It's as embarrassing as UCF saying they were national champions.
I think with Norvell they will be a consistent 8-9 win team, with the occasional double-digit win season when the portal additions go well. For this year, I think they'll take a decent step back.
People underestimate how much Travis elevated that offense, and how many issues he covered up. They also lost like 90% of 2023's offensive production. They brought in talented guys in the portal, but other than Roydell Williams, none of them really broke the rotation at prior schools. DJU is also a major step down at QB. To give some perspective here, 2021 freshman TVD had better stats that DJU has ever had as a CFB QB. In fact, even last year TVD beat him out in a bunch of statistical categories. The only reason the FSU people went for him is because they did not have the $$$ to compete for the higher level transfer QBs.
Also, it's just my view that you cannot be a consistently elite program without elite HS recruiting. They've underwhelmed in HS recruiting every year under Norvell, and his reliance on the portal is going to become an even bigger negative recruiting talking point for the HS guys.
I agree 100%. The FSU Podcasters and fans think Norvell is a QB whisperer. They've actually said it multiple times to the point it gets recycled around the internet.
I always post, "If Norvell is such a great developer of QBs, Show me 1 QB in his 4-year FSU tenure that he recruited and developed." The answer is NONE.
The truth is Norvell has very few players he can point to that he recruited from high school and developed into anything. We saw the guys he recruited get smashed in the Orange Bowl 63-3. The guys from the transfer portal sat out.
This is the last year of the Covid extended players, which means there will be a lot less veteran talent available in the portal.
The portal is a blessing and a curse. When you rely heavily on the portal for production, you reduce the number of high school recruits in your classes. You can't get out of the cycle of heavy portal acquisitions. I saw a statistic about CFP teams and champions. I can't remember the numbers, but all the teams had a low portal acquisition rate.
The bottom line is that winning games from heavy portal production is not sustainable.
Even Norvell's best high school recruiting class of 2024 looks like a "Manny" class. He has some good skilled players that prop up his overall team recruiting ranking, but when you look closely, their trenches are weak.
Ironically, Ohio State is in the same boat. OSU had 1 4-star OL and 2 4-star DL in their 2024 class. We took Scott, Lightfoot, and even transfer Marley Cook from them. It should be no surprise OSU has been losing to Michigan despite superior offensive talent. They are getting whipped in the trenches.
The same goes for FSU. Weak trench recruiting relying on a majority portal transfers as starters. This year, Norvell has a bunch of unproven portal transfers. It could be boom or bust. Not all of his unproven transfers are going to boom. FSU's best case is 9-3. They could go 7-5. I wouldn't be surprised if GT upsets them in game 1 this year. It may take a while for a bunch of inexperienced players to gel. The truth is the FSU trenches won't be better than GT's or most of the ACC.
I think we boom them at Hard Rock this year. I really think our offense is going to average 42-45 points per game behind Cam Ward. That's going to force FSU to throw the ball more than they want to. Our DL is going eat against their OL.