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Recruiting: Chess vs Checkers

I’m not saying don’t go for 4 and 5 stars - obviously we all want them. We also aren’t Georgia or Bama right now. But what I’m saying is let’s see this out. There is more to the story than just looking at it head on. I can also cut data 100 different ways to Sunday to prove my point. That’s pretty easy to do.

We need both - high end 4/5 stars and guys that have ability and body composition / upside who need some seasoning. We’ll get both.

Everyone expects us to get every top guy and the reality is that just doesn’t happen. If you play chess - there is a strategy and I truly believe Mario and team are doing just that. Give it a chance -
If I’m wrong I’d be the first one to admit it. But only time will tell.
 
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90scane said:
TCU says hold my beer.

And before you say “they got destroyed”, Miami hasn’t even made the playoffs. If the goal is to make the playoffs before they include 12 teams, you may want to take the high upside 3* south Florida kids and develop them.
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TCU played a bunch of teams with the same sh*tty recruiting classes as them in the regular season. The only two teams with any kind of recruiting class rankings on their schedule, tanked. And they still played how many one score games against that sh*tty talent schedule?

Having an insanely lucky season in a sh*t talent conference, is not a model that can be duplicated.
 
mossmadness said:
TCU played a bunch of teams with the same sh*tty recruiting classes as them in the regular season. The only two teams with any kind of recruiting class rankings on their schedule, tanked. And they still played how many one score games against that sh*tty talent schedule?

Having an insanely lucky season in a sh*t talent conference, is not a model that can be duplicated.
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Have you looked at the ACC lately?

Clemson and FSU…then a bunch of below average recruiting classes. Heck, even FSU has been using the portal to prop up their team of late.
 
What I like that has piqued my interest is that we're back filling now while the pickings are good for that level of player rather than scrambling at the beginning of Dec like previous staffs that failed here. These kids have been seen and tested in person and have impressed obviously. To me that's a positive.

That said, there's no doubt we need to start closing/announcing the big stars of the class at the Riley level of talent. Then have the kinda season that'll make the sell easier to land or flip the fence sitters. I have faith Mario and Co. will do this.

Go Canes! :11263272045-489f4f7972-o:
 
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90scane said:
TCU says hold my beer.

And before you say “they got destroyed”, Miami hasn’t even made the playoffs. If the goal is to make the playoffs before they include 12 teams, you may want to take the high upside 3* south Florida kids and develop them.
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They are the exception, not the rule. Why anyone continues to argue that stars or highly ranked classes don't matter is baffling. The fact is they unequivocally do.

College Football Playoff teams and champions by year.

2022-23
1. Georgia (champs)
2. Michigan
3. TCU
4. Ohio State

2021-2022
1. Alabama
2. Michigan
3. Georgia (champs)
4. Cincy

2020-2021
1. Alabama (champs)
2. Clemson
3. Ohio State
4. Notre Dame

2019-2020
1. LSU (champs)
2. Clemson
3. Ohio State
4. Oklahoma

2018-2019
1. Alabama
2. Clemson (champs)
3. Notre Dame
4. Oklahoma

2017-2018
1. Clemson
2. Oklahoma
3. Georgia
4. Alabama (champs)

2016-2017
1. Alabama
2. Clemson (champs)
3. Washington
4. Ohio State

2015-2016
1. Clemson
2. Alabama (champs)
3. Michigan
4. Oklahoma

2014-2015
1. Alabama
2. Oregon
3. Florida State
4. Ohio State (champs)

Out of the 36 teams who have participated in the CFBP, 32 of those teams averaged a top 10 or much better recruiting class the 3 previous years. That is a staggering 89%. When you look at the list, you see the same teams over and over. They are the same teams who recruit at an elite level. And most have the added advantage of having elite staffs.

Simple fact is, in a 4 team CFBP Mario would at the bare minimum need to stack top 10 class after top 10 class. Because the data says he does and to boot, he is far from an elite coach as well as this staff. Luckily for us, the playoff is expanding to 12 teams.
 
Absolutely we need a top recruiting class but not everyone in that class is going to be 4 and 5 stars. So we need to trust great evaluations which we are doing and I go back South Florida 3’s can be higher. But the original post is to say give this a chance. We are building the right pipelines, doing better evaluations and playing chess not checkers.
 
