State of Miami: Myth Busted

[Empirical Cane]

Five-star football recruits are increasingly leaving home states

The offseason is a great time to dive into trends in the sport of college football and recruiting. I recently read 247Sports expert Steve Wiltfong’s piece

247sports.com

I, and others, have been saying this forever: internet connectivity and social media have permanently changed CFB recruiting forever and where recruits end up.

IF internet/social media existed back in his day, Schnelly would never (ok most likely) have built Miami into the power it became as quickly as he did.

Miami wastes too much time on locals never coming and piles up too many Ls to attract out-of-state 5*.

Obviously Ws come from recruit + develop + retain. If they can fix the fails above, keep around 20% of the right locals, bring in the right outsiders, maybe Ws will start trending in the right direction.

Expecting to get even 50% of Fl talent is unrealistic.

 

[Andrew]

I agree. Recruiting has gone national and there are no more hidden gems. It is going to take more than palm trees to attract recruits.

 

[Empirical Cane]

I agree. Recruiting has gone national and there are no more hidden gems. It is going to take more than palm trees to attract recruits.

Now...IF Miami can get Ws, they should have a built in advantage getting some traction with cold climate athletes.

But this lack of development and Ls has got to change immediately.

 

[Memnon]

"Georgia is a five-star magnet right now," said Barton Simmons, the 247Sports Director of Scouting. "And Kirby Smart’s emphasis on recruiting nationally is paying off in the rankings. But dominance is relative. Georgia will dominate the rest of the country but the battle inside the top five is going to be fierce again."

Early official visits are also helping the recruiting world become a smaller place.

Under the old system, official visits were taken only in the fall. That limited the ability of recruits without financial means to see schools outside of their home region until late in the recruiting process. Under the new rules, prospects can now visit places on the school’s dime out of their home region in the spring, far earlier in the recruiting process. With recruits committing earlier and earlier in the process, the ability to have recruits visit earlier in the process opens up more doors.

Many of the best programs in the best states have been down in the College Football Playoff era.

• With Stanford, UCLA, and USC all having down years recently, five-star players have been leaving California with increasing frequency. In the last two classes, all six five-star recruits have signed with a school outside the state. A five-star from California who did not want to be quoted on the record told me in the summer of 2019 that “you can’t play for a title staying out West.”
• Neither Texas nor Texas A&M have sniffed a CFP playoff appearance. In the CFP era, Texas is 41-36, while A&M is 48-30. Neither have a conference title. In the CFP era, only 12 of 27 five-stars have remained in the state of Texas.
• Florida is also a huge offender here. The Big 3 have only one appearance in the CFP, and only one conference title in that span (both by Florida State in 2014). All three schools have had at least one losing season in the CFP era. The last five years have been particularly troubling for the in-state schools, which have managed to keep only an astounding 2 of 14 five-stars recruits in the Sunshine State.

The above suggests that this trend could see a bit of a reversal over the long haul if the programs in California, Texas, and Florida are able to turn it around. For instance, USC, Texas, A&M, and Florida could be primed to have their best teams in some time for 2020. However, with prospects being able to be exposed to far away locations earlier in the recruiting process, it is unlikely that the sport will see a return to the levels of a decade or two ago.

 

[rustywalkedaway]

There are hidden gems even today, see 3 star (at best) Rousseau.

But Miami is a national brand and we should recruit maximizing that. Many out of state kids love the Miami offer. We just have not thought nationally before, in terms of overall recruiting strategy (not just a prospect or position).

 

[Empirical Cane]

"Georgia is a five-star magnet right now," said Barton Simmons, the 247Sports Director of Scouting. "And Kirby Smart’s emphasis on recruiting nationally is paying off in the rankings. But dominance is relative. Georgia will dominate the rest of the country but the battle inside the top five is going to be fierce again."

Early official visits are also helping the recruiting world become a smaller place.

Under the old system, official visits were taken only in the fall. That limited the ability of recruits without financial means to see schools outside of their home region until late in the recruiting process. Under the new rules, prospects can now visit places on the school’s dime out of their home region in the spring, far earlier in the recruiting process. With recruits committing earlier and earlier in the process, the ability to have recruits visit earlier in the process opens up more doors.

Many of the best programs in the best states have been down in the College Football Playoff era.

