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Ha. According to you, you don't get to "cherry pick" stats, but you just used a stat without adding the context of Herbert's throws to Ekeler (and the other RBs) and Keenan Allen.
So, let's be absolutely clear here:
1. This all starts with the basic argument that Herbert played within a more conservative (that means relative) run-oriented approach at Oregon and, most importantly, many of us hope the offense is expanded for TVD. That's it. It could have been left right there.
2. A slew of posters, however, either outright deny that fact (and the many stats that back it up) or claim it's for a number of different reasons (lack of WRs, etc.). Weird. Not really sure why.
3. I've provided multiple angles supporting how Herbert was "unleashed" - relatively speaking - in his rookie year. There are countless articles, opinions, and stats to support that view.
4. You come in and attempt to undermine that Herbert was relatively unleashed as an air-it-out guy because his offense also threw short of the sticks (which we all can agree on).
5. I provide to you his downfield stats.
6. You claim that's cherry picking, even though we're specifically discussing the downfield aspect of his game being unleashed.
Here's yet another article ranking Herbert (Tua, of course, is nowhere to be found on the list) among the top 10 deep throwers in 2020 (the season we're discussing relative to his more conservative usage at Oregon) and with some solid metrics to support:
Herbert blew the doors off the league in Year One, winning the Offensive Rookie of the Year award and tying Baker Mayfield's rookie record for deep touchdown passes with 11. The first-round pick out of Oregon more than held his own when the pass rush was closing in on him, too. Herbert racked up 415 passing yards and five touchdowns on deep passes when under pressure, both most in the NFL. He didn't need the comfort of the Ducks' shotgun-only offense to do so, either, throwing five touchdowns on deep passes from under center (tied with Kirk Cousins for the league lead).
Despite being a rookie who was often under pressure, Herbert delivered with a CPOE of +9.1. There's occasionally a beautiful moment when a pro quarterback fires a rope through a crowded secondary for an unlikely completion. It's even more breathtaking when it comes from a rookie who was thrown into the fire unexpectedly in Week 2. Herbert is just getting started.
Next Gen Stats' top 10 deep passers of 2020: Aaron Rodgers lands at No. 4
Nick Shook ranks the top 10 deep passers of the 2020 season using Next Gen Stats. Reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers is included in the rankings, of course, but the top of the list is sure to surprise.www.nfl.com
Again, I really have no idea why people are arguing with the point that Herbert was used differently his rookie year than he was at Oregon. It's not a complicated point. And, we all support Mario in taking in that experience and opening it up for TVD.
Think we can let this one settle, no?
You raise some very relevant points and analysis.
I will simply say this.
The stats on run vs. pass are more on the OC and playcalling. There could also be skewed numbers due to situational factors, such as a team being ahead for most of the second halves of games. I do think it can be misleading to try to use this run-pass stat as some sort of conclusive barometer on offensive philosophy.
The stats on downfield throwing yardage would be the ones that could be impacted by wide receiver play. Often, finsanecane was comparing Herbert's numbers to Heisman winners, and we all know that Heisman winners usually play on loaded teams. So maybe Herbert chose to throw shorter passes due to factors beyond just "what Mario told him to do".
But I also acknowledge that coaching at the NFL level tends to be more elevated and specific. The overall NFL talent levels are higher too. And you correctly point out that the Chargers tailored the passing game to Herbert, which is very justified when you are investing a top pick and tens of millions into a player, which is a much larger investment than just one IC slot at the collegiate level. The Bills did something similar with Josh Allen, so there is a good precedent that some smarter teams have now established.
NFL QBs can play better and improve their skillsets over what they showed in college. It is not some conspiracy of failure by college coaches, simply because they do not fully utilize the abilities of kids who are growing and improving from ages 18-22.