It's going to come down to the evaluation skills of Highsmith and Cristobal. At least Frederique has a good reason to be a 3-star kid. He grew late. More exposure this year, and he'll probably get upgraded.
 
sally kohn logic GIF by The Opposite of Hate
 
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jdg3158 said:
Absolutely we need a top recruiting class but not everyone in that class is going to be 4 and 5 stars. So we need to trust great evaluations which we are doing and I go back South Florida 3’s can be higher. But the original post is to say give this a chance. We are building the right pipelines, doing better evaluations and playing chess not checkers.
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You can't take 10+ 3 stars in a class or multiple classes and compete at an elite level. The data supports that 100%. Below are just a few teams that we see at the top year in and year out.

Alabama has taken 8 total 3 stars in there last 4 classes combined. An average of 2 per class.

Ohio State has taken 12 total 3 stars in there last 4 classes combined. An average of 3 per class.

Georgia has taken 22 total 3 stars in there last 4 classes combined. An average of 5.5 per class.

Clemson has taken 24 total 3 stars in there last 4 classes combined. An average of 6 per class.

Right now we have 11 3 stars committed. Last year we signed 7. We have to keep the average per class to 7 at worst based on the data just to potentially be in the convo with the big boys.
 
But to get to the big boys you have to win! Look at Clemson’s recruiting classes of 3 stars for the NCs they won and competed with - they didn’t have top 5 classes If my memory serves me. Curios what that looks like.

Additionally if you are top 5 like those above - you are not getting many 3 stars. I get it. Thats the reality but you can run before you walk and you can’t walk before you crawl. It’s a process that doesn’t happen over night so we need to be really good at evaluations and picking up and filling the class more methodically. And do our best to convince the top guys to come. We’ve had more 4 and 5 star guys walk thru the door this year and last than I can remember. It’s not for lack of trying. They are going to do their best and get whatever they can.

I’d love all 5 stars who wouldn’t but it’s not reality. But we aren’t elite yet. Not even close so we have to stop assuming like we are at that level yet. And let me ask this - if you had a son who’s a high 4 star or 5. Who you gonna trust more Bama or Georgia or Miami. Right now we aren’t in that conversation. Can we yes. But it’s not happening this year or next.

I’m from Miami, went to Miami live eat and bleed Miami and I’m biased but if my son is a 5 star there is no doubt in my mind those other schools are gonna be looked at heavily and I hate all of them!
 
STG said:
You can't take 10+ 3 stars in a class or multiple classes and compete at an elite level. The data supports that 100%. Below are just a few teams that we see at the top year in and year out.

Alabama has taken 8 total 3 stars in there last 4 classes combined. An average of 2 per class.

Ohio State has taken 12 total 3 stars in there last 4 classes combined. An average of 3 per class.

Georgia has taken 22 total 3 stars in there last 4 classes combined. An average of 5.5 per class.

Clemson has taken 24 total 3 stars in there last 4 classes combined. An average of 6 per class.

Right now we have 11 3 stars committed. Last year we signed 7. We have to keep the average per class to 7 at worst based on the data just to potentially be in the convo with the big boys.
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I'm not against 3-star kids bc there are many that pan out and some of the current 3-star commits i do like, similar to last year.

That said, you cannot make a class of them and compete with the big boys, nor should Miami need that right now with their NIL game. I'm being patient right now bc it's early in summer, but if some of the bigger names don't start popping soon, i will be seriously concerned. Right now, Miami has a lower avg star rating than Purdue and Texas Tech.
 
bobbydigius said:
Here is the thing though… Mario has been proven to be an elite recruiter which to me is selling a kid on a program/vision and connecting with said kid to get his signature. Evals are separate to me and I’m not calling Mario a slouch but how has he proven, outside of OL, that he is an elite evaluator?

I’m not saying he is trash because he is way way better than anything we have had and he has more/better resources but what proof is there that he is elite? What can we run on that shows more often than not he will see a player that the high majority just miss on?

We have multiple kids in this class where no one else sees what he sees. Day will be an interesting one as he is in LSU’s backyard. Why have they not taken notice? Of course Mario could prove to be an elite evaluator in time here but I haven’t seen anything yet to prove that is all and I’m confused by the blind faith. Actually, that’s a lie, I’m not confused, I think it’s just a page out of the playbook, I’m just pointing out that we are attributing something that has yet to be proven.
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You make an important distinction that a lot of people miss: recruiting and evaluating are two separate things. As you said, recruiting is the ability to connect, sell a kid on the future, and get pen to paper. Evaluation is completely different. First you have to know the set of traits that are required to be successful at the next level, then you have to identify them in the player, or see the potential for the player to develop those traits.