• With Stanford, UCLA, and USC all having down years recently, five-star players have been leaving California with increasing frequency. In the last two classes, all six five-star recruits have signed with a school outside the state. A five-star from California who did not want to be quoted on the record told me in the summer of 2019 that “you can’t play for a title staying out West.”
• Neither Texas nor Texas A&M have sniffed a CFP playoff appearance. In the CFP era, Texas is 41-36, while A&M is 48-30. Neither have a conference title. In the CFP era, only 12 of 27 five-stars have remained in the state of Texas.
• Florida is also a huge offender here. The Big 3 have only one appearance in the CFP, and only one conference title in that span (both by Florida State in 2014). All three schools have had at least one losing season in the CFP era. The last five years have been particularly troubling for the in-state schools, which have managed to keep only an astounding 2 of 14 five-stars recruits in the Sunshine State.

The above suggests that this trend could see a bit of a reversal over the long haul if the programs in California, Texas, and Florida are able to turn it around. For instance, USC, Texas, A&M, and Florida could be primed to have their best teams in some time for 2020. However, with prospects being able to be exposed to far away locations earlier in the recruiting process, it is unlikely that the sport will see a return to the levels of a decade or two ago.

So sayeth LCE, so sayeth the flock.

 

[Memnon]

I'm 1,000% in favor of going National.

I've been saying & I'll keep saying, recruit TX & AZ heavy, then get the best kids from NV, NJ/Northeast, plus pluck a few from STL (the STL area is producing a shìt ton of good recruits from schools like East STL, Lutheran North, DeSmet & Trinity Catholic), then mix them in with some good prospects from South, Central & Northern FLA & we'll turn this thing around sooner than later.

Winning of course helps, but a lot of it is just effort, if we plant our flag & put forth the effort in some of these regions kids will come here, then if we can back it up by winning on the field it'll create a bandwagon for them to hop on.

Our biggest problem in recruiting has been selling points, we simply haven't had anything to sell, once we win on the field & put ourselves in Charlotte a few seasons in a row you'll start seeing more top 10 classes from us.

 

[Empirical Cane]

I'm 1,000% in favor of going National.

I've been saying & I'll keep saying, recruit TX & AZ heavy, then get the best kids from NV, NJ/Northeast, plus pluck a few from STL (the STL area is producing a shìt ton of good recruits from schools like East STL, Lutheran North, DeSmet & Trinity Catholic), then mix them in with some good prospects from South, Central & Northern FLA & we'll turn this thing around sooner than later.

Winning of course helps, but a lot of it is just effort, if we plant our flag & put forth the effort in some of these regions kids will come here, then if we can back it up by winning on the field it'll create a bandwagon for them to hop on.

Our biggest problem in recruiting has been selling points, we simply haven't had anything to sell, once we win on the field & put ourselves in Charlotte a few seasons in a row you'll start seeing more top 10 classes from us.

UCG wastes far too many resources (time, $, effort) on SoFL kids who, just by percentages, aren't staying.

I'm sick of seeing kids throw the U hat to the side of the table.

 

[rustywalkedaway]

I'm 1,000% in favor of going National.

I've been saying & I'll keep saying, recruit TX & AZ heavy, then get the best kids from NV, NJ/Northeast, plus pluck a few from STL (the STL area is producing a shìt ton of good recruits from schools like East STL, Lutheran North, DeSmet & Trinity Catholic), then mix them in with some good prospects from South, Central & Northern FLA & we'll turn this thing around sooner than later.

Winning of course helps, but a lot of it is just effort, if we plant our flag & put forth the effort in some of these regions kids will come here, then if we can back it up by winning on the field it'll create a bandwagon for them to hop on.

Our biggest problem in recruiting has been selling points, we simply haven't had anything to sell, once we win on the field & put ourselves in Charlotte a few seasons in a row you'll start seeing more top 10 classes from us.

Yep, and Memphis. But be careful in Texas. Houston makes sense, but we'll get out heads kicked in going against LSU and A&M there.

 

[pacusmc]

I'm 1,000% in favor of going National.

I've been saying & I'll keep saying, recruit TX & AZ heavy, then get the best kids from NV, NJ/Northeast, plus pluck a few from STL (the STL area is producing a shìt ton of good recruits from schools like East STL, Lutheran North, DeSmet & Trinity Catholic), then mix them in with some good prospects from South, Central & Northern FLA & we'll turn this thing around sooner than later.

Winning of course helps, but a lot of it is just effort, if we plant our flag & put forth the effort in some of these regions kids will come here, then if we can back it up by winning on the field it'll create a bandwagon for them to hop on.

Our biggest problem in recruiting has been selling points, we simply haven't had anything to sell, once we win on the field & put ourselves in Charlotte a few seasons in a row you'll start seeing more top 10 classes from us.

Do we have the budget or recruiters that can do that tho?

 

[Memnon]

Do we have the budget or recruiters that can do that tho?

Budget yes, recruiters, on offense yes, on Defense probably not.

But the best recruiter is winning. We win 10 games this season & we'll land plenty of good prospects from all over.

