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Miami/UNC by the numbers

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TwoZero

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I'm not sure why everyone thinks this will be such a tough game. They probably have the untangibles on their side thanks to (what we expect to be) a large and loud crowd for the blackout.

But by the numbers we look good. Really good, actually. We lead in just about every statistical category. Sure, games aren't won on paper. But you guys need to stop freaking out.

OFFENSE

Total Offense: Miami #21, UNC #77
Scoring Offense: Miami #9, UNC #92
Passing Offense*: UNC #23, Miami #33
Rushing Offense: Miami #28, UNC #113
*Keep in mind Stephen has been sitting for a sizeable amount of time this season, while UNC relies on Renner and the passing game.

We've scored 108 more points than UNC so far this season.

We have more passing TD's than UNC so far this season.

We have more rushing TD's than UNC so far this season.

Duke (our leading rusher) has three times the amount of rushing yards as Blue (UNC's leading rusher) does.

Allen Hurns (our receiving leader) has more yards and the same number of TD's as Ebron (UNC's receiving leader) does.

We average half as many plays per TD as UNC does.

We average 25% more yards per play as UNC does.

We average twice as many yards per rush as UNC does.

We average 25% more yards per pass play as UNC does.

UNC averages 45% conversions on third down, while we average 38%.


DEFENSE

Total Defense: Miami #12, UNC #95
Scoring Defense: Miami #9, UNC #95
Passing Defense: Miami #1, UNC #74
Rushing Defense: Miami #71, UNC #101
*Keep in mind we played GT, who doesn't exactly rely on the passing game

Our team is sitting at a +6 turnover margin, while UNC sits at -2.
 
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They played GT too.

Passing offense includes all your QBs not just Stephen Morris. So you may want to say that we played more garbage time then other teams (shortened the game against SS, played Crow against USF).
 
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When you compare our offense to their defense and vice versa, the numbers are extremely favorable for us.

I'm still not sure why people are freaking out about this game. UNC fans are giving us more credit than our own fans.

(not talking about you, OP)
 
This made me feel a lot better. I think we just need to set the tone early on and let them know that they will not win this game. If we let them score early and get a stop or two, that gives them hope and momentum which can lead to an upset. We've just gotta go in there and do our business and close out the win.
 
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Consigliere said:
They played GT too.

Passing offense includes all your QBs not just Stephen Morris. So you may want to say that we played more garbage time then other teams (shortened the game against SS, played Crow against USF).
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yeah, but our starting QB is our starting QB for a reason. i pointed it out because i think we can all agree that we'd be putting up more points and yards if Stephen stayed in games, and that Stephen would probably have some stupid numbers by now if he had played 100% of every game. Renner hasn't sat out nearly as much as Morris has, which favors UNC in the passing numbers.
 
RiDLer80 said:
When you compare our offense to their defense and vice versa, the numbers are extremely favorable for us.

I'm still not sure why people are freaking out about this game. UNC fans are giving us more credit than our own fans.

(not talking about you, OP)
Click to expand...

Their fans are likely educated. Not because they went to UNC but because there is little signs of it from our fan base. Our fans freak out because they are not qualified for rational thought.

On paper you have a 9 point favorite rolling into UNC. That scares people apparently because they believe Gio is their starting RB and since we lost last year WE HAVE TO REPEAT THE PAST.
 
RiDLer80 said:
When you compare our offense to their defense and vice versa, the numbers are extremely favorable for us.

I'm still not sure why people are freaking out about this game. UNC fans are giving us more credit than our own fans.

(not talking about you, OP)
Click to expand...

because we lose to them pretty frequently
 
TwoZero said:
Consigliere said:
They played GT too.

Passing offense includes all your QBs not just Stephen Morris. So you may want to say that we played more garbage time then other teams (shortened the game against SS, played Crow against USF).
Click to expand...

yeah, but our starting QB is our starting QB for a reason. i pointed it out because i think we can all agree that we'd be putting up more points and yards if Stephen stayed in games, and that Stephen would probably have some stupid numbers by now if he had played 100% of every game. Renner hasn't sat out nearly as much as Morris has, which favors UNC in the passing numbers.
Click to expand...

These are the stats, some QBs sit out because of injury or suspension (Johnny Football) but these are the stats. It is Passing offense because it takes all this into consideration and just computes the total passing yards.

Any team can choose to throw the ball in "garbage time" or throw the ball when their "starter" is injured.

Ryan Williams played well when given the chance, the better argument is not S. Morris but we played a lot of "garbage time."
 
