On Judd Anderson

[WeBallinBoyz]

How is anything I’ve said been through emotion? I stated a fact, you said I was wrong, and now I'm proving that I was right and you were wrong in assuming.


The article I shared before already showed that 65% of Power 5 qb's have transferred at least once


here's data from BEFORE the portal really went hard specifically on 4* and 5* recruits, I expect the number to be higher now

You just signed a top-50 QB. The odds he stays have never been lower

To better understand the ROI of QB recruiting, let’s examine four recruiting classes and see how many QBs succeeded where they signed.

theathletic.com

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here's another article with a bigger sample size (but also from two years ago so the number has definitely risen with the influx of the portal the last few years)

4- and 5-star QBs have been transferring at an incredibly high rate over the last decade

This is crazy.

saturdaytradition.com

View attachment 263967


the only thing that has changed in this equation really is NIL and we'll see how that impacts the transfer rate

Tennessee was rumored to give Nico 7 million!?, how much would someone like drake maye or a top level transfer get, probably teh same right?

the trick is living in teh middle, getting good solid evals on a player (we tried with air noland but whiffed). Staff likes Judd and clearly decided to take Judd and then also try their luck in the portal

either way, missing on a top flight high school qb really isn't a big hit in the long run because 70-80% of the time, they never play meaningful snaps for the team they sign to anyways

You should have just started with those articles. That backs up your initial point. A lot of guys just don’t want to sit around and wait to play nowadays, they’re used to being the man in high school and NIL certainly plays a factor.

 

[cway313]

Are you trying to tell me that we won’t take a portal kid?

We have no choice I'm just not sold on it being the right kid.

 

[cway313]

what percent of 4 star and 5 star qb's end up transferring?

here's a hint, a very high proportion

the portal is way safer and missing on high profile high school qb recruit is not a huge deal relative to the % of busts / transfers at the position

most highly rated recruits at the QB position play minimal / zero relevant snaps at the schools they commit to

Safer? Top 15 from last year.

 

[CT Cane 44]

[BGCOLOR=rgb(245, 245, 245)].[/BGCOLOR]

We have no choice I'm just not sold on it being the right kid.

Totally get it.

 

[AUcane]

We have no choice but to take a Portal QB.

We don’t have a starting caliber QB on the roster if TVD leaves & we’re not recruiting any either.

It’s Portal or bust at QB for 2024.

Maybe even 2025 as well

 

[grover]

I agree with D$'s point on focusing the NIL on a transfer QB. But that has nothing to do with the fact we're targeting Judd as the developmental HS QB we take, which remains a poor choice.

 

[grover]

Maybe even 2025 as well

You're going to anger the Emory for Heisman crowd. But I agree.

 

[canecane232323]

I agree with D$'s point on focusing the NIL on a transfer QB. But that has nothing to do with the fact we're targeting Judd as the developmental HS QB we take, which remains a poor choice.

BS. The kid is is good. Not Julian Sayin but better tools good. If you are a confident coach you take him

 

[Zbrod95]

i really don't get the star whores when it comes to qb's specifically. There's such a hilariously bad history of ratings among qb recruits and consistently those under evaluated turn out to be the cream of the crop

for physical / skill positions like DL, LB, Safety yeah but for qb's? just gotta trust Dawson's evals

don't have any reason him to doubt him

Oh there’s plenty of reasons. All he’s fine is show he has a real high ceiling with the season he’s having but he’s still a 2 year guy.

But hey you think our best chance to win is with TVD so your opinion doesn’t mean much.

 

[skeeter]

View attachment 263967

Clear as day ^^

 

[KANE]

I’ve said this the entire time and even absolutely roasted Judd early in the season this year. Still think that’s the case. And yes Ole Miss told him to find somewhere else to play college ball.

Judd has made serious progress since moving to Warner Robins. Weird because I think Jones County has the better coach. His OL is better at WR and gives him time to step into and make his throws and he’s getting more comfortable. He also has an elite HS WR that he can just throw it up to.

All of what you said here is correct. Mike is a better HC/OC by a good bit. But WR has more team talent surrounding him.