The key is becoming a viable option for recruits, if we show them we're not a bargain bin program that can win on the field they'll come here.

 

[Mikesmith29150]

It took me awhile to realize our biggest problem is our players. They don't work on conditioning, nor the mental side hard enough. We have a few guys but not enough. Their bodies don't change enough and that's on them. We don't look physically imposing at all

 

[rch]

If I am not mistaken, Clemson only had one recruit from South Carolina last year.

 

[gogeta4]

Simple...

The same way schools are down here by the boatloads during the spring.././.is the same way we need to be in metro areas of the south and north east.

Really, Really simple especially with having a guy from LA...in Blake Baker, Tx guys in Lashlee,Banda, Patke and our brand being solid in NE NY/NJ.

Hit...Dallas/Houston somewhat hard.....LIVE IN NEW ORLEANS, Atlanta is easy...these are places that dont even cost alot for round trip flights.

I was always a pro s.fla guy...but ive opened up because i now realize the cess pool its turned and our program integrity int he minds of alot of the youngsters down here and understand the toxicity the minute we lose a game down here...the oos guys dont see that and still look at the u as a Brand.

Its a reason bum *** schools like Nebraska can sell to some legit s.fla prospects...because those kids have no idea how it really is there and just say "****..their showing so much love" etc.

 

[Tad Footeball]

It's OT but one comically consistent thing about CIS recruiting threads pertaining to national recruiting is the geographical biases of all of us based on where we grew up or where we're currently living.

It's always funny to have guys pining for us to start focusing on kids in North Carolina or Washington State or Maryland etc. I'm not even casting aspersions here either as I personally will always look at any Pennsylvania 4 star or above to see if we even offered.

 

[gogeta4]

It's OT but one comically consistent thing about CIS recruiting threads pertaining to national recruiting is the geographical biases of all of us based on where we grew up or where we're currently living.

It's always funny to have guys pining for us to start focusing on kids in North Carolina or Washington State or Maryland etc. I'm not even casting aspersions here either as I personally will always look at any Pennsylvania 4 star or above to see if we even offered.

I agree...but the one area i never got why we never target is the 757. I mean we literally are rivals to Va Tech and that whole state is open season...we could have done work there for some time now.

 

[Tad Footeball]

I agree...but the one area i never got why we never target is the 757. I mean we literally are rivals to Va Tech and that whole state is open season...we could have done work there for some time now.

Agreed. Should've been part of our past mid-Atlantic type recruiting efforts when we were going into Jersey and PA. Philly to Va Beach is less miles than Miami to Tampa.

 

[ShlomoShekelberg]

If we had a coaching staff that could recruit, develop, and actually win football games, none of this would be an issue. Social media, Miami's rough inner city environment, and the lure of going out of state are just excuses for having a lousy coaching staff. Can you imagine a guy like Urban Meyer at Miami? Ignore for a moment the fact that he would only be here for 5-6 years, and would probably leave us with NCAA sanctions, but aside from that, he would recruit and win just like Jimmy Johnson used to. He would build a wall around South Florida, and the only guys we wouldn't get are the guys we have no interest in or room for even we did. The smart kids want to play for a winner, not a loser. And we keep hiring coaches who don't know how to develop players or mold them into winning football teams.

 

[Fluffhead]

I'm 1,000% in favor of going National.

I've been saying & I'll keep saying, recruit TX & AZ heavy, then get the best kids from NV, NJ/Northeast, plus pluck a few from STL (the STL area is producing a shìt ton of good recruits from schools like East STL, Lutheran North, DeSmet & Trinity Catholic), then mix them in with some good prospects from South, Central & Northern FLA & we'll turn this thing around sooner than later.

Winning of course helps, but a lot of it is just effort, if we plant our flag & put forth the effort in some of these regions kids will come here, then if we can back it up by winning on the field it'll create a bandwagon for them to hop on.

Our biggest problem in recruiting has been selling points, we simply haven't had anything to sell, once we win on the field & put ourselves in Charlotte a few seasons in a row you'll start seeing more top 10 classes from us.

It’s almost the opposite of what the strategy used to be. When one of the big three was down, they would have to focus on the local areas to recruit. Once they got good, they would go national to a fault, the culture would erode, and the school would slip for the next big three school to do their cycle. Seems like now we need to go national to go local down the line once good.

 

[bigpurk45]

South Florida athletes are just a bunch of deva's... They're a bunch of copycats and go where the trend is... I'd love for us to start recruiting more players nationally. I think we are more attractive to players from out of state... As humans we always want what we don't have... These athletes grew up down here and take this weather/location (Miami) for granted. If we can keep 3-4 of the top players down here and recruit nationally I think we'd be in better shape...