Miami Flo's Predictions

[Squid Bumciorek]

I assume everyone is going to say Flo is a troll now.

Remember when a bunch of posters called me a troll for putting the puzzle pieces together months ago- we were being quiet because we likely didn’t have a full share invite to the B1G and we’d probably end up in the Big 12 until around 2030, which is when the Big 12 TV contract ends?

 

[lindend]

2024 Non-Recruiting Predictions

Date	Prediction	Outcome	Verdict
5/13	Expects news about Miami's move to a new conference to start leaking out in the next couple of weeks
Various	News about the fate of the ACC will break before the season starts.

2024 Recruiting Predictions

Date	Prediction	Outcome	Verdict
5/13	Expects a lot of news to break this week and to do another show this week

 

[lindend]

Flo has been saying for quite awhile he expects some ACC news prior to the season starting....

You're right, I forgot to add this to his non-football predictions. Would you happen to remember one of the shows when he said that?

 

[The U is back to work]

Actually your take is even more shortsighted. Take the lucrative deal, run an inferior league and make the playoff every year. I'd rather be the Gonzaga or Villanova of college football than what we've been over the past 20 years.

We haven’t run the ACC. Now we are running the Big 12. You have to get in one of the P2 and UM is a large enough brand with a TV market that is desirable for network partners.

 

[JZCane0825]

We haven’t run the ACC. Now we are running the Big 12. You have to get in one of the P2 and UM is a large enough brand with a TV market that is desirable for network partners.

You don’t seem to be grasping my point, which doesn’t shock me

 

[RealRussellPumps]

Actually your take is even more shortsighted. Take the lucrative deal, run an inferior league and make the playoff every year. I'd rather be the Gonzaga or Villanova of college football than what we've been over the past 20 years.

Shortsighted would be joining a league that is destined to be relegated to irrelevance within the next 3-6 years as we get closer to a P2 model. If you have a chance to get a seat at the table, even for lesser shares to start, you HAVE to do it. There's no guarantee the B1G reaches back out after this round of expansion, no need to risk it.

 

[Rickd]

Us in the Big 12 has a very 'Miami in the Big East' feel to it, which I honestly wouldn't mind.

Horrible take. B10 and SEC will totally dominate AIR TIME. The "leftover" conferences will be seen only on regional streaming apps. The P2 will be programming major big game matchups for valuable, currently under utilized air time, and elite recruits will head to the P2 almost exclusively. The entire landscape of college football is currently changing. Forget the days when "weaker conferences" were an avenue to success. Miami is too valuable a brand, with too much being invested INTO the program, to basically throw it away and join the B12. Not an option.

 

[Hoyacane1620]

You're right, I forgot to add this to his non-football predictions. Would you happen to remember one of the shows when he said that?

I feel like he says it every week, lol. Someone is always asking about realignment. I'll see if I can find one specifically..

 

[Citizen Cane]

“We had two invites to join SEC and B1G but Dan likes the Charlotte airport so we will be remaining in the ACC for $30m less a season”

Worst airport in America

 

[cway313]

Actually your take is even more shortsighted. Take the lucrative deal, run an inferior league and make the playoff every year. I'd rather be the Gonzaga or Villanova of college football than what we've been over the past 20 years.

We have had great success in the inferior ACC. This is brilliant.

 

[MiGonzCane]

I just posted in the realignment thread why joining the B12 over the B10 is horribly short sighted. If you don't get into the P2/B10, your program is effectively doomed to perpetual second tier status. The lure of more short term B12 money is fools gold (assuming it is even true). The B10 may stop adding schools and you'll be in a world of hurt.

Eventually it will be a couple of years 3-5 until there will be only 2 divisions. In the meantime, you go for the most money in that period. Why join the B10 at discount rate as Flo stated?

 

[JZCane0825]

We have had great success in the inferior ACC. This is brilliant.

The ACC never wanted us in the first place. We have been and continue to be their red headed stepchild. Accept reality.

 

[MiGonzCane]

and what happens if you continue to have the occasional unexpected losses and don't win the B12? Then the worst case materializes.

So you mean the actual scenario where our name has more value than the on field results? Reason why leverage is limited.

 

[Rickd]

Eventually it will be a couple of years 3-5 until there will be only 2 divisions. In the meantime, you go for the most money in that period. Why join the B10 at discount rate as Flo stated?

Nobody knows that. Most people speculate that it will be a decade before the P2 actually consider splitting away from the NCAA. In the meantime ... being IN the P2 by 2026 is where Miami needs to be ... for recruiting AND for programming ... game exposure. The B12 will be virtually invisible on a NATIONAL scale.

 

[MiGonzCane]

I assume everyone is going to say Flo is a troll now.

Remember when a bunch of posters called me a troll for putting the puzzle pieces together months ago- we were being quiet because we likely didn’t have a full share invite to the B1G and we’d probably end up in the Big 12 until around 2030, which is when the Big 12 TV contract ends?

