It's not a strawman, it's the root of the argument.
I said if we're going to spend big on QBs, we should get proven Portal kids. They're safer bets and other positions are harder to find in the Portal. Somebody disagreed and said that Top 100 QBs are a "good investment."
@Cryptical Envelopment nuked that argument pretty quick, noting that 70% of those kids transfer and are often beaten out by lower-ranked players. I also noted that teams win championships without elite QB recruits (including the past four years) but
never win without elite DLs.
As far as your list, it includes Mac Jones (a three star), Tua (who played two quarters) and Cam Newton (a transfer). But the rest of the post reveals another issue. You said:
Are you suggesting that Mahomes and Herbert weren't better players in college than, say, an AJ McCarron? They were a million times better. McCarron just played on a better team. QB is unique in that the truly elite players are almost all non-elite recruits. You don't see that at DL with guys like Jeffrey Simmons, Dexter Lawrence, Chris Jones, Myles Garrett and the Bosas (all five stars).
That doesn't mean a blue-chip QB isn't more likely to succeed than a non-blue chip-- of course they are. That's true at every position. But blue-chip QBs bust more than other positions, and the truly elite guys are usually the product of evals. That tells me the smart play is to pay big money for the proven commodities and chase cheap upside in high school kids.