Recruiting: Chess vs Checkers

[jdg3158]

Mario and Team are playing chess. Manny played checkers.

(1) For the last 10 years we’ve been trying to build relationships and get players at IMG and St Thomas only to strike out. Guys that get drafted. Now we are building those pipelines - chess. Same with other Top local programs.

(2) Stop looking at just stars. Yes the 5 stars many are amazing and pan out but between the 3 and 4 it’s not the same. Not to mention South Florida 3 stars are often better than advertised.

(3) Listen to @Coach Macho - he knows his stuff. He sees ALL these kids. Give credit where credit is due and he says this new kid has ELITE feet and skill. Kid also sprouted up. Relax.

(4) We have an unlimited class to take - lets get our local South Florida kids and then hunt outside and attack the other states.

(5) This can’t be overlooked - our coaches are getting these kids on campus - looking at them, seeing them in pads, seeing their bodies and how they develop, testing them, etc.. Making REAL evaluations, in person and not just relying on recruiting site rankings. That is something we didn’t do a lot in the past. We also have Alonzo in house and that can’t be overlooked.

(6) Lastly this is what Butch did. Our greatest recruiter ever. Look at his teams and finding gems others overlooked. Not to mention recruiting for Mario in Oregon was very different than Miami. Oregon does not produce a lot of talent and gems like South Florida. He had to recruit a bit different. We have the luxury of a massive talent pool to look at.

Chess versus Checkers

 

[305to954]

I agree with a lot here. Comparing 90s recruitment and evaluation to today..not sure about that but what is certain is MC is an elite recruiter & most of our meat is still on the bone. It’s about closing this summer. But it starts this month going into august in order to have a honest view

 

[kccanefan]

 

[mossmadness]

Do not stop looking at the stars.
It’s the most important thing to look at it.
There are no teams that are an exception to that.
And nothing about Mario has ever shown he has some secret talent decoder ring.

 

[westcoastcanes]

Checkers has been winning more games and getting more guys to the nfl for years.

 

[TpaBayFlyFisher]

Mario has been given more than any other Miami head coach and to show for it we have 5-7 and a 7-8 rated class. Now we are looking at a 31st ranked class while the gators are 3-4 and Noles are ranked preseason to 5. Show me something Mario. I am not betting on the come again.

 

[Cuddlefish]

 

[theibisrules]

Stars Rule Everything Around Me....SREAM, get the top recruits with the dolla dolla bill yall.

***SARCASM

 

[bobbydigius]

I agree with a lot here. Comparing 90s recruitment and evaluation to today..not sure about that but what is certain is MC is an elite recruiter & most of our meat is still on the bone. It’s about closing this summer. But it starts this month going into august in order to have a honest view

Here is the thing though… Mario has been proven to be an elite recruiter which to me is selling a kid on a program/vision and connecting with said kid to get his signature. Evals are separate to me and I’m not calling Mario a slouch but how has he proven, outside of OL, that he is an elite evaluator?

I’m not saying he is trash because he is way way better than anything we have had and he has more/better resources but what proof is there that he is elite? What can we run on that shows more often than not he will see a player that the high majority just miss on?

We have multiple kids in this class where no one else sees what he sees. Day will be an interesting one as he is in LSU’s backyard. Why have they not taken notice? Of course Mario could prove to be an elite evaluator in time here but I haven’t seen anything yet to prove that is all and I’m confused by the blind faith. Actually, that’s a lie, I’m not confused, I think it’s just a page out of the playbook, I’m just pointing out that we are attributing something that has yet to be proven.

 

[theibisrules]

Mario and Team are playing chess. Manny played checkers.

(1) For the last 10 years we’ve been trying to build relationships and get players at IMG and St Thomas only to strike out. Guys that get drafted. Now we are building those pipelines - chess. Same with other Top local programs.

(2) Stop looking at just stars. Yes the 5 stars many are amazing and pan out but between the 3 and 4 it’s not the same. Not to mention South Florida 3 stars are often better than advertised.

(3) Listen to @Coach Macho - he knows his stuff. He sees ALL these kids. Give credit where credit is due and he says this new kid has ELITE feet and skill. Kid also sprouted up. Relax.

(4) We have an unlimited class to take - lets get our local South Florida kids and then hunt outside and attack the other states.

(5) This can’t be overlooked - our coaches are getting these kids on campus - looking at them, seeing them in pads, seeing their bodies and how they develop, testing them, etc.. Making REAL evaluations, in person and not just relying on recruiting site rankings. That is something we didn’t do a lot in the past. We also have Alonzo in house and that can’t be overlooked.