 

[KANE]

And five-star QBs aren’t in high demand? The Portal has more supply and easier evaluations.

They don’t all have to be instant Heismans like Caleb Williams. You pay big for those guys, but you can also get someone with tools who may have been in a bad situation (i.e. Bo Nix and Jayden Daniels). Those players are easier to evaluate accurately because of the college film.

Facts! And it’s easier to find out how big of a bag it’s gonna take to secure their signature. HS jits and they handlers be all over the place.

 

[Rellyrell]

A lot higher than 5 stars based on numbers. I don’t know why people mention Anderson. The QB In this class will be from the portal.

Let’s look at this to see if this is accurate.

Composite 5* QBs since 2005:
-Perrilloux (Bust)
-Sanchez (1st round pick - college win% .875)
-Tebow (1st round pick - college win% .872)
-Stafford (1st round pick - college win% .794)
-Mustain (bust)
-Clausen (2nd round pick - college win% .432)
-Mallet (3rd round pick - college win% .724)
-Corp (bust)
-Brantley (bust)
-Taylor (6th round pick - college win% .833)
-Newton (1st round pick - college win% 1.000)
-Pryor (3rd round pick - college win% .861)
-Manuel (1st round pick - college win% .781)
-Crist (bust)
-Barkley (4th round pick - college win% .729)
-Boyd (6th round pick - college win% .800)
-Gilbert (6th round pick - college win% .487)
-Shepherd (bust b/c he became a WR at LSU)
-A. Murray (5th round pick - college win% .643)
-Sims (bust)
-Driskel (6th round pick - college win% .696)
-Miller (3rd round pick (WR); QB win% 2011-13: .765)
-Kiel (bust)
-Winston (1st round pick - college win% .964)
-Brown (bust)
-Hackenburg (2nd round pick - college win% .552)
-Allen (Bust)
-Rosen (1st round pick - college win% .531)
-Barnett (bust)
-K. Murray (1st pick - college win% .823)
-Patterson (bust)
-Eason (4th round pick - college win% .653)
-Mills (3rd round pick - college win% .444)
-Johnson (bust)
-Tagovailoa (1st round pick - college win% .917)
-Lawrence (1st round pick - college win% .944)
-Fields (1st round pick - college win% .909)
-Daniels (bust)
-Rattler (TBD - college win% .658 {so far})
-Nix (TBD - college win% .690 {so far})
-Uiagalelei (TBD - college win% .794 {so far})
-Young (1st round pick - college win% .852)

These are all the draft eligible 5* QBs from 2005-2020. This doesn’t include 5* alums like Marcus Vick, Vince Young, Jason Campbell, Casey Clausen etc. from years’ past.

The class of 2021 - 23 feature Ewers, McCarthy, Williams, McCord, however I will say the class of 2022 5* QBs all look to be bust, & the class of 2023 have limited to 0 playing time, so both are TBD (but seriously, that class of ‘22 looks awful)

What’s the point? Are there 5* bust? Sure, no doubt about; & even though this is not an exact science, it does tell a tale:

Since 2005:
-Out of the 42 composite 5* QBs, 2/3 had successful careers, while 1/3 were complete bust.

-Out of the 19 Nat’l Championship programs during this period, 7 were led by 5* QBs. (This is not including chips won by 4* QBs)

3* QBs are underrated often, but there’s an exponentially vast amount of them compared to blue chip QBs, particularly of the 5* variety. I would venture to say for every success story of a 3* we hear, there’s about 25+ failures. In other words, ur evals need to be completely on point w/ a 3*, & history shows that teams who stack blue chip QBs tend to fare much better.

Attempting to reason that it’s better to go after a non blue chip QB over a 5* QB is purely fanatical copium.

 

[Bpayne32]

Yes, it is easier to land a Portal QB than a top-ranked QB. There is plenty of supply and they have film to evaluate good supply is the issue and it’s getting worst teams plenty of QBs that didn’t enter last season because their teams paid up to keep them

 

[Bpayne32]

Yes, it is easier to land a Portal QB than a top-ranked QB. There is plenty of supply and they have film to evaluate.

