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Tears Nole Tears (“Offcial”)

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Watching some of their film this weekend from this past season, I was surprised by a few things.
  • The three guys their offense is going to run through this year are Jordan Travis, Johnny Wilson, and Trey Benson.

    • Wilson is a nightmare matchup for any DB. He accounted for a good 30% of their passing offense last year (it was a much more balanced passing attack than I thought it would be at a glance), and he's got a habit of coming down with a disproportionate amount of 50/50 balls.

    • Benson is a solid RB. If he's got an open lane he's probably gone. He's shifty and quick. He also does not fumble. He had one fumble in 2022, which FSU ended up recovering.

    • Travis has taken major leaps in his development in his time at FSU. He's a 180 difference from who he was even two seasons ago. You have to respect his abilities on the ground and in the air. Nevertheless, he does get tunnel visioned quite often and a good 40% of his passes are bang bang plays that could be INT's. It's really incredible that he only threw 5 INT's last season.

  • If any one of the three guys I listed above goes down, they're gonna take a hit. If two of them go down, it's a disaster. All three, and they're a 7 win team at best. That's how important these three guys are to their offense.

  • Their OL was solid, coming in a No. 38 in the country with 20 sacks allowed, and they're returning one of the most experienced lines in the country. This is going to be a good unit.

  • I was genuinely surprised by how many times their rush D got consistently cooked. While they had a Top 5 Passing Defense, they had a worse Rushing D than we did. They'll tell you that was because Jared Verse and Fabien Lovett were injured, but it was more than just that.

  • Their kicker is a liability that went 12/20 in 2022. They did bring in a D2 transfer though with better production.

  • Roster wise, they're top heavy. They've got a lot of talent and returning production in their starters, but there's a lot of ??? behind that.

  • They're a mentally stronger team then they were two years ago. They didn't throw in the towel at any point.
The thing about this FSU team, is that they remind me a lot of our 2018 team going into the season. Team came off a double-digit win season that wasn't expected, had a QB come out of nowhere and over perform, got a lot of lucky bounces and calls, didn't get the injury bug (at least seriously; our 2017 team also suffered some devastating injuries late in the season), and they open up with LSU. The biggest difference was that we won games we weren't supposed to, and they lost to everyone they were supposed to.

Like our 2017 team they had a TON of lucky bounces and breaks. The most stark example was against Oklahoma, where OU scored a TD to go up 21-3 in the second, only to have the play be called back on a holding call (it was a 50/50 call imho). OU missed the field goal, and FSU marched down the field to narrow OU's to 14-10. Luck was a big part of last year's team for them.

Assuming that they don't get the injury bug, they're a 9 to 10 win team. They're gonna be a problem for anyone they play. The key here is Travis though. If he goes down or regresses, that changes their whole season. Also, the LSU game will set the course of their season. If they win, they're the favorite to win the ACC and get a playoff spot. Lose a close one and they're still a darkhorse and favorite to win the conference. Get blown out, and there's gonna be a lot of question marks and potential for collapse (particularly with all the hype surrounding them going into this year).
 
Norvell whiff?

IMG_4301.jpeg
 
FL Cane said:
Watching some of their film this weekend from this past season, I was surprised by a few things.
  • The three guys their offense is going to run through this year are Jordan Travis, Johnny Wilson, and Trey Benson.
    • Wilson is a nightmare matchup for any DB. He accounted for a good 30% of their passing offense last year (it was a much more balanced passing attack than I thought it would be at a glance), and he's got a habit of coming down with a disproportionate amount of 50/50 balls.

    • Benson is a solid RB. If he's got an open lane he's probably gone. He's shifty and quick. He also does not fumble. He had one fumble in 2022, which FSU ended up recovering.

    • Travis has taken major leaps in his development in his time at FSU. He's a 180 difference from who he was even two seasons ago. You have to respect his abilities on the ground and in the air. Nevertheless, he does get tunnel visioned quite often and a good 40% of his passes are bang bang plays that could be INT's. It's really incredible that he only threw 5 INT's last season.
  • If any one of the three guys I listed above goes down, they're gonna take a hit. If two of them go down, it's a disaster. All three, and they're a 7 win team at best. That's how important these three guys are to their offense.

  • Their OL was solid, coming in a No. 38 in the country with 20 sacks allowed, and they're returning one of the most experienced lines in the country. This is going to be a good unit.

  • I was genuinely surprised by how many times their rush D got consistently cooked. While they had a Top 5 Passing Defense, they had a worse Rushing D than we did. They'll tell you that was because Jared Verse and Fabien Lovett were injured, but it was more than just that.

  • Their kicker is a liability that went 12/20 in 2022. They did bring in a D2 transfer though with better production.

  • Roster wise, they're top heavy. They've got a lot of talent and returning production in their starters, but there's a lot of ??? behind that.

