If not for 8-4 coming through with an all time class last year, Bama had one of their best classes ever on paper. They are still a monster. Saban is using 8-4 as motivation for his boosters. They didn’t even come close to remotely struggling last cycle. 8-4 did take a decent amount of thier top targets though.
You are right and Bama will do well this year despite what UM doing well on the trail.
However, there's going to be a slow depletion of talent as not only Miami, but AtM, ND, Texas, OU, Oregon, and USC get their fair share of top talent. Other schools like Michigan, Michigan St will get a few top tier prospects. We see Louisville this cycle get a couple of top tier players. Bama, UGA, Ohio State, and Clemson will all get less of the top recruits.
For us to eat, they have to starve. Just look at the top 300 from ESPN, 247Sports, or other recruiting service. The majority of the top 300 were going to Alabama, UGA, Ohio St, and Clemson. Not only that, but they were getting the lion's share of top 50 and top 100 players (could be calculated). Moving forward, that top 300 is going to be split between 11 teams instead of 4 plus some other schools will pick up a few.
There's going to be parity in college football recruiting. We're just starting to see it. It will take 3-5 years to get there, but it started last cycle.