Good supply is the issue plenty of teams paid up to keep their guys last year

 

[cway313]

Let’s look at this to see if this is accurate.

Composite 5* QBs since 2005:
-Perrilloux (Bust)
-Sanchez (1st round pick - college win% .875)
-Tebow (1st round pick - college win% .872)
-Stafford (1st round pick - college win% .794)
-Mustain (bust)
-Clausen (2nd round pick - college win% .432)
-Mallet (3rd round pick - college win% .724)
-Corp (bust)
-Brantley (bust)
-Taylor (6th round pick - college win% .833)
-Newton (1st round pick - college win% 1.000)
-Pryor (3rd round pick - college win% .861)
-Manuel (1st round pick - college win% .781)
-Crist (bust)
-Barkley (4th round pick - college win% .729)
-Boyd (6th round pick - college win% .800)
-Gilbert (6th round pick - college win% .487)
-Shepherd (bust b/c he became a WR at LSU)
-A. Murray (5th round pick - college win% .643)
-Sims (bust)
-Driskel (6th round pick - college win% .696)
-Miller (3rd round pick (WR); QB win% 2011-13: .765)
-Kiel (bust)
-Winston (1st round pick - college win% .964)
-Brown (bust)
-Hackenburg (2nd round pick - college win% .552)
-Allen (Bust)
-Rosen (1st round pick - college win% .531)
-Barnett (bust)
-K. Murray (1st pick - college win% .823)
-Patterson (bust)
-Eason (4th round pick - college win% .653)
-Mills (3rd round pick - college win% .444)
-Johnson (bust)
-Tagovailoa (1st round pick - college win% .917)
-Lawrence (1st round pick - college win% .944)
-Fields (1st round pick - college win% .909)
-Daniels (bust)
-Rattler (TBD - college win% .658 {so far})
-Nix (TBD - college win% .690 {so far})
-Uiagalelei (TBD - college win% .794 {so far})
-Young (1st round pick - college win% .852)

These are all the draft eligible 5* QBs from 2005-2020. This doesn’t include 5* alums like Marcus Vick, Vince Young, Jason Campbell, Casey Clausen etc. from years’ past.

The class of 2021 - 23 feature Ewers, McCarthy, Williams, McCord, however I will say the class of 2022 5* QBs all look to be bust, & the class of 2023 have limited to 0 playing time, so both are TBD (but seriously, that class of ‘22 looks awful)

What’s the point? Are there 5* bust? Sure, no doubt about; & even though this is not an exact science, it does tell a tale:

Since 2005:
-Out of the 42 composite 5* QBs, 2/3 had successful careers, while 1/3 were complete bust.

-Out of the 19 Nat’l Championship programs during this period, 7 were led by 5* QBs. (This is not including chips won by 4* QBs)

3* QBs are underrated often, but there’s an exponentially vast amount of them compared to blue chip QBs, particularly of the 5* variety. I would venture to say for every success story of a 3* we hear, there’s about 25+ failures. In other words, ur evals need to be completely on point w/ a 3*, & history shows that teams who stack blue chip QBs tend to fare much better.

Attempting to reason that it’s better to go after a non blue chip QB over a 5* QB is purely fanatical copium.

Why they playing with us Rell?

 

[Ghandi]

Are you going to pretend its easier to recruit a portal QB? That would be highly disingenuous if anything that is harder. Even Nick Saban a 6* National champion had to settle for Tyler Buchner. Let's not be gullible here.

That happened to him because they already had a deal with Van Dimes.

They had to scramble to get someone to compete with Milroe.

If you’re saying Miami can’t afford it, that’s a different story.

 

[DMoney]

Let’s look at this to see if this is accurate.

