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Bird4um said:
Looks like low volume today and Nasdaq broke above the sell channel. Maybe it was only a correction. 🤞🏻
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I can think of almost 2 trillion reasons not to panic. The economy is improving, vaccinations are increasing, a ton of economic indicators are screaming yes, we have adults in the room finally... we're not going to plummet. Could a healthy correction in the 10% range happen? Sure. A bit did already, after a **** of a tear and 22x PE. Would I care? No. Buying opp. Stick to the thesis on the companies you love.

Remember, when there's blood on the streets and fear in their hearts, we buy.
 
Cryptical Envelopment said:
I can think of almost 2 trillion reasons not to panic. The economy is improving, vaccinations are increasing, a ton of economic indicators are screaming yes, we have adults in the room finally... we're not going to plummet. Could a healthy correction in the 10% range happen? Sure. A bit did already, after a **** of a tear and 22x PE. Would I care? No. Buying opp. Stick to the thesis on the companies you love.

Remember, when there's blood on the streets and fear in their hearts, we buy.
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Exactly right. Nothing has substantially changed to justify a sell off. I adjusted my ETF holdings to a heavier SPY weight, but I'm still bullish on small caps where the valuations are still attractive.
 
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Told myself I would sell my ARKK and ARKG on the next run up. Really was not feeling secure with those recently. Had to show a bit of self-discipline, but sold today. Also saw an interview with Cathy Wood that gave me cult leader vibes, so there was that.

 
Bought the bottom out on some tech stocks and am really enjoying seeing some green for once. Should pay off big in the long term.
 
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wspcane said:
Told myself I would sell my ARKK and ARKG on the next run up. Really was not feeling secure with those recently. Had to show a bit of self-discipline, but sold today. Also saw an interview with Cathy Wood that gave me cult leader vibes, so there was that.

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She definitely knows her audience and has a culty vibe like Musk. The influx of youthful investors looking to change the world through future tech, ESG investing, crypto, and modernization seems to only be getting started though.

Full disclosure i have a kool aid mustache right now.
 
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CFLCane said:
She definitely knows her audience and has a culty vibe like Musk. The influx of youthful investors looking to change the world through future tech, ESG investing, crypto, and modernization seems to only be getting started though.

Full disclosure i have a kool aid mustache right now.
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I hear you. The market has been a bit too frothy for me lately, especially the heavy growth stuff. I am looking at 1) any dips in Apple, 2) value plays, especially strong dividend stocks (MMM and Kimberly Clark), and 3) midcap ETFs. I want to say BRK.B, but Buffet's age is kind of scaring me as I can see a bit of substantial sell-off whenever he passes. And the fact that they pocket the dividends.

With ARKK, I am a little uneasy with how tied to Tesla that is (Roku and Teledoc too, though I do like telehealth down the line). I have seen a few places that Musk may be moving on from Tesla to go to SpaceX full time. God knows what happens to the share price if that happens. ARKG and ARKF are the two that still entice me the most, but some of these valuations are just crazy. They are going to all need an insane amount of sales, forgetting profitability, to justify these prices.
 
wspcane said:
I hear you. The market has been a bit too frothy for me lately, especially the heavy growth stuff. I am looking at 1) any dips in Apple, 2) value plays, especially strong dividend stocks (MMM and Kimberly Clark), and 3) midcap ETFs. I want to say BRK.B, but Buffet's age is kind of scaring me as I can see a bit of substantial sell-off whenever he passes. And the fact that they pocket the dividends.

With ARKK, I am a little uneasy with how tied to Tesla that is (Roku and Teledoc too, though I do like telehealth down the line). I have seen a few places that Musk may be moving on from Tesla to go to SpaceX full time. God knows what happens to the share price if that happens. ARKG and ARKF are the two that still entice me the most, but some of these valuations are just crazy. They are going to all need an insane amount of sales, forgetting profitability, to justify these prices.
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The tesla valuation is ridiculous and really just seems to be based on Musk not Tesla itself. I don't know of anyone in my lifetime to have the combination of balls an brilliance.
 
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CFLCane said:
The tesla valuation is ridiculous and really just seems to be based on Musk not Tesla itself. I don't know of anyone in my lifetime to have the combination of balls an brilliance.
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Agreed... but what happens if he gets bored like he did with Paypal? Tesla is 10% of ARKK.
 
wspcane said:
I hear you. The market has been a bit too frothy for me lately, especially the heavy growth stuff. I am looking at 1) any dips in Apple, 2) value plays, especially strong dividend stocks (MMM and Kimberly Clark), and 3) midcap ETFs. I want to say BRK.B, but Buffet's age is kind of scaring me as I can see a bit of substantial sell-off whenever he passes. And the fact that they pocket the dividends.

With ARKK, I am a little uneasy with how tied to Tesla that is (Roku and Teledoc too, though I do like telehealth down the line). I have seen a few places that Musk may be moving on from Tesla to go to SpaceX full time. God knows what happens to the share price if that happens. ARKG and ARKF are the two that still entice me the most, but some of these valuations are just crazy. They are going to all need an insane amount of sales, forgetting profitability, to justify these prices.
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I bought some Tesla calls over the last week... a little too early to be honest on the first tranche. But boy did they snap back today.:)
 
wspcane said:
Agreed... but what happens if he gets bored like he did with Paypal? Tesla is 10% of ARKK.
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Honestly wasn't even fully aware of Musks connection with Paypal or the "paypal mafia" as this article put it. Fascinating what has spawned from that.

www.businessinsider.com

The PayPal Mafia includes tech titans like Elon Musk, Peter Thiel, and Reid Hoffman. Here's where its members are now.