Mario has shown the ability to be an elite recruiter, but elite evaluator...? It might be a bit early to judge, but in his first couple classes at Oregon he didn't show any special ability to find NFL talent. Until he shows otherwise, there is reason to be a little sceptical about so many 3* takes that proven evaluators like Swinney, Smart, and Saban (as well as other blue-blood programs) don't seem to have any real interest in.
 
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jdg3158 said:
But to get to the big boys you have to win! Look at Clemson’s recruiting classes of 3 stars for the NCs they won and competed with - they didn’t have top 5 classes If my memory serves me. Curios what that looks like.
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Clemson didn't have top 5 classes in overall ranking, but they ranked higher in average rating per recruit than overall class during their run because they took quality over quantity. Their model was based on that and landing back-to-back generational talents at QB in Watson and Lawrence. Both were premier recruits who paid off massively as Watson was a Top 100 overall player and Lawrence was obviously a 5* and the #1 overall player in the 2018 class. Needless to say, our QB recruiting from '22-'23 (thus far) is the polar opposite of that, so this isn't a model that applies to us at all right now.

For example, their 2014 class with Watson had 11 4*'s and 7 3*'s. They nailed a few very important 3*'s along the way with the most obvious one being an athletic freak in Isaiah Simmons (high 3*), but the foundation of those championship teams was at QB and with other top-rated talent at premier positions like:

DT Dexter Lawrence (5* turned 1st rounder)
[BGCOLOR=initial]WR Tee Higgins (5* turned high 2nd rounder)[/BGCOLOR]
DT Christian Wilkins (5* turned 1st rounder)
OT Jackson Carman (5* turned 2nd rounder)
CB A.J. Terrell (top 60 overall player and high 4* turned 1st rounder)
CB Travyon Mullen (top 70 overall player and high 4* turned 2nd rounder)
WR Amari Rodgers (top 125 overall player and high 4* turned 3rd rounder)
RB Travis Etienne (solid 4* turned 1st rounder)
WR Justyn Ross (high 4* who was an absolute star in their 2018 title run before injuries derailed him)

Elite QB's, WR's, CB's, and DT's were their ticket along with solid, experienced college OL's. Clemson's model illustrates part of why a bigger emphasis should be placed on the talent you land at premier positions and average rating per recruit than overall class ranking.
 
bobbydigius said:
Here is the thing though… Mario has been proven to be an elite recruiter which to me is selling a kid on a program/vision and connecting with said kid to get his signature. Evals are separate to me and I’m not calling Mario a slouch but how has he proven, outside of OL, that he is an elite evaluator?

I’m not saying he is trash because he is way way better than anything we have had and he has more/better resources but what proof is there that he is elite? What can we run on that shows more often than not he will see a player that the high majority just miss on?

We have multiple kids in this class where no one else sees what he sees. Day will be an interesting one as he is in LSU’s backyard. Why have they not taken notice? Of course Mario could prove to be an elite evaluator in time here but I haven’t seen anything yet to prove that is all
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That's what's everyone is missing. It's too early. None of the "evaluations have hit the field yet. The problem is we don't have a history or track record of Mario's' (or Alonzo's) evaluations.

You have to put a stake in the ground and make your evaluation offers early. The alternative is the Manny Diaz strategy of going after "whales" and at last minute, if not enough of them (or any) commit, scramble for reaches. We tried that and it didn't work out too well.
bobbydigius said:
and I’m confused by the blind faith. Actually, that’s a lie, I’m not confused, I think it’s just a page out of the playbook, I’m just pointing out that we are attributing something that has yet to be proven.
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What most forget is that the stacked rosters from the 80's and early 90s were mostly from the same pool of 3*s and lower 4*s. There were few highly regarded national recruits. That's why these JJ and Butch are so highly regarded as evaluators.

And I don't want to hear any nonsense that recruiting have changed. Everyone has always known where the studs were. What's changed is sorting through the larger pool just below them. We had an advantage of a large pool locally where we can establish relationships early. Now that has gone national. If anything, it makes evaluations (and subsequent development) even more important.
 
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TpaBayFlyFisher said:
Mario has been given more than any other Miami head coach and to show for it we have 5-7 and a 7-8 rated class. Now we are looking at a 31st ranked class while the gators are 3-4 and Noles are ranked preseason to 5. Show me something Mario. I am not betting on the come again.
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Fair. Just don't go dark side and betting don't come. Regardless of the odds, those types should be forcibly removed from the table.

The same rationale applies here.
 
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