Occam's razor doesn't say what it think you says in this case because you're ignoring information that doesn't agree with your conclusion and giving absolute, 100% uncritical weight to one single piece of information. FWIW - I've observed
@Cribby being correct far more often than I've observed recruits telling the truth to the press about their recruitment.
And "if someone tells you who they are, believe them" just doesn't apply here because you're not a stakeholder in the decision making process. If the kid told Mario or his parents or someone actually involved, then sure. But like me, you're external to what's actually happening, and so you need to view his statements with a more critical eye than you are. Remember, we're the product here - if he does commit here he'll presumably want to monetize his commitment, both initially and long-term. One way to do that is to create suspense behind it.