Princeton Breakdown

[Lance Roffers]

I felt last weekend's breakdown of Niagara to be pretty on point and some good food for thought. Shoutout @Lance Roffers for being spot on with his preview & @Cane44 for starting a thread last week.

So I figured we could get one going for this weekend as Princeton hasn't played a game this year so there's no current film to go off of.

From stats and last seasons performance it looks like they have a good sidearmer out of the pen and about 3 returning players who hit decent last year.

Looks like we should win all 4 this weekend, any less would be a concern

Would love to hear yall's thoughts!

I'll run them through the model this morning. Cool to hear someone found it useful last time.

 

[Lance Roffers]

Princeton returns their closer (Jacob Faulkner), who is a command specialist who gets tons of ground balls. He was their closer, but he actually led them in innings pitched by a large margin. I'm not sure if they'll convert him to be their Friday guy or if they like using him as a multi-inning reliever who can win a game late. His advanced metrics say he was a little fortunate on balls in play, but overall his numbers were legitimate.

Their top starter last year was a freshman who had a really poor ERA, but underlying metrics say he was pretty good and he was terribly unlucky on not just balls in play, but his strand rate was comically low.

One of their best arms (Justin Kim) started the season well and then got hurt and missed the rest of the year. I don't know his status for this weekend, but I'd doubt he will be ready.

They return most of their pitching staff and rotation, but they were fairly meh on the mound after those two above, and the relievers were downright pitiful last year with a major propensity for walks.

Princeton returns seven of their nine starters on offense, losing their second best hitter to Wake Forest and one of their power sources to Duke, but he actually lost his job to another player and was moved to DH, so the loss is lessened there.

As is typical of the Ivy League, they bring in no new transfers, only freshmen. None of their freshmen are especially well-regarded.

Because of this club being more experienced and much better defensively than Niagara, they will present more challenges. Their best player is All-Ivy League 2B Jake Koonin.

Picked fourth in the Ivy, their best chance at a win is to have Faulkner come in with a lead and go 3-4 IP to close one out.

Miami should have a few games where they blow up the scoreboard, one game they win pretty easily, and one game that is contested. Princeton is a better team this year than last year according to my model and they won a game against UNC-Wilmington (a strong mid-major program) to start last season, so I wouldn't get overly preoccupied with the amount of time they've practiced outside or not.

If Miami does not score runs on this bullpen outside of Faulkner, we should be highly concerned for the season. They're one of the worst bullpens outside of Faulkner in my model.

Expect Princeton to finish in the mid-200's this season.

 

[Sebastian Font]

Princeton returns their closer (Jacob Faulkner), who is a command specialist who gets tons of ground balls. He was their closer, but he actually led them in innings pitched by a large margin. I'm not sure if they'll convert him to be their Friday guy or if they like using him as a multi-inning reliever who can win a game late. His advanced metrics say he was a little fortunate on balls in play, but overall his numbers were legitimate.

Their top starter last year was a freshman who had a really poor ERA, but underlying metrics say he was pretty good and he was terribly unlucky on not just balls in play, but his strand rate was comically low.

One of their best arms (Justin Kim) started the season well and then got hurt and missed the rest of the year. I don't know his status for this weekend, but I'd doubt he will be ready.

They return most of their pitching staff and rotation, but they were fairly meh on the mound after those two above, and the relievers were downright pitiful last year with a major propensity for walks.

Princeton returns seven of their nine starters on offense, losing their second best hitter to Wake Forest and one of their power sources to Duke, but he actually lost his job to another player and was moved to DH, so the loss is lessened there.

As is typical of the Ivy League, they bring in no new transfers, only freshmen. None of their freshmen are especially well-regarded.

Because of this club being more experienced and much better defensively than Niagara, they will present more challenges. Their best player is All-Ivy League 2B Jake Koonin.

Picked fourth in the Ivy, their best chance at a win is to have Faulkner come in with a lead and go 3-4 IP to close one out.

Miami should have a few games where they blow up the scoreboard, one game they win pretty easily, and one game that is contested. Princeton is a better team this year than last year according to my model and they won a game against UNC-Wilmington (a strong mid-major program) to start last season, so I wouldn't get overly preoccupied with the amount of time they've practiced outside or not.

If Miami does not score runs on this bullpen outside of Faulkner, we should be highly concerned for the season. They're one of the worst bullpens outside of Faulkner in my model.

Expect Princeton to finish in the mid-200's this season.

I've heard that their friday night guy is pretty good but haven't gotten a name yet. Would it probably be that guy with the underlying metrics? Amazing report!

 

[Lance Roffers]

I've heard that their friday night guy is pretty good but haven't gotten a name yet. Would it probably be that guy with the underlying metrics? Amazing report!

Yes, their freshman (Sean Episcope) from last year. Justin Kim had good numbers but like I say, I think he's hurt and still recovering.

If he's healthy, they'll be a team with some scrappy on-base types, solid defense, and decent starters with a nice closer.

Most Ivy teams are solid teams that play small ball and look to get on-base. Not a ton of power normally.

Most don't allow grad players, so you see them to transfer to other high academic schools like Duke, Wake, Virginia etc. every year.

 

[Sebastian Font]

Yes, their freshman (Sean Episcope) from last year. Justin Kim had good numbers but like I say, I think he's hurt and still recovering.

If he's healthy, they'll be a team with some scrappy on-base types, solid defense, and decent starters with a nice closer.

Most Ivy teams are solid teams that play small ball and look to get on-base. Not a ton of power normally.

Most don't allow grad players, so you see them to transfer to other high academic schools like Duke, Wake, Virginia etc. every year.

Yeah, they are seriously strict with their "academic help" quota to get guys in. I was in talks with some Ivy teams, but didn't get in so it meant nothing.