(6) Lastly this is what Butch did. Our greatest recruiter ever. Look at his teams and finding gems others overlooked. Not to mention recruiting for Mario in Oregon was very different than Miami. Oregon does not produce a lot of talent and gems like South Florida. He had to recruit a bit different. We have the luxury of a massive talent pool to look at.

Chess versus Checkers

Post moar sir!!!

 

[WeBallinBoyz]

I’m just going to post a bunch of information that quite literally proves stars matter long-term. If you don’t like the data, that’s fine. Doesn’t mean it’s wrong.

First excerpt is from a study done based on 247Composite rankings from 2011-2021.

“…So what do those star ratings mean when it comes to an NFL future? They are not perfect. But they have measurable positive predictive value. A five-star player is more than 260% more likely to be drafted than a four-star player. A four-star player is more than 450% more likely to be drafted than a three-star player. And a three-star player is ten times more likely to be drafted than someone falling below that threshold.” - https://lastwordonsports.com/collegefootball/2021/07/12/what-do-those-star-ratings-mean/amp/

On3 data reveals 5-star recruits have 63% draft rate

Data collected by On3 from the past five NFL drafts show that the major recruiting media companies have been getting it right when handing out stars.

www.on3.com

This is a screenshot from 2004-2013

If you want more, just let me know.

 

[Jassid82]

Do not stop looking at the stars.
It’s the most important thing to look at it.
There are no teams that are an exception to that.
And nothing about Mario has ever shown he has some secret talent decoder ring.

Hmm..would love to know the starts around how many times Mario has had recruiting class outside the top 10 while at Oregon. If the answer is never, that tells you all you need to know imo

 

[mossmadness]

Here is the thing though… Mario has been proven to be an elite recruiter which to me is selling a kid on a program/vision and connecting with said kid to get his signature. Evals are separate to me and I’m not calling Mario a slouch but how has he proven, outside of OL, that he is an elite evaluator?

I’m not saying he is trash because he is way way better than anything we have had and he has more/better resources but what proof is there that he is elite? What can we run on that shows more often than not he will see a player that the high majority just miss on?

We have multiple kids in this class where no one else sees what he sees. Day will be an interesting one as he is in LSU’s backyard. Why have they not taken notice? Of course Mario could prove to be an elite evaluator in time here but I haven’t seen anything yet to prove that is all and I’m confused by the blind faith. Actually, that’s a lie, I’m not confused, I think it’s just a page out of the playbook, I’m just pointing out that we are attributing something that has yet to be proven.

Yeah, I’m not sure where this idea that Mario is some Gary Patterson or Mark Dantonio, came from?

Also, where are those guys now? The 3* train catches up to every coach, even if you can make it work for a little bit.

 

[EightiesCane]

I’m just going to post a bunch of information that quite literally proves stars matter long-term. If you don’t like the data, that’s fine. Doesn’t mean it’s wrong.

First excerpt is from a study done based on 247Composite rankings from 2011-2021.

“…So what do those star ratings mean when it comes to an NFL future? They are not perfect. But they have measurable positive predictive value. A five-star player is more than 260% more likely to be drafted than a four-star player. A four-star player is more than 450% more likely to be drafted than a three-star player. And a three-star player is ten times more likely to be drafted than someone falling below that threshold.” - https://lastwordonsports.com/collegefootball/2021/07/12/what-do-those-star-ratings-mean/amp/

On3 data reveals 5-star recruits have 63% draft rate

Data collected by On3 from the past five NFL drafts show that the major recruiting media companies have been getting it right when handing out stars.

www.on3.com

View attachment 244415

This is a screenshot from 2004-2013

View attachment 244410

If you want more, just let me know.

Doesn't that screenshot also prove that more 3 Stars get drafted than 4 and 5 stars together?

 

[01Canes]

Yes the 5 stars many are amazing and pan out but between the 3 and 4 it’s not the same.”

The latter part of this statement isn’t even remotely accurate. If you want to claim there’s a minimal difference between a borderline low 4* recruit in the 89-90 range and a high 3* recruit in the 87-88 range, then I’d be curious to see the data on that. But there’s unequivocally a world of difference between a high 4* recruit in the 95-97 range and a low 4* recruit in the 89-90 range.

We have a grand total of 1 Top 100 overall recruit (Riley) out of 14 commits. Only 2 Top 300 overall recruits (Riley and Robinson) among those 14 commits. We have 11 3*’s currently committed. UGA, Bama, and OSU signed a total of 6 3* recruits combined in 2023. Are they playing checkers or are they ending up in the CFB playoff every year?

