Brian Kelly was trying to explain the transformation, delicately dissecting the whys and hows of winning and losing at Notre Dame when finally, he laid it out with simplicity.
“Look, there’s a fine line between a five-loss team and an unbeaten team,” Kelly said. “There isn’t much of a tangible difference between the 2011 and 2012 teams.”
Except this: one lost five games, the other went unbeaten and played for the national championship.
That fine line, coaches say year after year, is more razor thin than one can imagine. In the 15 years of the BCS, five teams followed a four-loss (or more) season with a national championship season.
It began with Oklahoma in 2000 (lost five games in 1999), and includes Ohio State in 2002 (lost five in 2001), LSU in 2003 (lost five in 2002), Florida in 2008 (lost four in 2007) and Auburn in 2010 (lost five in 2009).
If that’s not enough proof, consider this: Had Ohio State been eligible for the postseason (and had it won the Big Ten Championship Game), the seven-loss Buckeyes from 2011 would’ve likely played the five-loss Irish from 2011 in the national championship game.
Here are the top five-loss teams in 2012 that could play for next season's national championship:
Miami (7-5 in 2012): A huge, NCAA-induced disclaimer: If the Canes are placed on postseason probation for violations committed by former players with booster Nevin Shapiro, this is obviously a moot point.
But if two years of self postseason bans by the university reduce the impact of the looming sanctions and the Canes are eligible in 2013, this team is talented enough--and plays in a winnable conference--that it could sneak into Pasadena.
The Canes won the Coastal Division (but gave it up with self probation), and could have won three of the five games they lost. The bad news: The two other losses were by a combined 77 points to Kansas State and Notre Dame.
Quarterback Stephen Morris returns, as does dynamic freshman TB Duke Johnson and wideout Phillip Dorsett. The lines of scrimmage will be experienced and strong, and going unbeaten in the ACC (with a big non-conference win over Florida) is a must. No ACC team will advance to the BCS National Championship Game with a loss.