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Bigtip said:
RiDLer80 said:
When you compare our offense to their defense and vice versa, the numbers are extremely favorable for us.

I'm still not sure why people are freaking out about this game. UNC fans are giving us more credit than our own fans.

(not talking about you, OP)
Click to expand...

because we lose to them pretty frequently
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And that has what effect this year? How will that 2004 loss effect us today?
 
Couple things:

1. I think it helps to recognize what both of these teams are. This is a UNC team that, if it loses to Miami on Thursday, will likely finish with a losing record. I think this is a 'good' Miami team, and my classical definition of "good" Miami teams is ones that have finished with a minimum of 10 wins. The stats OP posted reflect this view of the 2 teams.

2. Good Miami teams, on the road, have beaten teams that finished with .500 or sub .500 records by an average of about 30 points. Only once has a 10 win Miami team won a road game against one of the above described teams by single digits.

3. I'm going to give UNC some credit here and say they are better and more talented than most of the teams we beat that finished with 1, 2, or 3 wins, and consider that they will be "up" for this game, and that its a conference/divisional match up.

4. Miami is historically excellent on Thursday nights. Even our mediocre to bad teams of the last several years have tended to over-perform on Thursdays (think Texas A&M in '07, VT in '08, GT in '09, Pitt in '10, VT in '12). The only losses we've had on Thursday nights occurred in seasons we went 5-7, 7-6, and 6-6. We're also historically excellent coming off bye weeks.

5. In the last 4 games, Miami has out-performed the spread by an average around 9-10 points. Vegas has clearly under-valued this team and I think that pattern is still holding.

All that leads me to expect Miami to win this game by double digits.
 
I think that our fans realize that to this point in the season, we've played some awful teams - which somewhat skew of our numbers. I think we'll win by 7-10 pts, but they've played a much harder schedule than we have so far. Our opponents are 12-20, and theirs are 21-11.
 
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TwoZero said:
Bigtip said:
RiDLer80 said:
When you compare our offense to their defense and vice versa, the numbers are extremely favorable for us.

I'm still not sure why people are freaking out about this game. UNC fans are giving us more credit than our own fans.

(not talking about you, OP)
Click to expand...

because we lose to them pretty frequently
Click to expand...

What's that gotta do with tomorrow?
Click to expand...

we all hope that the program has turned the corner and that this team is different than the last 10 years or so but that is still not completely known. tomorrow will help decide

I think we'll win but I am slightly nervous. same as I was with GT and probably will be the same with every ACC game except for Wake and Duke
 
Bigtip said:
TwoZero said:
Bigtip said:
RiDLer80 said:
When you compare our offense to their defense and vice versa, the numbers are extremely favorable for us.

I'm still not sure why people are freaking out about this game. UNC fans are giving us more credit than our own fans.

(not talking about you, OP)
Click to expand...

because we lose to them pretty frequently
Click to expand...

What's that gotta do with tomorrow?
Click to expand...

we all hope that the program has turned the corner and that this team is different than the last 10 years or so but that is still not completely known. tomorrow will help decide

I think we'll win but I am slightly nervous. same as I was with GT and probably will be the same with every ACC game except for Wake and Duke
Click to expand...

So a coaching staff and players that are different from games in the past have an effect on this game? You're confusing two different issues:

1. Has this team turned the corner.....i.e. is the program having success

2. Do results in the past effect a game today...i.e. past performance indicate future events

In years past, if we hadn't turned the corner, we would be 4-1 with a loss against UF. We have yet to play down either.

FYI....GT > UNC
 
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CaneMutiny06 said:
Couple things:

1. I think it helps to recognize what both of these teams are. This is a UNC team that, if it loses to Miami on Thursday, will likely finish with a losing record. I think this is a 'good' Miami team, and my classical definition of "good" Miami teams is ones that have finished with a minimum of 10 wins. The stats OP posted reflect this view of the 2 teams.

2. Good Miami teams, on the road, have beaten teams that finished with .500 or sub .500 records by an average of about 30 points. Only once has a 10 win Miami team won a road game against one of the above described teams by single digits.

3. I'm going to give UNC some credit here and say they are better and more talented than most of the teams we beat that finished with 1, 2, or 3 wins, and consider that they will be "up" for this game, and that its a conference/divisional match up.

4. Miami is historically excellent on Thursday nights. Even our mediocre to bad teams of the last several years have tended to over-perform on Thursdays (think Texas A&M in '07, VT in '08, GT in '09, Pitt in '10, VT in '12). The only losses we've had on Thursday nights occurred in seasons we went 5-7, 7-6, and 6-6. We're also historically excellent coming off bye weeks.