If this class was stacked with Top 100 players, you’d be gloating about the class ranking like everybody else. But because this class is 3* rich as can be, you’re pivoting to the board trope of chess not checkers. The highest drafted players Mario recruited to Oregon were a pair of 5*’s in Sewell and Thibodeaux. Jevon Holland was a Top 175 overall recruit and rock solid 4* turned Top 40 draft pick.

 

[01Canes]

Doesn't that screenshot also prove that more 3 Stars get drafted than 4 or 5 stars?

There are infinitely more 3* recruits in quantity every year than 4* and 5* recruits combined, which is why any discussion about how important blue-chip ratio is must revolve around percentages.

A recruiting analysis from a couple years ago showed that for each recruiting class, there’s an average of 33 five-star players, 332 four-star players, 2,087 three-star players, and 10,044 players below that.

 

[305to954]

Here is the thing though… Mario has been proven to be an elite recruiter which to me is selling a kid on a program/vision and connecting with said kid to get his signature. Evals are separate to me and I’m not calling Mario a slouch but how has he proven, outside of OL, that he is an elite evaluator?

I’m not saying he is trash because he is way way better than anything we have had and he has more/better resources but what proof is there that he is elite? What can we run on that shows more often than not he will see a player that the high majority just miss on?

We have multiple kids in this class where no one else sees what he sees. Day will be an interesting one as he is in LSU’s backyard. Why have they not taken notice? Of course Mario could prove to be an elite evaluator in time here but I haven’t seen anything yet to prove that is all and I’m confused by the blind faith. Actually, that’s a lie, I’m not confused, I think it’s just a page out of the playbook, I’m just pointing out that we are attributing something that has yet to be proven.

I wouldn’t call it “blind faith”. He’s signed blue chip guys but he’s also been credited for evaluating as well. A kid like Dye or Dorlus who developed at Oregon but were 3stars..He’s been here 1 season. So I think tryna evaluate his developmental type takes will take at least 3/ 4 years. I’ve seen the concern pop up about this kid and that kid here’ constantly. Personally I don’t get the concern at all. Numbers have to be thrown at certain position groups. Tbh I’m not attributing anything to anyone. Idk how these kids will turn out..that said the reason I have faith in MC when it comes to this is because he’s relentless and is going after the types needed to consistently finish top 1-10 in recruiting each season..and this will be no different Imo..we have to win on the field tho, personally I’m confident we will be solid. Well see

 

[Canes Legacy]

More like connect 3 (stars), am I right?

 

[90scane]

Do not stop looking at the stars.
It’s the most important thing to look at it.
There are no teams that are an exception to that.
And nothing about Mario has ever shown he has some secret talent decoder ring.

TCU says hold my beer.

And before you say “they got destroyed”, Miami hasn’t even made the playoffs. If the goal is to make the playoffs before they include 12 teams, you may want to take the high upside 3* south Florida kids and develop them.

 

[bobbydigius]

I wouldn’t call it “blind faith”. He’s signed blue chip guys but he’s also been credited for evaluating as well. A kid like Dye or Dorlus who developed at Oregon but were 3stars..He’s been here 1 season. So I think tryna evaluate his developmental type takes will take at least 3/ 4 years. I’ve seen the concern pop up about this kid and that kid here’ constantly. Personally I don’t get the concern at all. Numbers have to be thrown at certain position groups. Tbh I’m not attributing anything to anyone. Idk how these kids will turn out..that said the reason I have faith in MC when it comes to this is because he’s relentless and is going after the types needed to consistently finish top 1-10 in recruiting each season..and this will be no different Imo..we have to win on the field tho, personally I’m confident we will be solid. Well see

Well we agree that he is an elite recruiter and I for one still think he lands a top 10 class. Of course he isn’t a trash evaluator I just don’t see an elite one. Dorlus was a three star but had a Clemson and UF offer. I’m not talking about players like Pruitt. I’m talking Russell, Romanas and Judd. It’s when no else sees what Mario sees and people try to convince you that Mario just better than everyone at this. Reality is that he made his name recruiting the big time players and we for some reason have yet reel them in.

Once again, I think we land a top 10 class but I just don’t like when posters, not talking you in particular, just can’t call a spade a spade. Our class as of this moment is ****** underwhelming. Don’t posture with statements like, he actually sees these kids in person blah blah blah, are we supposed to believe that just about every coach at a serious program doesn’t do the same? They just recruit off of lists? It’s just an insulting rationalization