@TheOriginalCane @nycane @DMoney @canesdude @SWFLHurricane @Brooklyndee @Cribby @Peter Ariz et al,
How much do you estimate recruiting budgets have gone up from pre-NIL (bags only) to NIL era? I know there's no way to track that. But based on your experience and ties to the program, what do you think the inflation has been?
Based on public leaks related to NIL deals, I'm guessing top teams are now in the 10M range annually at this point, given the need not only to fund 25 new kids a class, but keep funding the 85 total kids on roster -- i.e., $100K+ per roster spot per year on average, with QBs, WRs, DL and OTs getting outsized shares of that amount. Is that about right?
Do you think it's sustainable?
Uhhh...there's a lot to unpack there. Including the fact that NIL is not really a part of "recruiting budgets" (I know, I know, I'm always the overly-technical guy in the argument who ***** things up)...
Let's just talk about "pre-NIL" for a minute. First, there was always "splash" money that got tossed around during recruitment. The money was usually mid 5-figure to low 6-figure for a recruit, and the concept was always "there will be more". Cars were purchased (or leased). Apartments were leased. So all the up-front shenanigans, if you added up all the players getting "bags", I can't see it exceeding a million or two for any given year at some schools that paid for multiple players, though not the whole recruiting class.
Now, whether guys were ALSO getting money post-enrollment, it's hard to tell. If you ask around, a lot of players had broken promises, and no method for how to collect what was "promised" to them. Without a doubt, some kids continued to get handouts throughout college, but probably not as many who were "promised" during their recruitment that money would be paid. Again, I'd be willing to bet that this might have been a mill or two, but possibly even lower that the initial outlay, since there was no enforcement and transferring was painful.
The "hope" and "promise" of NIL was that a lot of this stuff could become legal and formalized and transparent. So the shift now (and you can see it in the terminology by whiners like Gaytor fans) is that paying a guy BEFORE HE ENROLLS is more analogous to the "old bag game", while the NIL money paid post-enrollment should be perfrectly legal (though not always declared on a 1099).
From speaking with a certain poster on this board (who has done a few NIL deals with athletes), the "local businessman" NIL deals do not have to be huge money. If this poster wants to weigh in, he can, but I won't disclose without his permission. He has signed at least one football player and at least one baseball player to NIL deals. Now, this was not "pre-enrollment" or even really part of a recruiting pitch or promise. That's more "Ruiz money" or "collective money" type territory.
And for comparative purposes...if the "claims" are to be believed, and university alums/boosters/collectives are now budgeting low 8-figure sums...well then, the "budget" is definitely bigger than it once was, perhaps by as much as 8 to 10 times at the more active schools. Hard to know for certain, though, as it was illegal and decentralized. I'm just estimating based on what individual athletes have told me, not from what a particularly rich booster told me.
