I agree with everything except for the “the class boils down to the season” component. While a very good season can lead to a few more blue chips flipping or coming on board, your meat and potatoes are done during the summer. It’s an undeniable fact and an ever-growing trend. Mario is not some superhuman.
So yes, nothing is solidified until pen meets paper in December. But it’s much, much harder to flip a kid than it is to hold onto one. And the numbers suggest the pool to pick from gets exponentially smaller as we head into November/December.