  • They're a mentally stronger team then they were two years ago. They didn't throw in the towel at any point.
The thing about this FSU team, is that they remind me a lot of our 2018 team going into the season. Team came off a double-digit win season that wasn't expected, had a QB come out of nowhere and over perform, got a lot of lucky bounces and calls, didn't get the injury bug (at least seriously; our 2017 team also suffered some devastating injuries late in the season), and they open up with LSU. The biggest difference was that we won games we weren't supposed to, and they lost to everyone they were supposed to.

Like our 2017 team they had a TON of lucky bounces and breaks. The most stark example was against Oklahoma, where OU scored a TD to go up 21-3 in the second, only to have the play be called back on a holding call (it was a 50/50 call imho). OU missed the field goal, and FSU marched down the field to narrow OU's to 14-10. Luck was a big part of last year's team for them.

Assuming that they don't get the injury bug, they're a 9 to 10 win team. They're gonna be a problem for anyone they play. The key here is Travis though. If he goes down or regresses, that changes their whole season. Also, the LSU game will set the course of their season. If they win, they're the favorite to win the ACC and get a playoff spot. Lose a close one and they're still a darkhorse and favorite to win the conference. Get blown out, and there's gonna be a lot of question marks and potential for collapse (particularly with all the hype surrounding them going into this year).
Click to expand...
I can see them still getting 9 W's and LSU beating their asses week 1. FSU was insanely lucky to catch Brian Kelly in week one and Maason Smith getting hurt early. Harold Perkins is not gonna be denied and will make Travis miserable all game.
 
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FL Cane said:
Watching some of their film this weekend from this past season, I was surprised by a few things.
  • The three guys their offense is going to run through this year are Jordan Travis, Johnny Wilson, and Trey Benson.
    • Wilson is a nightmare matchup for any DB. He accounted for a good 30% of their passing offense last year (it was a much more balanced passing attack than I thought it would be at a glance), and he's got a habit of coming down with a disproportionate amount of 50/50 balls.

    • Benson is a solid RB. If he's got an open lane he's probably gone. He's shifty and quick. He also does not fumble. He had one fumble in 2022, which FSU ended up recovering.

    • Travis has taken major leaps in his development in his time at FSU. He's a 180 difference from who he was even two seasons ago. You have to respect his abilities on the ground and in the air. Nevertheless, he does get tunnel visioned quite often and a good 40% of his passes are bang bang plays that could be INT's. It's really incredible that he only threw 5 INT's last season.
  • If any one of the three guys I listed above goes down, they're gonna take a hit. If two of them go down, it's a disaster. All three, and they're a 7 win team at best. That's how important these three guys are to their offense.

  • Their OL was solid, coming in a No. 38 in the country with 20 sacks allowed, and they're returning one of the most experienced lines in the country. This is going to be a good unit.

  • I was genuinely surprised by how many times their rush D got consistently cooked. While they had a Top 5 Passing Defense, they had a worse Rushing D than we did. They'll tell you that was because Jared Verse and Fabien Lovett were injured, but it was more than just that.

  • Their kicker is a liability that went 12/20 in 2022. They did bring in a D2 transfer though with better production.

  • Roster wise, they're top heavy. They've got a lot of talent and returning production in their starters, but there's a lot of ??? behind that.

  • They're a mentally stronger team then they were two years ago. They didn't throw in the towel at any point.
The thing about this FSU team, is that they remind me a lot of our 2018 team going into the season. Team came off a double-digit win season that wasn't expected, had a QB come out of nowhere and over perform, got a lot of lucky bounces and calls, didn't get the injury bug (at least seriously; our 2017 team also suffered some devastating injuries late in the season), and they open up with LSU. The biggest difference was that we won games we weren't supposed to, and they lost to everyone they were supposed to.

Like our 2017 team they had a TON of lucky bounces and breaks. The most stark example was against Oklahoma, where OU scored a TD to go up 21-3 in the second, only to have the play be called back on a holding call (it was a 50/50 call imho). OU missed the field goal, and FSU marched down the field to narrow OU's to 14-10. Luck was a big part of last year's team for them.

Assuming that they don't get the injury bug, they're a 9 to 10 win team. They're gonna be a problem for anyone they play. The key here is Travis though. If he goes down or regresses, that changes their whole season. Also, the LSU game will set the course of their season. If they win, they're the favorite to win the ACC and get a playoff spot. Lose a close one and they're still a darkhorse and favorite to win the conference. Get blown out, and there's gonna be a lot of question marks and potential for collapse (particularly with all the hype surrounding them going into this year).
Click to expand...
Have to add Coleman and the TE they have now. I think the TE will be ok Coleman is an athlete though
 
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it’s understandable for us to have whiffed on 2 guys coming off a 5-7 season with no life on offense and changing coordinators.

For them… coming off a 10 win season they should be landing recruits left and right but they’re still struggling. In the portal they do fine but that can only last so long… could you imagine if we were coming off a 10 win season and struggling?
 
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