Flat makes sense. Nobody is picking on the Canes, or making claims against the roster or against the coaching staff that they wouldn't make against someone else in the same spot. It's not Miami specific. As I mentioned early in the week, teams that experience their first loss late in the season tend to deflate in the short term. It's particularly true if that team has overachieved so far. We were rated #27 before the season. More often that not, a team like that will play back toward #27. I'm not going to pretend Oregon will collapse after one loss. They were birthrighted an early ranking. Miami is a logical candidate to falter. You'll certainly fare much better in the long term grasping a basic reality like that, than by nitpicking personnel and trying to assert an edge here and an edge there.
The spread has plummeted this morning. It's down to -5 at many spots with a low of -4.5. I don't know what took so long. It made very little sense to remain at -6.5. There were even some scattered -7 remaining last night. As I mentioned after I took the +7, the combination of the power rating gap and the home field allotment to Sun Life did not justify -7. Sun Life is well known as a venue worth 1.5 to 2 points. The late money always shows on the road team if the home field edge is in the 3 point range at Sun Life. That's one of the reasons it's so laughable to pretend we don't need to get out of this building. In the old days at the Orange Bowl, our home edge would be bet up to the 3.5 to 5 range above the power rating indication. We are happily forfeiting 2 points per game at this venue.
Let me emphasize that I still root for the Canes, even if I bet against them. I mentioned that months ago here. I bet thousands of games per year and root passionately for only a few teams. When there is conflict, I have no trouble defaulting to the team I've backed since childhood on Friday night. I would be a dunce to pretend they were the right side 100% of the time.
I don't hit the greatest percentage. I do have a good instinct toward line movement. Thats part of the game. There's one ticket writer in Las Vegas who started writing down all my bets, and telling his friends to do the same. I was puzzled until I asked him about it: "You don't always win, but the number always moves in the direction you bet."