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If NC State is one of the worst teams in the conference, the ACC is far and away the best conference in the country.

I think the conference play sample size is way too small to make any definitive judgements… but NCSU’s non conference results (only loss a close L to Kansas) makes them a solid team.

I don’t think losing to us makes NCSU a bad team, and Pitt is streaky and dangerous.
 
AmherstCane said:
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If NC State is one of the worst teams in the conference, the ACC is far and away the best conference in the country.

I think the conference play sample size is way too small to make any definitive judgements… but NCSU’s non conference results (only loss a close L to Kansas) makes them a solid team.

I don’t think losing to us makes NCSU a bad team, and Pitt is streaky and dangerous.
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Look, I realize that a few of the rarely-post morons on the board are going to band together because they can't hang in the conversation.

Right now...at this current time...NC State is one of the worst teams in the ACC standings. That's a fact. And the reason it is pointed out is because we have 5 games in a row that will not give us any traction. They are all mediocre teams. Might they play better in the second half of the season? Sure.

But, as per usual, the bad porsters on the board miss the point and can't see the big picture. Over the next few weeks, NC State has a very tough road. So, yeah, if NC State wins 3 in a row, then maybe by THAT time, a UM victory will look better. But, ACCURATELY, and FOR NOW, we are playing 5 teams in a row in the bottom of the ACC. And the voters will continue to NOT reward Miami for winning those games.

None of that should be controversial, except for the Lunardi Dorks who are going to get offended every time someone doesn't suck off a team that is playing below par.

But, sure, the voters are going to look at 120+ teams, and check out their various ratings, and only THEN will they cast their votes.

Yeah, that's not how they do it. They just look at the list of last week's Top 25, they move teams down a couple of spots for 1 loss, they move a couple of teams in from the "others receiving votes" if a 21-25 team falls out, and they send in their ballots.

For instance, here is what will happen after last night. Arkansas (9 AP, 7 Coaches), who just lost a 3-point road game to LSU, will be moved to a 10-15 spot. LSU, which only has one neutral-site tournament loss by 2 points, will potentially be ranked 21-25 or as one of the highest "others receiving votes", but certainly no higher, because they literally have NO VOTES before now. NONE. If anything, Kentucky will fall out of the Top 25 and LSU will be put into the bottom of the Top 25, because the SEC has to get its quota.

Thursday - Purdue won't lose.

Friday - UCLA won't lose to WSU, Wisconsin won't lose to Western Michigan, who cares what happens to UNC, and Miami needs to win at ND.

Saturday - UConn-Xavier will be fun, but even if UConn loses, they won't fall out of the Top 10 and Xavier won't crack the Top 10. UVa, Kentucky, Duke, Houston, Kansas, New Mexico, and Gonzaga won't lose. Almost all the fun is in the Big 12. If TCU loses (home), they drop to 21-25. If Arizona loses (road), they won't drop out of the Top 10, but Arizona State might sneak into 21-25. If Texas loses (road), they won't fall past 12. If Baylor loses (road), they won't fall past 20. If West Virginia (road) loses, they fall out of the Top 25, but K-State probably gets the Big 12 quota spot at 21-25.

Sunday - UCLA won't lose to Washington.



Soooooo....even if Miami beats ND...we move past Baylor if Baylor loses. We MAYBE move past Arkansas in AP, but not the Coaches.

Sorry. We've hit a point where there will not be big shifts for now. Last week, the biggest movements in the Top 20 were Miami up 8 in AP/up 6 in Coaches, and UVa down 7 in AP, down 6 in Coaches. Other than that, the largest move in the Top 20 was 3 positions.

We can check these predictions next week. The only thing that scares me that I wrote is UCLA having 2 games within about 48 hours. Barring major upsets, next week Miami will be in the 12-14 position for AP and the 14-16 position in Coaches.

But that's how the voters will vote. They will NOT completely re-analyze the Top 40 teams and factor in all the ratings stuff. Not happening.
 
