Cam wants to wait as long as possible so he can get as clear a picture on his NFL draft stock as he possibly can. The longer he waits the more individual teams he can hear back from.
Or maybe he wants the decision to be made for him by missing out on all the best portal landing spots?
Or does he know that he can portal in May and probably still find a really good landing spot?
In my mind, 4th round is the gray area.
1st-3rd, he's gone. 5th-7th, he stays in college
4th is situational.
There's 5 4th round and later QBs who have been given the opportunity to start games the last few years.
Aiden O'Connell Raiders
DTR Cleveland
Bailey Zappe NE
Sam Howell Washington
And of course Brock Purdy SF
Maybe Cam thinks if he just gets a chance to start he can earn his way up?
True, but none of those guys got their chance to start because they were better and the Head Coach made them QB1. Each of these guys are starting for reasons beyond their abilities. Here's a list of QB's drafted and their round. 4-7 round qbs are absolutely ******.
4th round qbs make around $800K a year for four years (barely above league minimum). Ward can play for Miami (make half of his NFL salary), make the college football playoff, improve his draft stock and battle Ewers, Weigman, Sanders, Allar, and Jalon Daniels. I sure would like my chances against them instead of against Williams, Maye, Jayden Daniels, Nix, and Penix. Cam Ward is at least 6th (and that's generous) of the QBs in this year's draft.
In 2023, the sixth QB was taken in the 4th round
In 2022, the sixth QB was taken in the 5th round (and this was a WEAK QB class; Pickett was the 1st QB off the board. He went 20th, and no QB was taken in the 2nd round.
In 2021, one of the deepest QB classes, the 6th QB off the board was in the 2nd round.
In 2020, the 6th QB off the board was 4th round.
So, history shows that in majority of NFL drafts, the 6th best QB is taken in the 4th round or later. This season, Ward would be the 6th best QB and that's if Sanders and Pratt don't declare (but I think Pratt will stick in the process of declaring). So this year, Ward is behind Williams, Maye, Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix, and Penix. And if Sanders declares, he will be behind Sanders. Ward may even be behind Pratt. You're looking at the 8th best QB on the big board. That's not 4th round.
Ward has a better shot of signing with Miami, making 2 million, improve his draft stock in a weaker draft class.