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NC STATE @ MIAMI(-3.5) 2PM SAT. DEC 10, RSN, ACCNX (also BALLY SPORTS S)

Still don't know how we were able to cover. It's like that final minute NC State waived the white flag.
 

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ALLoverCANE said:
Our short bench was held against us by the models. And ultimately, the models were right.

Eventually, the bench matters - and when Sam and Miller were in foul trouble vs Kansas and we relied on our bench, we were outscored 47-15 in the 2nd half.

If your bench is getting crushed in garbage time, that has proven to be statistically meaningful. You can get away with it for a while if you stay healthy and out of foul trouble, but eventually, you will pay the price.
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You think a loss to Kansas in the Elite 8 proved the models right??? Because there’s no difference between being ranked 15-20 (where we deserved to be ranked) and 45-50 (where we were ranked… is that your point?

Last year Miami’s KenPom ranking was in the high 40’s or 50’s before the tournament. Do you agree with that? Sure, every game is an outlier because there are only 30-40 games in a season… it’s all small sample size stuff, which is exactly why there has not yet been devised a truly accurate or predictive rating system.

But a quick look under the hood for kenpom reveals:
1) the enormous flaw of a rating system that ignores results and ranks exclusively on a point per possession basis; and
2) the outrageous arrogance of a “luck” category based upon the premise that teams winning games the model predicts they would lose are “lucky”.

The real statistical outlier last year was Miami’s luck, according to kenpom. Funny that luck manifested in double digit wins in the round of 32 and sweet 16.

And I’m not interested in gambling on anything, let alone kids… so thanks for your suggestion, but no.

The real frustration as a MIAMI fan is that kenpom punishes great coaches for building a team over a season… so a great record gets overshadowed by not blowing out early season OOC games.
 
AmherstCane said:
You think a loss to Kansas in the Elite 8 proved the models right??? Because there’s no difference between being ranked 15-20 (where we deserved to be ranked) and 45-50 (where we were ranked… is that your point?

Last year Miami’s KenPom ranking was in the high 40’s or 50’s before the tournament. Do you agree with that? Sure, every game is an outlier because there are only 30-40 games in a season… it’s all small sample size stuff, which is exactly why there has not yet been devised a truly accurate or predictive rating system.

But a quick look under the hood for kenpom reveals:
1) the enormous flaw of a rating system that ignores results and ranks exclusively on a point per possession basis; and
2) the outrageous arrogance of a “luck” category based upon the premise that teams winning games the model predicts they would lose are “lucky”.

The real statistical outlier last year was Miami’s luck, according to kenpom. Funny that luck manifested in double digit wins in the round of 32 and sweet 16.

And I’m not interested in gambling on anything, let alone kids… so thanks for your suggestion, but no.

The real frustration as a MIAMI fan is that kenpom punishes great coaches for building a team over a season… so a great record gets overshadowed by not blowing out early season OOC games.
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Meh, agree to disagree
 
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ALLoverCANE said:
Our short bench was held against us by the models. And ultimately, the models were right.

Eventually, the bench matters - and when Sam and Miller were in foul trouble vs Kansas and we relied on our bench, we were outscored 47-15 in the 2nd half.

If your bench is getting crushed in garbage time, that has proven to be statistically meaningful. You can get away with it for a while if you stay healthy and out of foul trouble, but eventually, you will pay the price.
Click to expand...


Eventually the models were right? When we lose in the Elite 8 to the eventual national champion?

GTFOOH.
 
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Allabouttheu95 said:
Any ranking system that determines the acc is one of the worst conferences needs to be thrown out the window immediately.
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So when the poll voters and the selection committee each treated the ACC like it was one of the worst (power) conferences, did you throw those out the window immediately?

No, of course you didn't. For some reason, human prognosticators and analytical rating systems are held to completely different standards. Analytical rating systems routinely beat humans, but whenever they are wrong, some people permanently discredit them.
 
TheOriginalCane said:
Eventually the models were right? When we lose in the Elite 8 to the eventual national champion?

GTFOOH.
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The models said that we weren't an elite team, despite being in the Elite 8.

We were then run off the floor in one of the worst beatdowns in Elite 8 history. We lost by 26; KU beat their 1st round cupcake by 27. We were their easiest or 2nd easiest game all tournament.

We had a great year and it was a fun team. I think we end the year better than the models said, due to an incredible coaching job by L. We also had some good luck, which was a welcome reversal from the prior few years.
 
ALLoverCANE said:
So when the poll voters and the selection committee each treated the ACC like it was one of the worst (power) conferences, did you throw those out the window immediately?

No, of course you didn't. For some reason, human prognosticators and analytical rating systems are held to completely different standards. Analytical rating systems routinely beat humans, but whenever they are wrong, some people permanently discredit them.
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We had 5 teams in. The worst showing in 15 years. Yes I disagreed with it strongly.

