- Joined
- May 28, 2019
- Messages
- 2
Greeting all, I'm a State fan and figured I'd give my breakdown. Fist off let me say you can go to elitedawgs.com and read the opinions of far more than just me, and I'm by no means our best baseball poster. That said, here's my opinion on our draw:
It's fantastic. 1) the 4 seed is truly terrible so we can throw our #3 starter and should dominate. 2) Small is elite so we feel good about that game, then JT Ginn is a really good #2 starter and Brandon Smith is a decent 4th starter so we feel good that we can win game 3/4. 3) Stanford is as good of a SR match as you can want.
Small is a lefty, but there's not much of a dropoff when he's facing righties. He's a FP pitcher who's consistently 91-93, but he's got a high spin rate which gets lots of high swings, and his release is closer to the plate than most so it seems faster than it is. His curve is good too, but like I say 80% of what he throws is that FB. The thing that really separates him is his timing- sometimes he quick pitches it, sometimes he pauses at the top of his windup for a second or more. Really keeps hitters off balance, but that goes away if you can get men on and make him pitch from the stretch. Small is mentally tough and doesn't walk many so there's not much chance of him having a bad game.
Keys for ya'll (or CMU of course): Small gives out after 6-7 innings so you'll get the chance to score off the bullpen. Our lefty (Barlow) has good stuff but has sucked recently (walks). Our #1 reliever (Leibelt) has sucked his last 3 appearances. So that's where you'll have the chance to score runs, I doubt Small gives up more than 2 in 6 ip. Offensively Mangum, Jordan, and Westburg are slumping for us, and our 3rd best hitter is coming back from injury so who knows if he'll be on or not. Allen is the only guy who I'd call "hot" right now, but the rest of the lineup can do damage as well. We're hitting .316 in SEC play and top to bottom have a solid lineup that's got 2 switch hitters and 2 lefties... HOWEVER sometimes we can be too aggressive and gift pitchers with easy outs and low pitch counts. Defensively our infield is suspect but the outfield is elite.
So if ya'll win, it'll look something like this: Small doesn't have his usual control, can't get quick outs, and can't play with his timing. Gives up 2 runs in 6 but a high pitch count means he can't keep going. Leibelt comes on but on his 2nd innings gets touched, Barlow comes on to relief him but walks a couple and y'all get 2 more runs. On the other side we are way too aggressive at the plate, swing at junk, and make weak contact early in the count. Your starter goes deep, and we can't get enough off the relievers to come back.
To be clear though I think we win with Small out there. Our O is very tough to keep down just because the bottom of the lineup will still hit about .300 on the while, and they work the count better than the top does.
PS, idk what that other State fan was talking about when it comes to the atmosphere. Are we trashy? no. are we going to throw beer at you? No. But we will have 14k+ there and the TV makes it seem like we're just as loud as Baum or the Box gets. If you travel there expect to get lots of free food though, we're not animals
It's fantastic. 1) the 4 seed is truly terrible so we can throw our #3 starter and should dominate. 2) Small is elite so we feel good about that game, then JT Ginn is a really good #2 starter and Brandon Smith is a decent 4th starter so we feel good that we can win game 3/4. 3) Stanford is as good of a SR match as you can want.
Small is a lefty, but there's not much of a dropoff when he's facing righties. He's a FP pitcher who's consistently 91-93, but he's got a high spin rate which gets lots of high swings, and his release is closer to the plate than most so it seems faster than it is. His curve is good too, but like I say 80% of what he throws is that FB. The thing that really separates him is his timing- sometimes he quick pitches it, sometimes he pauses at the top of his windup for a second or more. Really keeps hitters off balance, but that goes away if you can get men on and make him pitch from the stretch. Small is mentally tough and doesn't walk many so there's not much chance of him having a bad game.
Keys for ya'll (or CMU of course): Small gives out after 6-7 innings so you'll get the chance to score off the bullpen. Our lefty (Barlow) has good stuff but has sucked recently (walks). Our #1 reliever (Leibelt) has sucked his last 3 appearances. So that's where you'll have the chance to score runs, I doubt Small gives up more than 2 in 6 ip. Offensively Mangum, Jordan, and Westburg are slumping for us, and our 3rd best hitter is coming back from injury so who knows if he'll be on or not. Allen is the only guy who I'd call "hot" right now, but the rest of the lineup can do damage as well. We're hitting .316 in SEC play and top to bottom have a solid lineup that's got 2 switch hitters and 2 lefties... HOWEVER sometimes we can be too aggressive and gift pitchers with easy outs and low pitch counts. Defensively our infield is suspect but the outfield is elite.
So if ya'll win, it'll look something like this: Small doesn't have his usual control, can't get quick outs, and can't play with his timing. Gives up 2 runs in 6 but a high pitch count means he can't keep going. Leibelt comes on but on his 2nd innings gets touched, Barlow comes on to relief him but walks a couple and y'all get 2 more runs. On the other side we are way too aggressive at the plate, swing at junk, and make weak contact early in the count. Your starter goes deep, and we can't get enough off the relievers to come back.
To be clear though I think we win with Small out there. Our O is very tough to keep down just because the bottom of the lineup will still hit about .300 on the while, and they work the count better than the top does.
PS, idk what that other State fan was talking about when it comes to the atmosphere. Are we trashy? no. are we going to throw beer at you? No. But we will have 14k+ there and the TV makes it seem like we're just as loud as Baum or the Box gets. If you travel there expect to get lots of free food though, we're not animals
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