My Microwaved Take: UM Finishes with a Higher Ranking in Polls than in Crooting

[Cribby]

Its deja vu again this class, just like last year the season will dictate the class, and like last year the staff is depending on a nice season to propel the class into a good finish. Yes Miami is playing with more resources but that won’t matter if we come out and lay a ****……again. Kids want to see if this is really different or just the same ole crap, just with a new coach.

If the season is a flop we still finish with a top twenty class but to take things to the next level we need to win the coastal and show the mood has changed.

 

[CaneBear0207]

I think the dynamic that will doom this prediction is that, the better the season goes, the better our recruiting class will be. It's hard for me to see a point where the lines cross and our on-field performance outpaces our recruiting.

 

[ejfudd]

Cribby, that's a bit discouraging, honestly. Not because I don't think the season will go well, I do. Rather because you would expect the names, reputations, and resources committed to the program would carry more sway with recruits than the performance of a team primarily assembled by an incompetent head coach.

 

[cookies]

I know one thing about this class. It will be a national class. Could have commits from 8-13 different states/countries.

 

[Rellyrell]

I know 8-4 is a more likely outcome than 10+. But I just can’t see 4 losses. Yes the Canes lost 5 last season and barely won a couple more. But we also barely lost most of those 5.

The probable outcome last year was 8-4 with a large standard error. I think our probable outcome is 9-3 with a more narrow standard error (we will NOT lose to FSU). And the upside is on the positive.

Steele and Strong are going to turn the defense from a liability to a strength. All those 2022 kids plus Avantae that were thrown in last year are now veterans. And the transfers are going to contribute big time.

We have no holes, which raises our floor significantly, just a lack of difference makers that limits our celing. But those may emerge as the season progresses, and I hope and expect us to be dramatically better in November than in September.

U’re last paragraph is my concern. Again, historically, when u have a team that’s perpetually underachieved, who gets a new coach, there’s usually a one yr learning curve. B/c we don’t have difference makers, I can see us being in some dog fights w/ a couple of teams just b/c. Culture takes time to build, so I’m not saying we can’t win 10 games, I’m just saying 8-9 wins r my expectations knowing the hurdles we have to overcome.

 

[BostonCanes47]

I think the 2024 class is when Mario and staff will really make some headway. Plus it seems like south Florida is down this year except at wide receiver.

I see Miami finishing 10-4. Losing in the ACC championship, but winning the bowl to finish around 8-13.

Recruiting I see us around 12-17. 2024 I see top 5.

 

[Cribby]

Cribby, that's a bit discouraging, honestly. Not because I don't think the season will go well, I do. Rather because you would expect the names, reputations, and resources committed to the program would carry more sway with recruits than the performance of a team primarily assembled by an incompetent head coach.

Almost two decades of mediocrity does that.

 

[WeBallinBoyz]

One thing I just thought of…since I’m 90% sure we can go over 25 in the class this year as long as we stay under the 85 scholarship limit, wouldn’t that mean we have a better shot to finish higher in recruiting rankings since we can take more kids?

 

[IndayArtHauz]

One thing I just thought of…since I’m 90% sure we can go over 25 in the class this year as long as we stay under the 85 scholarship limit, wouldn’t that mean we have a better shot to finish higher in recruiting rankings since we can take more kids?

Yes. But so can everyone else.

 

[WeBallinBoyz]

Yes. But so can everyone else.

Gotcha, I was just thinking from the perspective that we dumped some dead weight/will continue to do so after this season in all likelihood; more than most schools.

 

[Lokest]

Texas A&M went 8-4 last year and only have trophies for womens badminton and daytime tv. The only caveat is that they have one of the only active HC’s not named Saban to win a championship in the past decade, but after 4 years there he still hasn’t managed to win 10 games.

We either have the bags and staff to compete or we don’t.

