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Some names to watch before it’s deleted

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powhatanlurker said:
Candle was never coming here. Dude has spent his entire life is mostly rural Ohio with the exception of two years just across the border in BEAVER FALLS PA. Y’all ever been to Beaver Falls?! I have, and it ain’t Miami. Only way he leaves is if OSU or Cinci come calling.
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Some people on this bored think everyone want to live in Miami (not saying Miami isn’t a great place to live) but it’s not for everyone. Some people actually like fcking snow and dislike thick humid hot *** weather. Some people like going to their local store and not having to sit in traffic.

Every time weather comes up when we’re talking about recruits and coaching I want to say this.

*for the record I like hot weather 😂
 
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CanesNation26 said:
I'm trying to understand your specific critique here based on the analytics. If it's: Briles is better, I'd agree. If it's: Candle's numbers are good, but not great/elite, I'd also agree. If it's: Candle hasn't been good (which is what I'm taking away from your posts), then I just don't see support for that based on the numbers.

Candle's numbers are not elite, but they're **** good even though he's had relatively comparable talent to most of his competitors. It's no surprise that the teams that consistently find themselves in the top 10-20 of F+ year in and year out are typically teams that have much more talent than their competitors.

We're hiring a guy who's produced a top 2 MAC offense in 4 of the 6 years (2016, 2017, 2018, 2020) according to F+. His offenses while he was head coach have been pretty good (last six years):

2016: 13th (Briles at Baylor: 33rd)
2017: 37th (Briles at FAU: 21st)
2018: 39th (Briles at Houston: 26th)
2019: 91st (Briles at Florida State: 61st)
2020: 39th (Briles at Arkansas: 56th)
2021: 76th (Briles at Arkansas: 22nd)

4 Top 40 offenses in the last 6 years. 2 outside the top 40. Same as Briles.
His median offensive ranking: 38th. Briles: 29.5.
He's put up better offenses than all but one MAC team in 3/6 years and better than all MAC teams in 1. I would imagine you can't find a football program or offensive coordinator in the MAC that's been more consistent than Candle.

I'd be interested to dive more into Toledo's 2019 and 2021 seasons. Were there key injuries? Was the Oline particularly bad? Were there key transfers?

Here's an article discussing Toledo's 2021 team: https://www.chatsports.com/toledo-r...nd-it-must-start-with-offensive-line-16861562

"With an offensive line that offers less resistance than the Maginot Line, the Rockets have played from behind throughout the season — on the scoreboard and down and distance. If games are won in the trenches — a cliché that’s proved true over the past century — then the fingerprints of UT’s offensive line are all over its four losses."

Hard to put up stellar offenses when you have a **** Oline, just ask Briles about his time at FSU.
Toledo was also shuffling between two QBs in the 2021 season and both were pretty bad. That could fall on the HC. But when you're recruiting at such a low level, as most MAC teams do, probabilities say you're bound to have lots of busts.

In short, combining Candle's penchant for producing top-40 offenses against basically equally-talent competitors with (1) a Mirabal/Critstobal Oline, (2) Miami's QB room, and (3) Miami's talent advantage will probably yield some **** good results.

Yes, we'd expect most OCs we hire to do better here given our talent advantage. But for Candle that means we're probably going to see some very good//borderline elite offenses. I'm not sure why you dismiss that point in the QP.
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CanesNation26 said:
I'm trying to understand your specific critique here based on the analytics. If it's: Briles is better, I'd agree. If it's: Candle's numbers are good, but not great/elite, I'd also agree. If it's: Candle hasn't been good (which is what I'm taking away from your posts), then I just don't see support for that based on the numbers.

Candle's numbers are not elite, but they're **** good even though he's had relatively comparable talent to most of his competitors. It's no surprise that the teams that consistently find themselves in the top 10-20 of F+ year in and year out are typically teams that have much more talent than their competitors.

We're hiring a guy who's produced a top 2 MAC offense in 4 of the last 6 years (2016, 2017, 2018, 2020) according to F+. His offenses while he was head coach have been pretty good (last six years):

2016: 13th (Briles at Baylor: 33rd)
2017: 37th (Briles at FAU: 21st)
2018: 39th (Briles at Houston: 26th)
2019: 91st (Briles at Florida State: 61st)
2020: 39th (Briles at Arkansas: 56th)
2021: 76th (Briles at Arkansas: 22nd)

- 4 Top 40 offenses in the last 6 years. 2 outside the top 40. Same as Briles.
- His median offensive ranking: 38th. Briles: 29.5.
- He's put up better offenses than all but one MAC team in 3/6 years and better than all MAC teams in 1. I would imagine you can't find a football program or offensive coordinator in the MAC that's been more consistent than Candle.

I'd be interested to dive more into Toledo's 2019 and 2021 seasons. Were there key injuries? Was the Oline particularly bad? Were there key transfers?

Here's an article discussing Toledo's 2021 team: https://www.chatsports.com/toledo-r...nd-it-must-start-with-offensive-line-16861562

"With an offensive line that offers less resistance than the Maginot Line, the Rockets have played from behind throughout the season — on the scoreboard and down and distance. If games are won in the trenches — a cliché that’s proved true over the past century — then the fingerprints of UT’s offensive line are all over its four losses."

- Hard to put up stellar offenses when you have a **** Oline, just ask Briles about his time at FSU. (Briles is now immensely benefitting from a Sam Pittman coached Oline)
- Toledo was also shuffling between two QBs in the 2021 season and both were pretty bad. That could fall on the HC. But when you're recruiting at such a low level, as most MAC teams do, probabilities say you're bound to have lots of busts.

In short, combining Candle's penchant for producing top-40 offenses against basically equally-talented competitors with (1) a Mirabal/Critstobal Oline, (2) Miami's QB room, and (3) Miami's talent advantage will probably yield some **** good results.

Yes, we'd expect most OCs we hire to do better here given our talent advantage. But for Candle that means we're probably going to see some very good//borderline elite offenses. I'm not sure why you dismiss that point as unimportant.
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Some of the Briles comparisons don’t make sense, because you’re leaving out the fact that Briles wasn’t the OC the year before, and not comparing what the offense did the year before Briles.

Like FSU was 97th in 2018. Briles jumped it to 61, then it fell back to 83 without him.

Briles’ numbers only compare favorably to Candle because Briles takes over dumpster fires that other OCs have created.

Also, just a quick glance and it appears some of your numbers are wrong.

For instance, in 2020: Western Michigan was 10, Kent State 11, Buffalo 16, Ball State 31, and then Toledo at 39 for F+ Offensive rankings. You are claiming Toledo was Top 2.
 
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