Miami/UNC by the numbers

[marshallrc13]

These numbers mean nothing to me. That's why we play the game. Last Saturday, Texas supposedly couldn't stop the run and Oklahoma ran over anyone they played. We see how that panned out... I want us to line up and beat the **** out of them plain and simple... Run it down their throats to the tune of 200 yds. Pass for over 300. And created 4-5 turnovers. Hopefully the crowd will start clearing out by halftime and I can get a better seat. Let's go CANES!

 

[jruiz]

What would UNC's record be with our schedule? Probably 3-2. This is going to be a dogfight.

lulz

 

[CaneMutiny06]

Our opponents are 12-20, and theirs are 21-11.

This point would resonate more if they had actually been really competitive in their losses, but they haven't. You can lose competitive games to decent teams and still post respectable stats. This UNC team sucks. We should call a spade a spade.

If it were another major program like Alabama, nobody would be questioning their stats despite the quality of the comp, because that's what they'd be expected to do. The only reason people question the numbers Miami has been posting as being reflective of how good they are is because of how Miami's recent teams have performed. But that of course neglects what kind of team Miami returned this year. It was a good team on paper, and its proving to be a good team with its performance thus far.

 

[Gamineal]

They have 68 scholly players...that is all you need to know...

 

[CaneMutiny06]

Couple things:

1. I think it helps to recognize what both of these teams are. This is a UNC team that, if it loses to Miami on Thursday, will likely finish with a losing record. I think this is a 'good' Miami team, and my classical definition of "good" Miami teams is ones that have finished with a minimum of 10 wins. The stats OP posted reflect this view of the 2 teams.

2. Good Miami teams, on the road, have beaten teams that finished with .500 or sub .500 records by an average of about 30 points. Only once has a 10 win Miami team won a road game against one of the above described teams by single digits.

3. I'm going to give UNC some credit here and say they are better and more talented than most of the teams we beat that finished with 1, 2, or 3 wins, and consider that they will be "up" for this game, and that its a conference/divisional match up.

4. Miami is historically excellent on Thursday nights. Even our mediocre to bad teams of the last several years have tended to over-perform on Thursdays (think Texas A&M in '07, VT in '08, GT in '09, Pitt in '10, VT in '12). The only losses we've had on Thursday nights occurred in seasons we went 5-7, 7-6, and 6-6. We're also historically excellent coming off bye weeks.

5. In the last 4 games, Miami has out-performed the spread by an average around 9-10 points. Vegas has clearly under-valued this team and I think that pattern is still holding.

All that leads me to expect Miami to win this game by double digits.

Good post. I do think Carolina has much more talent than its record reflects. But you are correct that next to UCLA, Vegas hasn't undervalued another program more this year. How far back are you going with the data in number 2? Just curious.

1983. We've had 14 teams finish with 10 wins since that time. Even if you go down to teams that only won 9 games though, the numbers look pretty similar.

Unfortunately we don't have any record of how good Miami teams faired against UNC since they never played prior to 2004. However, we do have 9 years of FSU/UNC matchups between '92-'00, when FSU was statistically comparable to Miami. During that frame, FSU went 9-0 against UNC and 4-0 on the road, with road wins of 26, 16, 17, 32. And that was mostly when UNC had good teams.

They have 68 scholly players...that is all you need to know...

Where did you see that figure? I thought it was 78, but could be wrong.

At any rate, we're only playing with 74 ourselves.

 

[Bigtip]

Yes it is wrong and it is still confusing the issues. It implies that all the same variables are in place, when in fact there is a whole new staff and a ton of different players. How can a game 10 years ago with a team that is not our rival, have any effect on today?

Coker and Shannon are long gone, as are the players that played in those games. 2004 and the last 10 years has ZERO effect on the outcome of this game.

Your real concern IMO is whether we "turned the corner" and that is a different issue. Are we ready to continue our undefeated success? I believe you're asking if we are a legit team now because this is a game we lost in the past. We already know, last year's game has no effect on this year. Is Gio Bernard coming back?

Now if we beat UNC, we're beating a 1-4 team. No one is going to think we turned the corner this week, we either already did or we haven't but beating UNC isn't going to show we "turned the corner."

