Small 2022 Classes

[SFbayCane]

I don't disagree that it has an easy solution, but if 20% of the FBS schools reserve 5 places for transfers, that's 130 high school players that won't get scholarships. It's kind of hard to claim to be helping student athletes when you're helping to prevent them from going to college.

Im not sure Im following your line of thought here. If 130 kids leave schools from group A and end up signing with schools from group B, wouldn't that open up 130 scholarships from the group A schools that could be used for high school kids?

 

[JD08]

Im not sure Im following your line of thought here. If 130 kids leave schools from group A and end up signing with schools from group B, wouldn't that open up 130 scholarships from the group A schools that could be used for high school kids?

You don't get to replace players who transfer out. The limit is 25 IC's no matter what for any given year. If you use one on a transfer, that's one less HS offer.

 

[90scane]

130 FBS schools x 20% = 26. 26 x 5 = 130. There will be variations based on IC usage, but not accommodating transferring students will result in fewer HS offers.

Now you can make an argument that the sudden surge of portal jumpers ending up going nowhere will result in less transfers down the road, but again, is the NCAA really helping the student athlete?

Yes, the portal should be for a few weak areas, development is critical.

what are your numbers for?

25 counters per class. Kids normally can stay 5 years. With Covid, every kid can stay 6. If the average stay jumps from 3.4years to 4 years, the average program will be 15 over the 85 roster limit which gets us back to a small ‘22 class. Then in ‘23 most programs will be back to taking classes close to pre-Covid in size with some schools dripping back by spreading the pain out over 2-3 years.

 

[AllAboutTheU]

Probably because he’s being counted towards 2022 counter numbers.

I guess, but he’s still a HS kid with 4 years left who never touched another campus.

 

[IndayArtHauz]

Nitpicky thing, but why do so many of our fans think that Cody Brown is a transfer portal kid? He’s a true freshman that got released from his NLI because of a coaching change.

not nit picky. I believe it’s because there were very few reports on Brown that were written in crayon at the time of his signing

 

[RedPill Stepdad]

The expectation is that the NCAA is going to do something about the 85. Not just make it happen at once.

 

[JD08]

what are your numbers for?

25 counters per class. Kids normally can stay 5 years. With Covid, every kid can stay 6. If the average stay jumps from 3.4years to 4 years, the average program will be 15 over the 85 roster limit which gets us back to a small ‘22 class. Then in ‘23 most programs will be back to taking classes close to pre-Covid in size with some schools dripping back by spreading the pain out over 2-3 years.

I just picked a random percentage. The point is that if an IC goes to a transfer, then that's a scholarship that's not available for an HS kid.

 

[Timmy T-Bags $$$]

It's been widely reported that due to Covid waivers/super seniors there will be a giant reduction in the number of football players receiving scholarships in the 2022, maybe 30 to 40% less. Bruce Feldman and Stewart Mandel discussed this on their Audible podcast a few weeks back and after interviewing a group of coaches they speculated that most top programs were planning to sign 15-18 players in the class.

Also here is a quote from Greg Biggins of 247 Sports which gets right to the point:



This means a lot of top quality kids that are waiting for the Bama, Clemson, OSU offer that would be forthcoming in a normal year are going to have to go to plan B. You add in the fact that college coaches haven't seen most of these kids play in an actual football game in person you are going to have even more missed evals than usual and kids emerging after breakout HS senior seasons.

So while all the CIS recruiting board chicken littles get in their feelings this July there is a unique, legitimate and strategic advantage to having open spots in your 2022 signing class, and it must be acknowledged this is a completely different year than any before it numbers-wise.

You can say what you will about Manny's results on the field, but he has certainly been strategic and calculating off the field, with the transfer portal and NLI. Bolden, Phillips, King, Rambo, Stevenson, Deandre Johnson, Cody Brown, Isiah Wilson, Jarrid Williams - show me a program that has better leveraged an unknown like the portal to its advantage. There have certainly been misses this cycle already, but no need for Canes tears because the rollercoaster is just getting started. Enjoy the ride fellas we will be fine.

As much as it pains me to say the Gayturds have done well picking up portal additions
Oh man that was REALLY HARD TO TYPE AND I FEEL DIRTY!!!!!!

 

[90scane]

I just picked a random percentage. The point is that if an IC goes to a transfer, then that's a scholarship that's not available for an HS kid.

Yeah, right now that IC is going unused for HS kids not because of transfers but because of COVID Super Seniors. Schools outside of a few like Miami, FSU, VT will be hard-pressed to sign many kids in '22 because the NCAA isn't going to grant additional roster counters for '22 for Super Seniors like they are in '21.

Assuming the average length kids stay just jumped from 3.4 years to 4.4 years, most schools will have 110 kids trying to fit onto rosters with 85 caps. THUS, no need to worry about the 25 per class counters until you push out the extra 20-25 kids. Until schools burn through the COVID bonus years, HS kids will have a tougher time finding landing spots which will create a large portal pool and HS pool. This is not just a Football thing but all sports.

