I’ll preface this by stating, I LOVE MARIO as a message deliver.
I believe he is a leader of men. He can command the presence of guys and get them to commit to a cause. It’s a great trait to possess.
What he isn’t is a great coach. No example in his past showed this. Our fans ignored this for specific reasons. But the truth is his BEST route to winning as a HC was to accumulate the necessary star QB and have that player elevate the program and win and once that’s completed, other elite guys follow because Mario message would have been cashed with a fat deposit. Basically think Clemson/Dabo/DeShaun Watson. Watson elevated Clemson to title heights they still somewhat have. Dabo is a GM coach. Can’t call plays. Same as Mario.
I always believe that when the HC can’t call it, you are at a decide disadvantage all things equal. But you can succeed and navigate with the RIGHT players/formula. We had it with Cam Ward.
We completely blew our chance. This chance LIKELY doesn’t happen again. The QB that’s needed to ascend Miami doesn’t exist because we had him and still missed the ACC title game. It’s the ultimate shot to the chest.
The reality is this is the norm for Cristobal and UM. We chose to ignore it because we got “one of ours.”
He’d be a great GM. Mario has the capacity to BUILD a title roster, but he’ll NEVER be able to coach it to one.
9-0 and we completely go haywire and lose in typical modern UM fashion. Will finish 10-3 and lose Ward and all our historic offfensive players in one offseason.
There is little to no chance this team scratches 10 wins next year. Slightly tougher schedule with teams who will be itching to get even and send us the direction of FSU this year. It probably doesn’t happen, but I expect UM to be anywhere from 5-7 to 8-4. Neither will be good enough for the fans.
NIL somewhat takes away Mario greatest strength in that guys now can simply just not follow a “message” but rather a bag/depth chart. Therefore, a message built on building a culture BETTER come with results. We basically are an exciting 8th seed in the nfl. Just missed playoffs. No real message can be sold with that because we plateau at the end.
I think Mario next three years will go something like this:
2024: historic season but comes up small. Finished 10-3 and around #20. Draft/graduation Losses will be major on both sides.
2025: come in ranked 20–25th. Will almost assuredly get beat by ND week 1 by ALOT. (Double digit loss). I see a disappointing season (see win spectrum up top and honest questions will emerge in one year).
2026: Hot seat will exist. Mario will bounce back and likely secure another great roster after the stain of this season fades. I see us likely being right back where we are. 9-0/10-1 racing against probably a FSU/Clemson who will be hoping to leave the ACC at this point and we’ll have a chance to take the acc crown in the “final year” of the conference with all of us.
I expect, just like this year, just like Oregon, a similar stretch. Maybe we win ACC and make playoff. But not likely. I see a repeat season of 10-3/11-3 and a 1st round playoff loss or acc title loss that keeps us out.
At that point Miami will have to make a decision about him. I believe this is where we are as a program. Despite our history, we can’t seem to shake this spell we are under. I always felt we needed a savior QB to rise above it all. We had it this year and literally 9 pts in two games still stopped us.
I don’t know if we ever return. If Pat Mahomes was placed on UM, maybe we could make it to the promise land. Right now, despite this great season, it’s really one of the more DARKER times in recent memory. Nowhere to go. You couldn’t win with THIS SENIOR CLASS, who you gonna win with? Honest recruits deep down are asking.
Maybe Miami best route to be purged is to leave the ACC. Maybe the era of our return happens elsewhere. I doubt the Big10 ever lets us in. I see Big12 eventually in our future.
Regardless, I don’t believe the best years in UM future is with Mario and this season will hurt for a long time.