5. In the last 4 games, Miami has out-performed the spread by an average around 9-10 points. Vegas has clearly under-valued this team and I think that pattern is still holding.

All that leads me to expect Miami to win this game by double digits.
Click to expand...

Good post. I do think Carolina has much more talent than its record reflects. But you are correct that next to UCLA, Vegas hasn't undervalued another program more this year. How far back are you going with the data in number 2? Just curious.
 
Several people like to point out the quality of the competition Miami has played in relation to their stats, but you also have to take into account that Miami really took their foot of the gas in three games (FAU, SSt.,USF) and defensively a ton of guys got to play at the end of games and allowed some yardage that hurt the numbers. In the end I think it sort of balances out.
 
Consigliere said:
Bigtip said:
TwoZero said:
Bigtip said:
RiDLer80 said:
When you compare our offense to their defense and vice versa, the numbers are extremely favorable for us.

I'm still not sure why people are freaking out about this game. UNC fans are giving us more credit than our own fans.

(not talking about you, OP)
Click to expand...

because we lose to them pretty frequently
Click to expand...

What's that gotta do with tomorrow?
Click to expand...

we all hope that the program has turned the corner and that this team is different than the last 10 years or so but that is still not completely known. tomorrow will help decide

I think we'll win but I am slightly nervous. same as I was with GT and probably will be the same with every ACC game except for Wake and Duke
Click to expand...

So a coaching staff and players that are different from games in the past have an effect on this game? You're confusing two different issues:

1. Has this team turned the corner.....i.e. is the program having success

2. Do results in the past effect a game today...i.e. past performance indicate future events

In years past, if we hadn't turned the corner, we would be 4-1 with a loss against UF. We have yet to play down either.

FYI....GT > UNC
Click to expand...

I am not confusing two issues. under 2 different coaching regimes we got basically the same results (Shanncoker)

it APPEARS that we have finally broken out of that. I am not 100% convinced yet and probably wont be decided until after VT

so no there is nothing wrong with considering that we have lost this kind of game for the last 10 years. it is a valid point. while the prior losses dont directly impact this game the prior losses were indicative of deeper problems. have they been fixed? i think so but like i said, still need more evidence
 
Bigtip said:
Consigliere said:
Bigtip said:
TwoZero said:
Bigtip said:
because we lose to them pretty frequently
Click to expand...

What's that gotta do with tomorrow?
Click to expand...

we all hope that the program has turned the corner and that this team is different than the last 10 years or so but that is still not completely known. tomorrow will help decide

I think we'll win but I am slightly nervous. same as I was with GT and probably will be the same with every ACC game except for Wake and Duke
Click to expand...

So a coaching staff and players that are different from games in the past have an effect on this game? You're confusing two different issues:

1. Has this team turned the corner.....i.e. is the program having success

2. Do results in the past effect a game today...i.e. past performance indicate future events

In years past, if we hadn't turned the corner, we would be 4-1 with a loss against UF. We have yet to play down either.

FYI....GT > UNC
Click to expand...

I am not confusing two issues. under 2 different coaching regimes we got basically the same results (Shanncoker)

it APPEARS that we have finally broken out of that. I am not 100% convinced yet and probably wont be decided until after VT

so no there is nothing wrong with considering that we have lost this kind of game for the last 10 years. it is a valid point. while the prior losses dont directly impact this game the prior losses were indicative of deeper problems. have they been fixed? i think so but like i said, still need more evidence
Click to expand...

Yes it is wrong and it is still confusing the issues. It implies that all the same variables are in place, when in fact there is a whole new staff and a ton of different players. How can a game 10 years ago with a team that is not our rival, have any effect on today?

Coker and Shannon are long gone, as are the players that played in those games. 2004 and the last 10 years has ZERO effect on the outcome of this game.

Your real concern IMO is whether we "turned the corner" and that is a different issue. Are we ready to continue our undefeated success? I believe you're asking if we are a legit team now because this is a game we lost in the past. We already know, last year's game has no effect on this year. Is Gio Bernard coming back?

Now if we beat UNC, we're beating a 1-4 team. No one is going to think we turned the corner this week, we either already did or we haven't but beating UNC isn't going to show we "turned the corner."

This one game won't prove we're back or we've turned the corner. We would be beating a 1-4 team, it either happened or it hasn't happened.

I will say that last year's game may have an effect simply because these players allowed Gio to do what he did and beat us by himself. We remember that lost, we want to hurt them.
 
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