We 100% overrate our talent but I think it goes deeper than that. We also have had a developmental issue with kids, we were just behind in quantity and quality of coaches. I do agree that its very telling on the fact we went to the portal as hard as we did but I think that is more so if we want to compete against the ATMs and Clemson's on our schedule from a talent perspective. I also believe that we are more than adequate in terms of talent as it pertains to the rest of our schedule ie the **** stain that is the Coastal division. We have to not only start winning games where we have a talent advantage but we need to start dominating those games.
I am in agreement on most of the above. I also agree, at least from an aspirational perspective, that we need to start leg-whipping the Coastal (so long as there is a Coastal). And it definitely does not help that we have had clown show HCs and assistant coaches for most of the last 20 years.
For some perspective, here's Miami, Pitt, UNC, and Clemson's 247 total points for the class w/ the recruit average in parenthesis for 2017 through 2021:
+++++ MIA++++++ PITT ++++++ UNC ++++++ Clemson
2021- 266.08 (90.51) 209.14 (86.64) 256.55 (90.87) 291.06 (94.01)
2020- 254.92 (90.05) 192.59 (86.07) 256.79 (88.88) 309.57 (93.44)
2019- 222.07 (88.07) 182.77 (84.91) 218.57 (86.23) 275.55 (89.76)
2018- 280.87 (90.99) 193.19 (85.84) 232.27 (87.80) 283.67 (93.45)
2017- 248.67 (88.68) 202.12 (84.94) 207.81 (86.43) 238.91 (92.10...they only took 14 HS kids)
Clemson held the top spot in the ACC for all but one of those years (3rd in 2017... when they took 10 fewer kids than FSU and UM), UM and UNC were usually somewhere between 2nd and 4th in the conference (w/ a couple of 5th place finishes from UNC), and Pitt is typically somewhere in the middle third of the conference (ranging between 5th to 10th). So on the surface, Miami looks to have a legit talent advantage over every team no named Clemson.
But attrition and straight misses have also kicked our butts. Looking at that 2019 class (who should be upper classmen contributors at this point), our top 2 recruits transferred out (Jeremiah Payton and Christian Williams). We also lost Cameron Williams, Larry Hodges, and Jalar Holley to transfer, and Jason Blissett retired from football. ElGammal isn't on the roster and didn't play a single snap in two seasons. And Sam Brooks has been AWOL this Spring.
Our 2018 class was also fool's gold (and they should have been dominating for us last season), where each of our top 5 recruits either transferred, underperformed, or left early (Lingard, Jordan, Silvera, Pope, J. Williams). Hightower and Hall were two other top-ranked guys who transferred after failing to live up to their ranking. Cam Harris left with eligibility (was basically chased out by some fans). Ezzard was a (low) 4* who transferred out. Nigel Bethel, Patrick Joyner, Dee Wiggins... all transferred and underperformed.
2017 looks rough, too, with a top 6 of Jeff Thomas (suspension + dismissal + left early), Donaldson (did not live up to the hype of a top 75 player), D.J. Johnson (transferred), Perry (god bless him, he tried at the end), Bandy (solid but still left after 3 seasons with eligibility remaining), and Herbert (pure liability on the OL).
What does this all mean? Should we be doing better in the Coastal than we have been doing on sheer talent alone? Almost certainly yes. Is our talent so much better that we should be dominating all of those games? I am not convinced that's the case considering the attrition and lack of performance. Can we do better? It's hard to put on a dominant performance with only a marginal talent advantage. And it's nearly impossible with a coaching disadvantage on top of that. The latter has been erased. And Mario will eventually change the former around, but it's going to take time. Gun to my head, how many regular season wins do I expect for 2022? 9 wins, and we avoid blowout losses (i.e., losing by 17 points or more). But, I wouldn't be surprised if we only won 8 games, or if we managed to win 10 games.