the overall asset.

I'd start by buying Galaxy ASAP. Trades OTC under BRPHF. Gives you crypto exposure as well as shares of what I think is the best crypto IB there will ever be. Among other things. Easy.

 

[AutoCANE]

Crypto Folks?

What is best proxy to buy COIN, GBTC and/or something else? Looking to start a position during this sell off. Don't want to buy the actual coins. Looking for exposure to Bitcoin and the overall asset.

The board favorite here for crypto exposure is BRPHF - Galaxy Digital - led by Michael Novogratz. Initially rec'd by @Cryptical Envelopment and it has explosive growth potential. Most of us in this thread (including myself) are long Galaxy. If you scour back through the thread you can find a lot of very valuable information. I trade through TDA which has accessibility to OTC equities. Some trading platforms do not give you access to foreign markets though. Galaxy is targeting the back half of 2021 for listing on the Nasdaq as reported earlier in the thread by @Cryptical Envelopment (sorry to @ you twice in a single post)

I would steer clear of Coinbase, personally - I think with their direct listing they were massively overvalued. But admittedly I haven't been watching since the initial dump so they may have fallen into a more reasonable valuation - I honestly don't know. In more practical terms, from my own personal experience using Coinbase to purchase crypto, I am not a fan of using their exchange and I feel in the near term they will see significant erosion of their customer base - they charge crazy fees for trades, and technically they are the ones that own the wallet address for your assets. It's only a matter of time before the majority of people accept / realize that there are many other safe options through which to trade these emerging assets.

Not super familiar with Grayscale (GBTC) other than knowing they exist. Some of the more experienced ITT could possibly speak to what they bring to the table.

Of course - this is not investment advice, because I am not exactly a professional. But I hope this is at least somewhat helpful and/or informative.

 

[Cryptical Envelopment]

The board favorite here for crypto exposure is BRPHF - Galaxy Digital - led by Michael Novogratz. Initially rec'd by @Cryptical Envelopment and it has explosive growth potential. Most of us in this thread (including myself) own a position in Galaxy. If you scour back through the thread you can find a lot of very valuable information. I trade through TDA which has accessibility to OTC equities. Some trading platforms do not give you access to foreign markets though. Galaxy is targeting the back half of 2021 for listing on the Nasdaq as reported earlier in the thread by @Cryptical Envelopment (sorry to @ you twice in a single post)

I would steer clear of Coinbase, personally - I think with their direct listing they were massively overvalued. But admittedly I haven't been watching since the initial dump so they may have fallen into a more reasonable valuation - I honestly don't know. In more practical terms, from my own personal experience using Coinbase to purchase crypto, I am not a fan of using their exchange and I feel in the near term they will see significant erosion of their customer base - they charge crazy fees for trades, and technically they are the ones that own the wallet address for your assets. It's only a matter of time before the majority of people accept / realize that there are many other safe options through which to trade these emerging assets.

Not super familiar with Grayscale (GBTC) other than knowing they exist. Some of the more experienced ITT could possibly speak to what they bring to the table.

Of course - this is not investment advice, because I am not exactly a professional. But I hope this is at least somewhat helpful and/or informative.

GBTC... don't get me started.

 

[redcane]

The board favorite here for crypto exposure is BRPHF - Galaxy Digital - led by Michael Novogratz. Initially rec'd by @Cryptical Envelopment and it has explosive growth potential. Most of us in this thread (including myself) are long Galaxy. If you scour back through the thread you can find a lot of very valuable information. I trade through TDA which has accessibility to OTC equities. Some trading platforms do not give you access to foreign markets though. Galaxy is targeting the back half of 2021 for listing on the Nasdaq as reported earlier in the thread by @Cryptical Envelopment (sorry to @ you twice in a single post)

I would steer clear of Coinbase, personally - I think with their direct listing they were massively overvalued. But admittedly I haven't been watching since the initial dump so they may have fallen into a more reasonable valuation - I honestly don't know. In more practical terms, from my own personal experience using Coinbase to purchase crypto, I am not a fan of using their exchange and I feel in the near term they will see significant erosion of their customer base - they charge crazy fees for trades, and technically they are the ones that own the wallet address for your assets. It's only a matter of time before the majority of people accept / realize that there are many other safe options through which to trade these emerging assets.

Not super familiar with Grayscale (GBTC) other than knowing they exist. Some of the more experienced ITT could possibly speak to what they bring to the table.

Of course - this is not investment advice, because I am not exactly a professional. But I hope this is at least somewhat helpful and/or informative.

Thank you.

 

[CFLCane]

GBTC... don't get me started.

GBTC - how to drain fees from investors