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TheOriginalCane said:
Look, I realize that a few of the rarely-post morons on the board are going to band together because they can't hang in the conversation.

Right now...at this current time...NC State is one of the worst teams in the ACC standings. That's a fact. And the reason it is pointed out is because we have 5 games in a row that will not give us any traction. They are all mediocre teams. Might they play better in the second half of the season? Sure.

But, as per usual, the bad porsters on the board miss the point and can't see the big picture. Over the next few weeks, NC State has a very tough road. So, yeah, if NC State wins 3 in a row, then maybe by THAT time, a UM victory will look better. But, ACCURATELY, and FOR NOW, we are playing 5 teams in a row in the bottom of the ACC. And the voters will continue to NOT reward Miami for winning those games.

None of that should be controversial, except for the Lunardi Dorks who are going to get offended every time someone doesn't suck off a team that is playing below par.

But, sure, the voters are going to look at 120+ teams, and check out their various ratings, and only THEN will they cast their votes.

Yeah, that's not how they do it. They just look at the list of last week's Top 25, they move teams down a couple of spots for 1 loss, they move a couple of teams in from the "others receiving votes" if a 21-25 team falls out, and they send in their ballots.

For instance, here is what will happen after last night. Arkansas (9 AP, 7 Coaches), who just lost a 3-point road game to LSU, will be moved to a 10-15 spot. LSU, which only has one neutral-site tournament loss by 2 points, will potentially be ranked 21-25 or as one of the highest "others receiving votes", but certainly no higher, because they literally have NO VOTES before now. NONE. If anything, Kentucky will fall out of the Top 25 and LSU will be put into the bottom of the Top 25, because the SEC has to get its quota.

Thursday - Purdue won't lose.

Friday - UCLA won't lose to WSU, Wisconsin won't lose to Western Michigan, who cares what happens to UNC, and Miami needs to win at ND.

Saturday - UConn-Xavier will be fun, but even if UConn loses, they won't fall out of the Top 10 and Xavier won't crack the Top 10. UVa, Kentucky, Duke, Houston, Kansas, New Mexico, and Gonzaga won't lose. Almost all the fun is in the Big 12. If TCU loses (home), they drop to 21-25. If Arizona loses (road), they won't drop out of the Top 10, but Arizona State might sneak into 21-25. If Texas loses (road), they won't fall past 12. If Baylor loses (road), they won't fall past 20. If West Virginia (road) loses, they fall out of the Top 25, but K-State probably gets the Big 12 quota spot at 21-25.

Sunday - UCLA won't lose to Washington.



Soooooo....even if Miami beats ND...we move past Baylor if Baylor loses. We MAYBE move past Arkansas in AP, but not the Coaches.

Sorry. We've hit a point where there will not be big shifts for now. Last week, the biggest movements in the Top 20 were Miami up 8 in AP/up 6 in Coaches, and UVa down 7 in AP, down 6 in Coaches. Other than that, the largest move in the Top 20 was 3 positions.

We can check these predictions next week. The only thing that scares me that I wrote is UCLA having 2 games within about 48 hours. Barring major upsets, next week Miami will be in the 12-14 position for AP and the 14-16 position in Coaches.

But that's how the voters will vote. They will NOT completely re-analyze the Top 40 teams and factor in all the ratings stuff. Not happening.
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I’m with you that the level of disrespect for UM basketball is pretty stunning - and I think driven largely by efficiency ratings like Kenpom and Net that have a giant gaping hole in the algorithm for teams like Miami that win games and beat good teams but don’t RUTS for a whole host of reasons.

I also agree that beating NCSU won’t get us a whole lot of extra credit (unless we smoke them and bump our efficiency ratings)… but I DO think that NCSU is a good team who seems to me more likely to finish in the top 6 of the conference than the bottom 6.

Some of the posters here have Stockholm syndrome and try to rationalize the some of the “mainstream” arguments/metrics that hold our program back.