PayPal mafia members Elon Musk, Peter Thiel, and Reid Hoffman went from working at the startup in the early 2000s to running their own ventures.
www.businessinsider.com www.businessinsider.com
 
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CFLCane said:
Honestly wasn't even fully aware of Musks connection with Paypal or the "paypal mafia" as this article put it. Fascinating what has spawned from that.

www.businessinsider.com

The PayPal Mafia includes tech titans like Elon Musk, Peter Thiel, and Reid Hoffman. Here's where its members are now.

PayPal mafia members Elon Musk, Peter Thiel, and Reid Hoffman went from working at the startup in the early 2000s to running their own ventures.
www.businessinsider.com www.businessinsider.com
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It would be interesting to see some of these companies trees like coaching trees in college football or the NFL.
 
Cryptical Envelopment said:
Wow TPL under $530. Great opp. If it goes under $500, I am buying more, even though I don't need more.

This is a long-term, super safe hold that you will turn around in 10 years and be amazed by how much dividend and cap you've made on it. Ignore the published DIV. This thing is going to eventually start spitting off money, in perpetuity.

I've owned it for a while now, at $490. So you can see how close we are to that, without the time that's passed from my buy to today.

Great stock to buy some of and tuck away.

Edit adds:


www.tpltrust.com

Texas Pacific Land Trust Provides Update on Corporate Reorganization

www.tpltrust.com www.tpltrust.com

Overview/Operations: Texas Pacific Land Trust was created in the late-19th century as part of a railway bankruptcy reorganization in which bondholders were given an interest in approximately 3.5 million acres of land located in western Texas that had been put up as collateral against the bonds. The governing document requires any income earned from things like easement fees, grazing fees, oil, gas and mining royalties, or periodic land sales to be applied to the repurchase of shares and to pay dividends. Hence, TPL is a self-liquidating trust (i.e., perpetual buyback) that has been paying an increasing dividend (including a special div last year) that happens to own some of the most valuable real estate in all of the US - and the world, frankly - given its concentration in the oil-rich Permian Basin + recent shale oil boom.
An important recent development was the establishment of a water-services business (which has caused a rush of PE capital into TX). There are significant needs pertaining to water supply and disposal for the companies drilling on and near TPL’s land, and with the trust owning the water below ground on its acreage it is well situated to help customers meet those needs. The water business alone has the potential to surpass the value of the company’s real estate holdings, which by itself is massive.
Market Outlook: While fossil fuels get a bad rep and every day the importance of renewable energy grows, there is no doubt that the activity / shale drilling in the Permian Basin will continue to expand (now more than ever given the US’ call for energy-independence). Two credible sources below that corroborate the thesis:
- A McKinsey Associates study, which obviously took place with awareness of the current trends in clean energy technology, climate-change politics and regulation, estimated the increase in global oil demand through 2035. It analyzed the growth in required supply, inclusive of both the decline in existing reserve sources and the compensating increase from the development of new sources. The study put the 17-year increase in supply at 8 million barrels per day, up from a current base of 100 million. There were only two significant contributors to that net increase of 8 million barrels: off-shore production (which is only economic at much higher prices); and shale oil. Shale oil was estimated to account for 13 million additional barrels. Essentially, the global supply/demand balance will be largely contingent on U.S. shale, which will derive predominantly from the Permian Basin where Texas Pacific Land Trust’s (TPL) land and mineral positions are located.

- The Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) 165-page 2019 Annual Energy Outlook makes detailed projections about energy use and production through the year 2050. It takes account of all sources, from solar to nuclear. Its base case is for oil production to rise from about 10 million barrels/day presently, to about 14 million in the 2035 time frame. A further level of detail is theEIA’s determination of the regional sources of the increase in supply. According to EIA, the increase will come entirely from what they term the Southwest, but which their map makes clear is for the most part the Permian Basin.

Financials & Key Stats: If the qualitative story itself doesn’t pique your interest - check out the below financials snapshot:
- As of Sep-19, TPL owns 855,476 acres of land in Texas. The table below shows that its weighted average $/acre sale price since 2016 has been $5,252. Given the trust recently sold land for as much as $25k/acre, this yields a conservative valuation of $4.5B attributed solely to their land business (i.e., ignoring all other royalty revenue streams and their significant water-services business). Their market cap as of the close today (11/20/2019) was $5.27B.

Growth and profitability metrics that can’t be characterized as anything but insane:
o 2018revenueof$300M;18/17revofgrowthof94%;17/16revgrowthof134%;2Yr
CAGR of 113%
o 2018 OpEx represented just 13% of Sales (6% & 5% in 2017 & 2016, respectively)
▪ EBIT of $260M / 87% EBIT margin (94% & 95% in 2017 & 2016, respectively)
o Their largest expense is income taxes (17% in 2018) -- importance of C-Corp conversion!
▪ Also, just unheard of / incredibly impressive
o Total2018netincomeof$210M/70%margin
o 2018 NI/Certificate (read EPS) of $26.93; +118% Y/Y vs. the backdrop of a continual
liquidation/buyback
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TPL $1350 today.

Big rumor they are buying back a lot of shares and some other good news for the water business out there. What a beast.
 
wspcane said:
Out of all of your recs, I am probably kicking myself most for not jumping on this one.
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The risk on this one under $500 was better than JPM bonds IMO. As bulletproof as it gets. I am kicking myself for not tripling my stake. I actually held my nose and bought about 52% more in the $700's which was hard to do psychologically. This is one to maybe never sell. Will be interesting when they spin off their water biz too.
 
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