First off, this is a good original post, or I wouldn't be bothering to respond with a thoughtful reply.
I do not seek to refute it, but rather to introduce a corollary for the sake of Nu'Ance (first cousin twice removed of Nu'Keese, for those who remember him).
We have been the nation's most underachieving team, given the talent we've had. Full stop, no argument. 2014, in particular, is the worst corching job of all time in CFB. If you don't believe me, look up our rooster.
We have turned countless 9 win seasons into 7-5 by snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. No team makes more backbreaking, catastrophic errors, at the costliest moment. The play we can't afford to **** up, we always implode.
I am not going to do an in-depth analysis of the rosters of all our opponents for the given years.
However, if one were to look more closely at both our talent and the opponent's, I believe a theme would emerge: even where we have better overall roster talent, we lack sufficient matchup advantages to where we'd be able to simply steamroll an opponent with talent.
I.e., in one game, our WRs might be significantly better than their DBs, but our OL isn't better than their DL. In the next game, we have a clear advantage against their running game, but we will get chewed up against in the short range passing game.
Matchups matter, and we haven't had enough, sufficiently wide matchup advantages to play a "B" or "C" game and beat opponents. We've had to play a very good game, and failed.
Quite simply, our rosters have had enough talent to outperform what we have done. But, our rosters have not had the requisite top end or depth to survive an "off game" against a better-than-average opponent.