The acc is the best basketball conference in America. Even in “bad years”. So yes any person in power downplaying the acc is an issue with me

With coach K and Williams retiring… and Boheim not far behind that may change sooner than later… but for a long time it’s been at the top
 
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ALLoverCANE said:
The models said that we weren't an elite team, despite being in the Elite 8.

We were then run off the floor in one of the worst beatdowns in Elite 8 history. We lost by 26; KU beat their 1st round cupcake by 27. We were their easiest or 2nd easiest game all tournament.

We had a great year and it was a fun team. I think we end the year better than the models said, due to an incredible coaching job by L. We also had some good luck, which was a welcome reversal from the prior few years.
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This is a bunch of your typical horsesh!te.

First, I was at the game. Miami was UP SIX at halftime. Kansas didn't take the lead for good until 15.30 was left left in the game.

We played a terrible second half. Scored 15 points. FIFTEEN. Kansas also had a great second half. Scored 47 points.

Both of those second half performances are statistical anomalies. The fact that they happened at the same time was incredibly unfortunate.

And before you start spouting off bullcrap about Miami having a short bench, Miami played 3 non-starters for 13 minutes or more, while Kansas only played TWO non-starters for greater than 7 minutes apiece. Kansas was just better than Miami, and certainly was for the final 15 minutes of the second half.

This is what losers like you do. You use our worst half of the season, against the best team in the country, to somehow define our entire year as "not elite".

Definitionally, we were elite last year. We were one of the final 8 teams. We won 26 games. We won over 70% of the time. We beat two ranked teams in the first two rounds. We only played a lower-seeded team ONCE in four games at the NCAAs.

Our team IS what it accomplished. Elite.

And five of our top eight contributors returned, plus two of the most sought-after Portal transfers.

You can put your "models" back in your ****** where they belong.
 
Allabouttheu95 said:
We had 5 teams in. The worst showing in 15 years. Yes I disagreed with it strongly.

The acc is the best basketball conference in America. Even in “bad years”. So yes any person in power downplaying the acc is an issue with me

With coach K and Williams retiring… and Boheim not far behind that may change sooner than later… but for a long time it’s been at the top
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"Disagreed with it strongly" is not "thrown out the window immediately"

I'm guessing you know what our ranking is this week and haven't completely dismissed the AP poll, even though it's been as down on the ACC as the metrics.
 
TheOriginalCane said:
This is a bunch of your typical horsesh!te.

First, I was at the game. Miami was UP SIX at halftime. Kansas didn't take the lead for good until 15.30 was left left in the game.

We played a terrible second half. Scored 15 points. FIFTEEN. Kansas also had a great second half. Scored 47 points.

Both of those second half performances are statistical anomalies. The fact that they happened at the same time was incredibly unfortunate.

And before you start spouting off bullcrap about Miami having a short bench, Miami played 3 non-starters for 13 minutes or more, while Kansas only played TWO non-starters for greater than 7 minutes apiece. Kansas was just better than Miami, and certainly was for the final 15 minutes of the second half.

This is what losers like you do. You use our worst half of the season, against the best team in the country, to somehow define our entire year as "not elite".

Definitionally, we were elite last year. We were one of the final 8 teams. We won 26 games. We won over 70% of the time. We beat two ranked teams in the first two rounds. We only played a lower-seeded team ONCE in four games at the NCAAs.

Our team IS what it accomplished. Elite.

And five of our top eight contributors returned, plus two of the most sought-after Portal transfers.

You can put your "models" back in your ****** where they belong.
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Lol alright tough guy
 
ALLoverCANE said:
Lol alright tough guy
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For the guy who used statistical anomaly to dismiss the performance of 4 teams and 13 wins in the tournament (calling the ACC performance in the tournament an outlier), you’re sure putting a lot of weight on a single half of basketball.

And nobody here believes Miami was one of the two or four or six best teams in the country last year… but you’re defending the model that labeled miami the 50th best team in the country at tournament time last year.

According to kenpom there’s essentially no difference between winning and losing when you play good teams. It’s why Creighton is ranked nearly 20 spots ahead of us.

Also, 4 loss Oklahoma State (who lost to UCF) is ranked ahead of us in Kenpom (again, only because they blew out the bad teams they played).

It’s a BAD ranking system.

Has some value as a predictive model, but BAD ranking system.
 
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AmherstCane said:
For the guy who used statistical anomaly to dismiss the performance of 4 teams and 13 wins in the tournament (calling the ACC performance in the tournament an outlier), you’re sure putting a lot of weight on a single half of basketball.

And nobody here believes Miami was one of the two or four or six best teams in the country last year… but you’re defending the model that labeled miami the 50th best team in the country at tournament time last year.

According to kenpom there’s essentially no difference between winning and losing when you play good teams. It’s why Creighton is ranked nearly 20 spots ahead of us.

Also, 4 loss Oklahoma State (who lost to UCF) is ranked ahead of us in Kenpom (again, only because they blew out the bad teams they played).

It’s a BAD ranking system.

Has some value as a predictive model, but BAD ranking system.
Click to expand...

I've lost interest, I'm sorry. Let's agree to disagree and move on.

Go Canes
 
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