 

[JD08]

Yeah, right now that IC is going unused for HS kids not because of transfers but because of COVID Super Seniors. Schools outside of a few like Miami, FSU, VT will be hard-pressed to sign many kids in '22 because the NCAA isn't going to grant additional roster counters for '22 for Super Seniors like they are in '21.

Assuming the average length kids stay just jumped from 3.4 years to 4.4 years, most schools will have 110 kids trying to fit onto rosters with 85 caps. THUS, no need to worry about the 25 per class counters until you push out the extra 20-25 kids. Until schools burn through the COVID bonus years, HS kids will have a tougher time finding landing spots which will create a large portal pool and HS pool. This is not just a Football thing but all sports.

But eventually the covid super seniors will he gone, but unless the portal calms down, the problem will remain.

 

[1LuvCane]

It's been widely reported that due to Covid waivers/super seniors there will be a giant reduction in the number of football players receiving scholarships in the 2022, maybe 30 to 40% less. Bruce Feldman and Stewart Mandel discussed this on their Audible podcast a few weeks back and after interviewing a group of coaches they speculated that most top programs were planning to sign 15-18 players in the class.

Also here is a quote from Greg Biggins of 247 Sports which gets right to the point:



This means a lot of top quality kids that are waiting for the Bama, Clemson, OSU offer that would be forthcoming in a normal year are going to have to go to plan B. You add in the fact that college coaches haven't seen most of these kids play in an actual football game in person you are going to have even more missed evals than usual and kids emerging after breakout HS senior seasons.

So while all the CIS recruiting board chicken littles get in their feelings this July there is a unique, legitimate and strategic advantage to having open spots in your 2022 signing class, and it must be acknowledged this is a completely different year than any before it numbers-wise.

You can say what you will about Manny's results on the field, but he has certainly been strategic and calculating off the field, with the transfer portal and NLI. Bolden, Phillips, King, Rambo, Stevenson, Deandre Johnson, Cody Brown, Isiah Wilson, Jarrid Williams - show me a program that has better leveraged an unknown like the portal to its advantage. There have certainly been misses this cycle already, but no need for Canes tears because the rollercoaster is just getting started. Enjoy the ride fellas we will be fine.

There is always light at the end of the tunnel...

 

[1LuvCane]

There are also 2500 players in the portal. Why take a chance on a 3 star long snapper when you can pick up a 4 star with film of his college games already out there.

The NCAA will need to figure out that situation pretty soon.

interesting to see if things get flipped on the HS divas.....

 

[90scane]

But eventually the covid super seniors will he gone, but unless the portal calms down, the problem will remain.

The COVID super seniors are helping to feed the portal. I mean every kid can now transfer with extra years to play not to mention we added in NIL and play today vs sit. What will likely happen: 1000-1500 HS kids won't get to play college ball OR will have to use alternative routes (JC for 1-2 years, Prep School, FBS...). Another 1000-1500 college kids will get pushed out even though they have years left to play (see PORTAL ;-) ). The rest will retire or move on to the NFL. The 2800 spots (D1 Football only: math is 11050/4) don't have to all get found in '22 but the pressure is massive for kids to find landing spots especially for non-revenue generating sports.

Without additional class counters, schools will be forced to take HS kids as most portal kids aren't staying for the average 3.4 years. Thus it is a massive risk of playing well under the 85 limit if you lean on the portal to fill rosters. Kids can be in the portal but it doesn't mean that they will have many options for landing spots. HS kids on the other hand have a big advantage as they haven't burned any years and you can assume will stay for 3.4 years (factoring in the portal/nfl departures).

 

[The Sphinx]

It's been widely reported that due to Covid waivers/super seniors there will be a giant reduction in the number of football players receiving scholarships in the 2022, maybe 30 to 40% less. Bruce Feldman and Stewart Mandel discussed this on their Audible podcast a few weeks back and after interviewing a group of coaches they speculated that most top programs were planning to sign 15-18 players in the class.

Also here is a quote from Greg Biggins of 247 Sports which gets right to the point:



This means a lot of top quality kids that are waiting for the Bama, Clemson, OSU offer that would be forthcoming in a normal year are going to have to go to plan B. You add in the fact that college coaches haven't seen most of these kids play in an actual football game in person you are going to have even more missed evals than usual and kids emerging after breakout HS senior seasons.

So while all the CIS recruiting board chicken littles get in their feelings this July there is a unique, legitimate and strategic advantage to having open spots in your 2022 signing class, and it must be acknowledged this is a completely different year than any before it numbers-wise.

You can say what you will about Manny's results on the field, but he has certainly been strategic and calculating off the field, with the transfer portal and NLI. Bolden, Phillips, King, Rambo, Stevenson, Deandre Johnson, Cody Brown, Isiah Wilson, Jarrid Williams - show me a program that has better leveraged an unknown like the portal to its advantage. There have certainly been misses this cycle already, but no need for Canes tears because the rollercoaster is just getting started. Enjoy the ride fellas we will be fine.

