If they appear as likely to go 5-7 as they are to go 8-4, then 6.5 is a pretty good line.
Duquesne is a win
Syracuse is awful
GT is awful
Louisiana *should* be a win
Assuming they win those 4, and yes I know they're not very good themselves and there isn't a 100% chance they win these 4 games, but *IF*, then they need to go 3-5 in their other 8 games. Certain? Of course not. Likely? Prob a coin flip. But again, that's why the line is 6.5. I think they most likely win 6 or 7 games.
Clemson, Miami, UF, NC State, Louisville, Wake, LSU, BC (who should probably be included more in the group with GT and Cuse than Clemson etc.)
Would it shock me if they went 2-6 in those 8? **** no. Would it shock me if they went 3-5? No on that either.
To me, the juice is the kicker. It's -135 to take the over 6.5....I think they have a decent shot to go 7-5, but not nearly enough to lay 135 on it. If they flipped the juice and made over +115 and under -135, I'd be more interested in an over bet. But I won't be betting it as is.