 

[Cribby]

Texas A&M went 8-4 last year and only have trophies for womens badminton and daytime tv. The only caveat is that they have one of the only active HC’s not named Saban to win a championship in the past decade, but after 4 years there he still hasn’t managed to win 10 games.

We either have the bags and staff to compete or we don’t.

Did you just compare Miami to one of the biggest exceptions to the rule in Cfb? A school that has as many resources , boosters and nil money as anyone? In a state with legislation that allows the school to negotiate with recruits. Not sure if some of y’all realize how big that is. UT might be the only bigger exception.

Btw when’s the last time Miami finished in the top four and won a big bowl? A&M did it in 2020. They went 9-1 so nice try on the wording of “ 10 wins”. They’ve at least had a moment in recent memory and won some big games.

Does Miami have more resources than before ? Yes, but to compare our situation to the biggest exception in Cfb is crazy. We will never have a class like they had last year, so if some of y’all are thinking that I have some bad news for ya.

So once again that’s a bad example.

 

[DTP]

I know 8-4 is a more likely outcome than 10+. But I just can’t see 4 losses. Yes the Canes lost 5 last season and barely won a couple more. But we also barely lost most of those 5.

The probable outcome last year was 8-4 with a large standard error. I think our probable outcome is 9-3 with a more narrow standard error (we will NOT lose to FSU). And the upside is on the positive.

Steele and Strong are going to turn the defense from a liability to a strength. All those 2022 kids plus Avantae that were thrown in last year are now veterans. And the transfers are going to contribute big time.

We have no holes, which raises our floor significantly, just a lack of difference makers that limits our celing. But those may emerge as the season progresses, and I hope and expect us to be dramatically better in November than in September.

Our non conference schedule was pretty ridiculous last year also. Alabama and Michigan State were top 10 teams and Appalachian State was one of the better G5 programs. Southern Miss, Texas A&M and Middle Tennessee is a much more manageable non conference slate. I think the wheels would have to almost completely fall off to have four regular season losses this year. I’d consider that a failure by the staff

 

[jackbenimble71]

I know, this breaks every conventional wisdom. It defies all expectations. "Mario is most proven as a recruiter!"

You're upset, it's ok. You're slamming the keys, screaming "Inday, did you think about the first year bump?" "Or that we don't actually have a WR on scholarship?"

Fair points, well taken, but I believe this crooting thing will take more time to correct. The biggest fish in the sea are not yet jumping into the boat, and we aren't sneaking up on anyone. I also think we are not crushing the NIL game as comprehensively as we will in the future.

You can take this question whichever way you like: we finish unranked, the Crooters automatically win. We finish 8th or 9th in the nation, that's going to be hard to top with the incoming class. I am personally skeptical that '23 will finish inside the top 10. It's June, but I just don't see it. Despite my opinion being obviously correct, I mean when have I ever been wrong, I believe this poll will be 5 or 6 to 1 in favor of Recruiting.

Just like microwaved food, this take could burn your tongue, or need another 15 seconds to be palatable.

@IndayArtHauz

Gabby is this you?

 

[Lokest]

Did you just compare Miami one of the biggest exceptions to the rule in Cfb? A school that has as many resources , boosters and nil money as anyone? In a state with legislation that allows the school to negotiate with recruits. Not sure if some of y’all realize how big that is. UT might be the only bigger exception.

Btw when’s the last time Miami finished in the top four and won a big bowl? A&M did it in 2020. They went 9-1 so nice try on the wording of “ 10 wins”. They’ve at least had a moment in recent memory and won some big games.

Does Miami have more resources than before ? Yes, but to compare our situation to the biggest exception in Cfb is crazy. We will never have a class like they had last year, so if some of y’all are thinking that I have some bad news for ya.

So once again that’s a bad example.

It’s not just Texas A&M, they’re just the easiest example to point out. If the goal is to temper expectations to Mannys classes then we have to look at all the teams that would finish ahead of us in that case. Are all those teams really going to have that much greater on field success than we have the past decade?