Really good post, and I think we can all see the writing on the wall that '22 will be a small class given the reality of the situation as you have outlined. Which isn't a bad thing, and it's why Manny and Co. have to be very diligent about each commit. This won't be the year to waste a scholly on a project kid. Need a small class full of *** kickers.

 

[RJ Lee]

Looking at the depth chart, i dont see huge gaping holes anywhere except at CB obviously. This and OL are the only unit that need a minimum of 3 recruits.

The timing is quite perfect for a small class.

QB - Brown is enough.

RB - We have 4 underclassmen for 2022, we could take a flyer on either a project or a high floor-low ceiling guy that can serve as an emergency 5th string back in case we suffer unexpected attrition.

WR - We have 8 WRs coming back plus Wiggins and Pope still have eligibility for 2022 lol. I think Curtis moves here as well. That's 9-11 kids for 3 spots. I think Landon is enough.

TE - 3 coming back we definitely need at least one.

OL - 2 tackles and 1 interior recruit are the minimums.

DL - 6 DTs and 6 DEs are coming back. We could easily end up with just a class of Stewart and Lyons and still be fine. I'd obviously shoot for another DE and DT to get to 16 total.

LB - 1 is all we need. We have 7 guys coming back plus Steed and Jennings with eligibility making it 9 kids max possible. We only run 2 LBs, the math here is clear.

CB - Biggest need of the class.

S/striker - I count 7 kids coming back for these 3 spots, we could end up with 2 recruits for these positions. Hall/Frierson/Bolden still have eligibility as well to come back.

P - We should get one.

 

[Go Canes!!]

l

It's been widely reported that due to Covid waivers/super seniors there will be a giant reduction in the number of football players receiving scholarships in the 2022, maybe 30 to 40% less. Bruce Feldman and Stewart Mandel discussed this on their Audible podcast a few weeks back and after interviewing a group of coaches they speculated that most top programs were planning to sign 15-18 players in the class.

Also here is a quote from Greg Biggins of 247 Sports which gets right to the point:



This means a lot of top quality kids that are waiting for the Bama, Clemson, OSU offer that would be forthcoming in a normal year are going to have to go to plan B. You add in the fact that college coaches haven't seen most of these kids play in an actual football game in person you are going to have even more missed evals than usual and kids emerging after breakout HS senior seasons.

So while all the CIS recruiting board chicken littles get in their feelings this July there is a unique, legitimate and strategic advantage to having open spots in your 2022 signing class, and it must be acknowledged this is a completely different year than any before it numbers-wise.

You can say what you will about Manny's results on the field, but he has certainly been strategic and calculating off the field, with the transfer portal and NLI. Bolden, Phillips, King, Rambo, Stevenson, Deandre Johnson, Cody Brown, Isiah Wilson, Jarrid Williams - show me a program that has better leveraged an unknown like the portal to its advantage. There have certainly been misses this cycle already, but no need for Canes tears because the rollercoaster is just getting started. Enjoy the ride fellas we will be fine.

Excellent, informative thread.

Well done OP

All of a sudden 16 or so is looking like a realistic number.

 

[AtlAtty]

I am amazed that we actually have a thread that is informative, positive and devoid of porsters. Thank you @90scane and @CAT5Coming

Give it time.

 

[Canes10]

The COVID super seniors are helping to feed the portal. I mean every kid can now transfer with extra years to play not to mention we added in NIL and play today vs sit. What will likely happen: 1000-1500 HS kids won't get to play college ball OR will have to use alternative routes (JC for 1-2 years, Prep School, FBS...). Another 1000-1500 college kids will get pushed out even though they have years left to play (see PORTAL ;-) ). The rest will retire or move on to the NFL. The 2800 spots (D1 Football only: math is 11050/4) don't have to all get found in '22 but the pressure is massive for kids to find landing spots especially for non-revenue generating sports.

Without additional class counters, schools will be forced to take HS kids as most portal kids aren't staying for the average 3.4 years. Thus it is a massive risk of playing well under the 85 limit if you lean on the portal to fill rosters. Kids can be in the portal but it doesn't mean that they will have many options for landing spots. HS kids on the other hand have a big advantage as they haven't burned any years and you can assume will stay for 3.4 years (factoring in the portal/nfl departures).

This is a bit complicated. I'm thinking we bring in someone with some NBA experience, as they deal with this craziness all the time (expiring contracts leading to ridiculous trades). Maybe someone from the Andy elisburg tree. We can't get this or the next recruiting class wrong, with the momentum we have going.

 

[Canes Legacy]

The main theme and some of the thoughts and questions in this thread helped inspire the last show we did on the CIS YouTube channel. Tried to go position by position and figure out how we’d get back to 85.

 

[GojiraCane]

I believe the issue is some schools don’t have the money to carry that many scholarship athletes. But then also if you let football have more you have to let women’s volleyball have more. Which adds up monetarily. Cause whatever the football players get the other athletes get too. Even tho they don’t being in any money to the school

That’s an interesting point not raised elsewhere. I know of one school in the ACC (not Miami and certainly not FSU) that theoretically cannot sign anyone in 2022 given their current roster size and composition.