This one game won't prove we're back or we've turned the corner. We would be beating a 1-4 team, it either happened or it hasn't happened.

I will say that last year's game may have an effect simply because these players allowed Gio to do what he did and beat us by himself. We remember that lost, we want to hurt them.

NOPE. seems to me you are confusing two issues. my point does not imply that the same variable are in place. in fact it highlights the OPPOSITE. namely that under 2 prior regimes (i.e. different set of variables) we got the same results.

also, up to this year under this regime we saw similar results.

so the question isnt whether we are legit or turned the corner (whatever that means) but more a question of have the underlying problems that have plagued this program for 10 years been fixed.

what are those problems? there are probably many but the RESULTS have been losing to teams that we have no business losing to. until we show that thats not happening, then I'll be convinced that the 10 years of plague is gone

 

[Calicanerepresent]

Drop all the Savannah State game stats and then see where we rank (drop high/low for surer statistical effect, and then you have to weigh the value of opponents (~RPI), and Mark Twain said: "Statistics never lie, but liars always use statistics."

I am confident we win this game but it's @ their place and we lost to them last year (Gio ate our lunch and Renner looked all-ACC) and a few times before (last sec FG's) so I am wary of the upset.

The one statistic I do find relevant is UNC's scholly #s -- no depth. That favors us.

 

[BoroCane83]

"Release the McCord!"

*removes the chain*

 

[DeadPoets]

Drop all the Savannah State game stats and then see where we rank (drop high/low for surer statistical effect, and then you have to weigh the value of opponents (~RPI), and Mark Twain said: "Statistics never lie, but liars always use statistics."

I am confident we win this game but it's @ their place and we lost to them last year (Gio ate our lunch and Renner looked all-ACC) and a few times before (last sec FG's) so I am wary of the upset.

The one statistic I do find relevant is UNC's scholly #s -- no depth. That favors us.

The worst Miami defense in it's entire history only gave up 18 points to UNC last year. Just sayin

 

[Consigliere]

NOPE. seems to me you are confusing two issues. my point does not imply that the same variable are in place. in fact it highlights the OPPOSITE. namely that under 2 prior regimes (i.e. different set of variables) we got the same results.

also, up to this year under this regime we saw similar results.

so the question isnt whether we are legit or turned the corner (whatever that means) but more a question of have the underlying problems that have plagued this program for 10 years been fixed.

what are those problems? there are probably many but the RESULTS have been losing to teams that we have no business losing to. until we show that thats not happening, then I'll be convinced that the 10 years of plague is gone

You termed turned the corner in this gem.

we all hope that the program has turned the corner and that this team is different than the last 10 years or so but that is still not completely known. tomorrow will help decide

I think we'll win but I am slightly nervous. same as I was with GT and probably will be the same with every ACC game except for Wake and Duke

The point is the last 10 years have no effect on this game. It is just an arbitrary period of time which you choose. So the programs of the last 10 years are IRRELEVANT to this game. This game won't even show us if that irrelevant period of time proves we TURNED THE CORNER.

Al Golden's teams prior to this year were nothing compared to this year. Do we have to go through this list of what got us where we are in 2013 or can we agree that this team is VERY different from 2011/2012?

Like I said, the results of the last 10 years have little to do with the success of us in Chapel Hill or the season as a whole. They are only an arbitrary comparison for how things have gone.

Instead of bickering about this, let me ask you 2 different questions.

1. Do you think things are different now than they were over the last 10 years?

2. How about from December 2010 when AL took over?

 

[Bigtip]

NOPE. seems to me you are confusing two issues. my point does not imply that the same variable are in place. in fact it highlights the OPPOSITE. namely that under 2 prior regimes (i.e. different set of variables) we got the same results.

also, up to this year under this regime we saw similar results.

so the question isnt whether we are legit or turned the corner (whatever that means) but more a question of have the underlying problems that have plagued this program for 10 years been fixed.

what are those problems? there are probably many but the RESULTS have been losing to teams that we have no business losing to. until we show that thats not happening, then I'll be convinced that the 10 years of plague is gone

You termed turned the corner in this gem.

we all hope that the program has turned the corner and that this team is different than the last 10 years or so but that is still not completely known. tomorrow will help decide

I think we'll win but I am slightly nervous. same as I was with GT and probably will be the same with every ACC game except for Wake and Duke

The point is the last 10 years have no effect on this game. It is just an arbitrary period of time which you choose. So the programs of the last 10 years are IRRELEVANT to this game. This game won't even show us if that irrelevant period of time proves we TURNED THE CORNER.