Also in the past 5 years Miami has been ranked as high as #2 in the country looking at the playoffs and won big games before crashing back down to earth in the same way A&M did following their “10 win” season so it’s pretty much irrelevant.

 

[Cribby]

It’s not just Texas A&M, they’re just the easiest example to point out. If the goal is to temper expectations to Mannys classes then we have to look at all the teams that would finish ahead of us in that case. Are all those teams really going to have that much greater on field success than we have the past decade?


Also in the past 5 years Miami has been ranked as high as #2 in the country looking at the playoffs and won big games before crashing back down to earth in the same way A&M did following their “10 win” season so it’s pretty much irrelevant.

If “it’s not just AM “ use another example that actually makes sense and is somewhat comparable.

As for the seasons Miami lost three in a row and ended the season viewed as a fraud. All that work meant nothing. At least AM FINISHED 9-1 ranked 4 and won a big bowl. So even that isn‘t comparable.

 

[grover]

Our non conference schedule was pretty ridiculous last year also. Alabama and Michigan State were top 10 teams and Appalachian State was one of the better G5 programs. Southern Miss, Texas A&M and Middle Tennessee is a much more manageable non conference slate. I think the wheels would have to almost completely fall off to have four regular season losses this year. I’d consider that a failure by the staff

Yeah, it definitely feels low to me. Radio, *** and Lispy all achieved 8 wins without the staff we have. And the portal was barely getting started in the Covid 2020 season when Manny went 8-3. ... But I wouldn't go so far as to call it a "failure" until I see the losses and understand the reasons.

 

[JamesQuall]

I think the 2024 class is when Mario and staff will really make some headway. Plus it seems like south Florida is down this year except at wide receiver.

I see Miami finishing 10-4. Losing in the ACC championship, but winning the bowl to finish around 8-13.

Recruiting I see us around 12-17. 2024 I see top 5.

If we win 10 games, our recruiting class will be towards the middle half of the top 10 or better. Our recruiting rankings are always higher than our poll rankings. There is no way we finish ranked 8-13 with a recruiting ranking less than that. Listen to what Leeds, Cribby, and the other insiders are saying. If we finish where you think we will then we will without a doubt have a top 10 class.

I would say it would be fair to add 3-5 spots ahead of our poll ranking (assuming we finish 20th or better) with our floor being 15th-ish due to performing average (8-4).

 

[DTP]

Yeah, it definitely feels low to me. Onion, *** and Lispy all achieved 8 wins without the staff we have. And the portal was barely getting started in the Covid 2020 season when Manny went 8-3. ... But I wouldn't go so far as to call it a "failure" until I see the losses and understand the reasons.

Yeah, if we have catastrophic injuries, I could understand 8 wins but that aside, less than 9 regular season wins is a failure. If Manny was still here, we'd all want him fired if he went 8-4.

 

[Lokest]

If “it’s not just AM “ use another example that actually makes sense and is somewhat comparable.

As for the seasons Miami lost three in a row and ended the season viewed as a fraud. All that work meant nothing. At least AM FINISHED 9-1 ranked 4 and won a big bowl. So even that isn‘t comparable.

It’s crazy to make out A&Ms covid season as more meaningful than Miamis full 2017 season. That’s not even including that Miami had the longest win streak in the nation during that time period. Both were seen at the time as programs turning the corner under new coaches but obviously they weren’t as they both fell on their face the following year.

Like I said before, if expectations are manny type classes for the next couple cycles then let’s look at those teams that finish ahead of us in that time. In the past, the reason for us not being good was bags, then later on in the failed coaches tenure it was the lack of bags and recruiting prowess on staff. Now we seemed to have fixed both of those, right? If it was a facilities/ infrastructure angle I would understand because no one would argue those don’t need upgrades, but I don’t buy that we need to win the acc or make the playoffs to finish with a top 10 class.