That’s why I post so much about kenpom. So many people just accept kenpom as a go-to ranking system when - because of a giant hole in the algorithm and a really f-ing arrogant metric called “luck” - it has no business being used to inform top 25 rankings or NCAA selection or seeding.

And - by the way - it’s not just Miami that kenpom and other efficiency metric ranking systems are missing… it’s a bunch of good teams with great records against solid or decent competition, like UNM, Missouri, Charleston, LSU, KSU, etc.
 
AmherstCane said:
I’m with you that the level of disrespect for UM basketball is pretty stunning - and I think driven largely by efficiency ratings like Kenpom and Net that have a giant gaping hole in the algorithm for teams like Miami that win games and beat good teams but don’t RUTS for a whole host of reasons.

I also agree that beating NCSU won’t get us a whole lot of extra credit (unless we smoke them and bump our efficiency ratings)… but I DO think that NCSU is a good team who seems to me more likely to finish in the top 6 of the conference than the bottom 6.

Some of the posters here have Stockholm syndrome and try to rationalize the some of the “mainstream” arguments/metrics that hold our program back.

That’s why I post so much about kenpom. So many people just accept kenpom as a go-to ranking system when - because of a giant hole in the algorithm and a really f-ing arrogant metric called “luck” - it has no business being used to inform top 25 rankings or NCAA selection or seeding.

And - by the way - it’s not just Miami that kenpom and other efficiency metric ranking systems are missing… it’s a bunch of good teams with great records against solid or decent competition, like UNM, Missouri, Charleston, LSU, KSU, etc.
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In no particular order...

I completely agree with you on the Kenpom stuff, particularly when I was trying to figure out "how good" that LSU and K-State were. In particular, LSU only has one 2-point loss (to K-State!) AND ZERO VOTES IN EITHER POLL. Very surprising.

As for my comments on NC State, in this thread and others, it's just sad that so-called Miami fans have to get ****y and stand up for OTHER SCHOOLS (while continuing to tell us that Miami will SOMEDAY be rewarded with a higher ranking when we win 20 straight games).

I am not sitting here with some extravagant analysis of the philosophical overall strength of NC State as a program. I am saying that NC State is near the bottom of the ACC standings, and now that ALL THE REST OF OUR GAMES ARE AGAINST ACC OPPONENTS, it seems a logical time to start analyzing our games in light of the ACC standings.

Which is the point. Do I (at this early stage) know if NC State's OOC wins are illusory and the ACC record more definitive? No, I do not. But I do know that the AP writers and the coaches who vote do not do some elaborate "from-scratch" re-ranking each week.

They look at the prior ranking, the outcomes, and perhaps a bit of a glance towards the opponents. That's about it.

And unless NC State rocks the next 3 games against Clemson (tied for first in the ACC), Duke (ranked), and VaTech, we will be playing a team that is potentially 1-5 in the ACC.

So, in conclusion...I do not believe the next FIVE games will "prove much" or "show us much", those are pretty much five games we need to win. The four games AFTER THAT (and actually the SIX games after, including a road game at Clemson and the second Duke game) will really be what cements our standing in the ACC and the polls.

And, yes, Kenpom and all the other statistical measures will continue to grind in the meantime.

For the record, our final TWELVE games in the ACC will be absolutely brutal, with only Louisville and Wake being easier home games. Unless, say, someone like Clemson surprises me by going on a 10 game losing streak.
 
Anybody watched ND this year? Last year Atkinson had the game of his life so that was disappointing.

Brey is a good coach so I’m sure they are solid. Any insight into the matchups?
 
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TheOriginalCane said:
Look, I realize that a few of the rarely-post morons on the board are going to band together because they can't hang in the conversation.

Right now...at this current time...NC State is one of the worst teams in the ACC standings. That's a fact. And the reason it is pointed out is because we have 5 games in a row that will not give us any traction. They are all mediocre teams. Might they play better in the second half of the season? Sure.