Composite 5* QBs since 2005:
-Perrilloux (Bust)
-Sanchez (1st round pick - college win% .875)
-Tebow (1st round pick - college win% .872)
-Stafford (1st round pick - college win% .794)
-Mustain (bust)
-Clausen (2nd round pick - college win% .432)
-Mallet (3rd round pick - college win% .724)
-Corp (bust)
-Brantley (bust)
-Taylor (6th round pick - college win% .833)
-Newton (1st round pick - college win% 1.000)
-Pryor (3rd round pick - college win% .861)
-Manuel (1st round pick - college win% .781)
-Crist (bust)
-Barkley (4th round pick - college win% .729)
-Boyd (6th round pick - college win% .800)
-Gilbert (6th round pick - college win% .487)
-Shepherd (bust b/c he became a WR at LSU)
-A. Murray (5th round pick - college win% .643)
-Sims (bust)
-Driskel (6th round pick - college win% .696)
-Miller (3rd round pick (WR); QB win% 2011-13: .765)
-Kiel (bust)
-Winston (1st round pick - college win% .964)
-Brown (bust)
-Hackenburg (2nd round pick - college win% .552)
-Allen (Bust)
-Rosen (1st round pick - college win% .531)
-Barnett (bust)
-K. Murray (1st pick - college win% .823)
-Patterson (bust)
-Eason (4th round pick - college win% .653)
-Mills (3rd round pick - college win% .444)
-Johnson (bust)
-Tagovailoa (1st round pick - college win% .917)
-Lawrence (1st round pick - college win% .944)
-Fields (1st round pick - college win% .909)
-Daniels (bust)
-Rattler (TBD - college win% .658 {so far})
-Nix (TBD - college win% .690 {so far})
-Uiagalelei (TBD - college win% .794 {so far})
-Young (1st round pick - college win% .852)

These are all the draft eligible 5* QBs from 2005-2020. This doesn’t include 5* alums like Marcus Vick, Vince Young, Jason Campbell, Casey Clausen etc. from years’ past.

The class of 2021 - 23 feature Ewers, McCarthy, Williams, McCord, however I will say the class of 2022 5* QBs all look to be bust, & the class of 2023 have limited to 0 playing time, so both are TBD (but seriously, that class of ‘22 looks awful)

What’s the point? Are there 5* bust? Sure, no doubt about; & even though this is not an exact science, it does tell a tale:

Since 2005:
-Out of the 42 composite 5* QBs, 2/3 had successful careers, while 1/3 were complete bust.

-Out of the 19 Nat’l Championship programs during this period, 7 were led by 5* QBs. (This is not including chips won by 4* QBs)

3* QBs are underrated often, but there’s an exponentially vast amount of them compared to blue chip QBs, particularly of the 5* variety. I would venture to say for every success story of a 3* we hear, there’s about 25+ failures. In other words, ur evals need to be completely on point w/ a 3*, & history shows that teams who stack blue chip QBs tend to fare much better.

Attempting to reason that it’s better to go after a non blue chip QB over a 5* QB is purely fanatical copium.

As a rule, signing five stars is better than three stars at every position. That includes quarterback. Anybody who says otherwise is lying.

I’m talking about budget allocation in an NIL world. Most of the best quarterbacks in college are transfers. And most of the best quarterbacks in the pros are underrated athletes who developed in college. The win percentage stats are deceptive- the five stars generally go to programs that are already winning. The best QBs right now are overwhelmingly transfers and/or underrated athletes.

Whether Judd is one of those guys is a whole another topic. I see the vision, but there are too many red flags for me to buy in. The progress is positive. He needs to be paired with a transfer, and I think he will be.

 

[Ghandi]

It's easy to pick the guys that work but look at UK getting Leary or Wisconsin getting Mordecai or Auburn getting Thorne. Many other examples I could use. Even the portal guys flame out when given a chance to take a step up. Basically kicking the can down the road and hoping we get it right.

So you’d rather spend the $ on a high school kid?

I don’t get what you’re trying to say.

 

[cway313]

That happened to him because they already had a deal with Van Dimes.

They had to scramble to get someone to compete with Milroe.

If you’re saying Miami can’t afford it, that’s a different story.

The portal is not the safety net thats being portrayed here. Im saying the portal is not a better guarantee than HS recruiting. I have 0 idea what Miami can afford. I know what has been said about Miami's willingness to spend. Portal QB market is more volatile than HS and even still a good number of those fail.