Al Golden's teams prior to this year were nothing compared to this year. Do we have to go through this list of what got us where we are in 2013 or can we agree that this team is VERY different from 2011/2012?

Like I said, the results of the last 10 years have little to do with the success of us in Chapel Hill or the season as a whole. They are only an arbitrary comparison for how things have gone.

Instead of bickering about this, let me ask you 2 different questions.

1. Do you think things are different now than they were over the last 10 years?

2. How about from December 2010 when AL took over?

1. I dont know. that is pretty much the ***cing point. you sure are nit picky about this
2. umm no not really. 2011: 6-6, 2012: 7-5 WOAT defense (literally)

there have been small nuggets (so to speak) along the way that provide hope. like players getting better. but no the overall results have not been different.

it LOOKS like they are this year but with only 5 games and 3 of those vs effective D2 schools, I dont have enough to decide...and neither does vegas or the AP voters for the most part.

that is the impact of 10 years of mediocrity buddy.

like i said though, I think we'll win, but i still have lingering doubt that is basically conditioning from 10 years of the same old ****.

get it?

 

[Canes2082]

Only thing that worries me is that teams seem to play like the # 1 team in the country vs us.... I know everyone wants to beat us, but NOW WE need to go in there, put the pedal down and not let up

 

[Duvalco.Cane]

NOPE. seems to me you are confusing two issues. my point does not imply that the same variable are in place. in fact it highlights the OPPOSITE. namely that under 2 prior regimes (i.e. different set of variables) we got the same results.

also, up to this year under this regime we saw similar results.

so the question isnt whether we are legit or turned the corner (whatever that means) but more a question of have the underlying problems that have plagued this program for 10 years been fixed.

what are those problems? there are probably many but the RESULTS have been losing to teams that we have no business losing to. until we show that thats not happening, then I'll be convinced that the 10 years of plague is gone

You termed turned the corner in this gem.

we all hope that the program has turned the corner and that this team is different than the last 10 years or so but that is still not completely known. tomorrow will help decide

I think we'll win but I am slightly nervous. same as I was with GT and probably will be the same with every ACC game except for Wake and Duke

The point is the last 10 years have no effect on this game. It is just an arbitrary period of time which you choose. So the programs of the last 10 years are IRRELEVANT to this game. This game won't even show us if that irrelevant period of time proves we TURNED THE CORNER.

Al Golden's teams prior to this year were nothing compared to this year. Do we have to go through this list of what got us where we are in 2013 or can we agree that this team is VERY different from 2011/2012?

Like I said, the results of the last 10 years have little to do with the success of us in Chapel Hill or the season as a whole. They are only an arbitrary comparison for how things have gone.

Instead of bickering about this, let me ask you 2 different questions.

1. Do you think things are different now than they were over the last 10 years?

2. How about from December 2010 when AL took over?

1. I dont know. that is pretty much the ***cing point. you sure are nit picky about this
2. umm no not really. 2011: 6-6, 2012: 7-5 WOAT defense (literally)

there have been small nuggets (so to speak) along the way that provide hope. like players getting better. but no the overall results have not been different.

it LOOKS like they are this year but with only 5 games and 3 of those vs effective D2 schools, I dont have enough to decide...and neither does vegas or the AP voters for the most part.

that is the impact of 10 years of mediocrity buddy.

like i said though, I think we'll win, but i still have lingering doubt that is basically conditioning from 10 years of the same old ****.

get it?

I agree. We just don't know yet, but to just throw away/out 10 years of historically sh1tting the bed against teams like this (particularly this team)???? Nah. I've been "Shancokered", and the only way i get cured of the butterflies in my stomach is to beat UNC. FSU?-playing with house money.....then the butterflies return for VT. It is what it is???