But, as per usual, the bad porsters on the board miss the point and can't see the big picture. Over the next few weeks, NC State has a very tough road. So, yeah, if NC State wins 3 in a row, then maybe by THAT time, a UM victory will look better. But, ACCURATELY, and FOR NOW, we are playing 5 teams in a row in the bottom of the ACC. And the voters will continue to NOT reward Miami for winning those games.

None of that should be controversial, except for the Lunardi Dorks who are going to get offended every time someone doesn't suck off a team that is playing below par.

But, sure, the voters are going to look at 120+ teams, and check out their various ratings, and only THEN will they cast their votes.

Yeah, that's not how they do it. They just look at the list of last week's Top 25, they move teams down a couple of spots for 1 loss, they move a couple of teams in from the "others receiving votes" if a 21-25 team falls out, and they send in their ballots.

For instance, here is what will happen after last night. Arkansas (9 AP, 7 Coaches), who just lost a 3-point road game to LSU, will be moved to a 10-15 spot. LSU, which only has one neutral-site tournament loss by 2 points, will potentially be ranked 21-25 or as one of the highest "others receiving votes", but certainly no higher, because they literally have NO VOTES before now. NONE. If anything, Kentucky will fall out of the Top 25 and LSU will be put into the bottom of the Top 25, because the SEC has to get its quota.

Thursday - Purdue won't lose.

Friday - UCLA won't lose to WSU, Wisconsin won't lose to Western Michigan, who cares what happens to UNC, and Miami needs to win at ND.

Saturday - UConn-Xavier will be fun, but even if UConn loses, they won't fall out of the Top 10 and Xavier won't crack the Top 10. UVa, Kentucky, Duke, Houston, Kansas, New Mexico, and Gonzaga won't lose. Almost all the fun is in the Big 12. If TCU loses (home), they drop to 21-25. If Arizona loses (road), they won't drop out of the Top 10, but Arizona State might sneak into 21-25. If Texas loses (road), they won't fall past 12. If Baylor loses (road), they won't fall past 20. If West Virginia (road) loses, they fall out of the Top 25, but K-State probably gets the Big 12 quota spot at 21-25.

Sunday - UCLA won't lose to Washington.



Soooooo....even if Miami beats ND...we move past Baylor if Baylor loses. We MAYBE move past Arkansas in AP, but not the Coaches.

Sorry. We've hit a point where there will not be big shifts for now. Last week, the biggest movements in the Top 20 were Miami up 8 in AP/up 6 in Coaches, and UVa down 7 in AP, down 6 in Coaches. Other than that, the largest move in the Top 20 was 3 positions.

We can check these predictions next week. The only thing that scares me that I wrote is UCLA having 2 games within about 48 hours. Barring major upsets, next week Miami will be in the 12-14 position for AP and the 14-16 position in Coaches.

But that's how the voters will vote. They will NOT completely re-analyze the Top 40 teams and factor in all the ratings stuff. Not happening.
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1. Purdue did not lose on Thursday.

2. UCLA and Wisconsin did not lose on Friday. As I said, the outcome on UNC-Pitt was meaningless, as Pitt will likely replace UNC at #25. Miami won on Friday.

3. As I said, UConn-Xavier was fun, so now let's see if UConn stays in the Top 10 and Xavier stays out of the Top 10.

4. UVa, Kentucky, Duke, Houston, Kansas, New Mexico, and Gonzaga did not lose, as I predicted.

5. TCU won, Arizona won, and Texas won. The only Big 12 losses were Baylor (I predicted they won't fall past 20) and West Virginia (who will fall out of the Top 25, likely to be replaced by K-State).

6. UCLA did not lose on Sunday.

Pretty solid job of predicting the week's Top 25 outcomes, huh?

Miami moves up one spot in AP/Coaches (due to Baylor), as UConn will not fall out of the Top 10. He!!, maybe Miami doesn't move at all, depending on where Xavier gets moved to.
 
Literally, my ONLY mistake was missing the Arkansas loss that happened before I posted.
 