Last week really showed me something though. We lose that game 8 out of the 10 years of "bad history". These kids fought right through adversity and pulled out a nice win. Definately a different feeling/experience. Refreshing.

Either this will be a very close upset loss, or we are going to blow them completely out. I don't see a close win. Aaaargh, these damned butterflies!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Consigliere]

1. I dont know. that is pretty much the ***cing point. you sure are nit picky about this
2. umm no not really. 2011: 6-6, 2012: 7-5 WOAT defense (literally)

there have been small nuggets (so to speak) along the way that provide hope. like players getting better. but no the overall results have not been different.

it LOOKS like they are this year but with only 5 games and 3 of those vs effective D2 schools, I dont have enough to decide...and neither does vegas or the AP voters for the most part.

that is the impact of 10 years of mediocrity buddy.

like i said though, I think we'll win, but i still have lingering doubt that is basically conditioning from 10 years of the same old ****.

get it?

So things are not different from when Al took over. We're 5-0. In 2011 after 5 games we were 2-3, in 2012 we started 4-1. That is literal improvement. How about recruiting, has that improved since Al has taken over? We haven't been 5-0 since 2004 (that is in your 10 years!), we haven't won 7 straight games since 2005. That is all improvement. Big improvement.

Small nuggets? Like players getting better, what more would you want? How about if we were undefeated? Would you want that? How about tearing it up in recruiting? ALL WHILE DEALING WITH THE NCAA!!!!!

The point is your using 10 years as some relevant measuring stick, when it is only an irrelevant amount of time. This 10 years means nothing, I know we have stunk for 10 years but not sure what that period indicates. What I am trying to say, things are really different and they are blatantly obvious. So you either are "pre-conditioned" (and that is your right) to the doom squad or you can see the bigger picture and how those 10 years of pre-conditioning have no effect on today.

 

[Picksix]

UNC sucks ***. Miami is going to kick their teeth in. Anybody worried about this game and talking about years past as being evidence to be worried needs to hand in their man card. What exactly is anybody scared of with UNC? They have no rushing attack. A one dimensional offense is not going to sit back and pick this defense apart all game long. Miami has a pass rush this year and the secondary is playing good ball. UNC's defense is garbage. Does anybody really think they're going to control Duke, Crawford and Hagens in the backfield? And when they're not worrying about stopping them in the run game can they control Hurns, Dorsett, Waters, Coley, and Warlord? GTFOOH!

Miami covers this spread by halftime and never looks back. Again, UNC is straight trash this year. If they played USF it would be a good game and we saw what Miami did to those clowns.

 

[Consigliere]

I agree. We just don't know yet, but to just throw away/out 10 years of historically sh1tting the bed against teams like this (particularly this team)???? Nah. I've been "Shancokered", and the only way i get cured of the butterflies in my stomach is to beat UNC. FSU?-playing with house money.....then the butterflies return for VT. It is what it is???

Some people do know (they could be right or wrong) because they have seen enough off the field (Recruiting + Player Development) and the way things have gone this season and see a MAJOR difference today.

When was the last time people saw players running around at that speed like they are this year? When was the last time you saw a player like McCord running around a tackle obliterating a QB? When was the last time you saw a DL like the one we have now? When was the last time you saw offensive weapons like Duke, Coley and Walford making plays CONSISTENTLY? Denzel Perryman is killing people.

The other thing is we beat UNC, what does that prove? It proves we're 6-0? Bowl eligible? 8 straight wins? It would just be more of the same, just a small victory against a 1-4 team. These little things matter, these little things make up the bigger picture.

Things are greatly different. Some can see it and some can't.

 

[zone3cane]

UNC sucks, their team sucks, i dont respect them, i dont care about Renner, Ebron, or Price... they all would be 3rd and 4th string at Miami.

Nobodies who have done nothing.... they are a passing 1st, 2nd, and 3rd offense but Miami has more passing TDs then them. They suck.

Miami is going to roll them, break them, and break their fan base all on Prime Time Television.

Miami - 50

UNC - 14

 

[jakeman1]

It's nothing to do with UNC. People are worried because this type of game has bitten Miami in the *** for the past ten years. I think this year's team is different, but right now, a lot of people don't trust the success. Even the win against UF is being downplayed now.