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Still being ranked two full spots lower than UVa by every single voter (on average), as we are 112 points behind UVa.


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So let's try this again.

Miami only plays ONCE this week. We MUST WIN this game. GaTech is at the bottom of the ACC standings (no matter how "good" or "bad" some porsters think GaTech is).

Monday (today) - Purdue will win

Tuesday - Huge day. Alabama (ranked higher), Wisconsin (ranked around us), and New Mexico (ranked lower) all will win. There are 4 teams ranked ahead of us that have challenging matchups:
-----Kansas at Texas Tech (10-3)...however, I doubt we jump Kansas if they lose
-----Texas hosts K-State (12-1)...Texas might also stay ahead of us with a loss and K-State would get ranked 21-25
-----Tennessee hosts MS-State (11-2)...same as above for TX-KSt game
-----UVa at Pitt (10-4)...this is the team we would definitely vault if they lose to Pitt

Wednesday - Crazy day. Charleston will win its game, but there are SIX ranked teams on the road (two against other ranked teams):
-----UConn at Providence (12-3)...while I don't think UConn drops below us with a loss, it would be interesting due to a UM "common opponent"
-----Duke at NC State (11-4)...interesting because Duke MIGHT POSSIBLY benefit from a big win over a UM "common opponent" (NC St), could jump UM
-----Auburn plays at UGa and Iowa State plays at Oklahoma, but neither team would jump UM with a win
-----#20 Mizzou plays at #13 Arkansas, and #17 TCU plays at #19 Baylor, but the only team that COULD jump us with a win is Arkansas

Thursday - Slow day.
-----Houston, Indiana, Arizona, and Gonzaga all win, plus UCLA likely wins a home game over USC (11-4)...but if UCLA loses, Miami jumps a spot
-----#1 Purdue plays at #24 Ohio Taint. No way Miami jumps Purdue with a loss, and no way Ohio Taint jumps Miami with a win

Friday - No day.

Saturday - Busy day. Nearly everyone plays (NOT MIAMI and NOT the Top 2), with two games between ranked pairs:
-----Kansas, Uconn, Arizona, Texas, Alabama, Tennessee, and UVa should all win their games
-----Gonzaga has a challenging away game at Santa Clara (13-4), and would drop below us with a loss
-----#13 Arkansas at #22 Auburn and #17 TCU home against #25 Iowa State...Arkansas might jump us with a win, same with TCU
-----Duke, Wisconsin, Xavier, Mizzou, New Mexico, and Charleston all win, but none of them vault over Miami
-----Baylor at home against K-State (12-1) is interesting, but will not impact us

Sunday - Rest day:
-----Purdue and Houston both have challenging road games, but no way they drop below Miami with losses
-----Indiana is near us in the rankings, but unlikely to jump us with a home win over Northwestern (10-3)
-----Ohio Taint is at Maryland (10-4), and even though this is a UM "common opponent", there's no way Taint jumps us with a win (this week)



So, my prediction is that UM will be in the 10-12 range next week. Absolute best-case-scenario-if-everyone-loses is #8. We have legit shots to jump UVa and Gonzaga if they lose this week (to Pitt & Santa Clara). But we cannot ignore that Arkansas would probably re-jump us if they beat BOTH ranked Mizzou AND ranked Auburn this week.

- Purdue has 3 games, and would have to drop 2 to fall behind us
- Houston, Kansas, UConn, Arizona, Texas: none of them drop both games this week
- While Alabama and Tennessee and UCLA are teams we could jump, I think they win out this week (Tennessee's harder game is at home, same with UCLA)
 
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TheOriginalCane said:
Hilarious. Absolutely hilarious.

You are getting huffy because I accurately pointed out that NC State is 4th from last in the ACC standings.

And I guess you're bragging about being old? Weird flex.
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Correct, as of now. My guess is when all is said and done, NCSU will be middle of the pack in the ACC -- like 8th or 9th in the 15 team league.
 
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