CIS hate everybody that provide factual or valid information until they fail in one!. For me D$, Cribby and Flo are the 3 best YouTube sources on UM Football.

 

[Hoyacane1620]

From Flo's show last night - "theoretical discussion" on realignment.

- Publicly Miami has taken the "we support the ACC" stance
-Privately, they are moving behind the scenes. He believes there is going to be more going public from other schools this week. (maybe the leak from the UNC BOT meeting is the start???) He also expects Miami to be more publicly vocal in the next several weeks - no specific timeline but that's the feeling. Sooner rather than later.

Flo says that everyone acknowledges the realignment of conferences is all about money. He says there are also some murmurs that the SEC & BIG10 and a few of the teams in each conference not receiving full shares may elect to part ways....

The SEC and BIG10 are not the only conferences looking to "poach" other teams and expand membership. Expanded membership = more revenue, specifically in the case of the Big 12.

Flo explores the scenario that Miami joins the Big 12 for a few years at a full share vs the BIG or SEC at less than full shares. In this scenario, other ACC schools would go with Miami as partners. Va Tech and Louisville were mentioned as two of those. What would this mean financially?

BIG10 at 50% share for 6 years, or Big 12 at 100% share for the same 6 years? If the BIG10 partial share is $40 mill and the BIG12 full share is $50-60 mill , is it worth the BIG10 affiliation to take less or take the bigger money ? Competition in BIG 12 is probably a wash to the ACC with the other schools who have already moved and some new additions who go with Miami.

Flo's assumption in all this is by the time the 6 years is up, the entire conference situation is likely blown up anyway.

He says he feels sure it will come down to the money - not what the perception will be or what the fan base likes - he also says he is comfortable with info he has from people who would know that Miami has a spot in a conference other than the Big 12. The decision will be about the money.
He doesn't know what the final decision will be but he is positive that the ACC is done.

These are some of the discussions that have been going on and are still going on....

ND has a lot to do with how this may play out. Being independent may not make sense for them in another couple of years....

 

[Squid Bumciorek]

From Flo's show last night - "theoretical discussion" on realignment.

- Publicly Miami has taken the "we support the ACC" stance
-Privately, they are moving behind the scenes. He believes there is going to be more going public from other schools this week. (maybe the leak from the UNC BOT meeting is the start???) He also expects Miami to be more publicly vocal in the next several weeks - no specific timeline but that's the feeling. Sooner rather than later.

Flo says that everyone acknowledges the realignment of conferences is all about money. He says there are also some murmurs that the SEC & BIG10 and a few of the teams in each conference not receiving full shares may elect to part ways....

The SEC and BIG10 are not the only conferences looking to "poach" other teams and expand membership. Expanded membership = more revenue, specifically in the case of the Big 12.

Flo explores the scenario that Miami joins the Big 12 for a few years at a full share vs the BIG or SEC at less than full shares. In this scenario, other ACC schools would go with Miami as partners. Va Tech and Louisville were mentioned as two of those. What would this mean financially?

BIG10 at 50% share for 6 years, or Big 12 at 100% share for the same 6 years? If the BIG10 partial share is $40 mill and the BIG12 full share is $50-60 mill , is it worth the BIG10 affiliation to take less or take the bigger money ? Competition in BIG 12 is probably a wash to the ACC with the other schools who have already moved and some new additions who go with Miami.

Flo's assumption in all this is by the time the 6 years is up, the entire conference situation is likely blown up anyway.

He says he feels sure it will come down to the money - not what the perception will be or what the fan base likes - he also says he is comfortable with info he has from people who would know that Miami has a spot in a conference other than the Big 12. The decision will be about the money.
He doesn't know what the final decision will be but he is positive that the ACC is done.

These are some of the discussions that have been going on and are still going on....

ND has a lot to do with how this may play out. Being independent may not make sense for them in another couple of years....

I will await for the apologies from all the people who called me a troll. No call outs - let’s see if they have any integrity. I never said we were guaranteed for the Big 12- just that it was increasingly clear months ago that it looked like it was trending this way.

I was an intel analyst for 15 years- interpreting random bits of information and coming up with a factually supported analysis is what I do. Never once trolled - I just go where the facts take me, even if the conclusion is not what everyone wants to hear.

 

[RealRussellPumps]

He says he feels sure it will come down to the money - not what the perception will be or what the fan base likes - he also says he is comfortable with info he has from people who would know that Miami has a spot in a conference other than the Big 12. The decision will be about the money.
He doesn't know what the final decision will be but he is positive that the ACC is done.

This is why it only makes sense to go to the B1G. Forget about the money from conference/TV payouts for a second and we still need to consider that the B1G would possibly give access to funds for research programs as well. Someone posted in another thread and I remember seeing somewhere else that the B1G is the largest funded research conference and would allow us access to funds that would make the small difference in conference funding obsolete. So still no matter which way you spin it, the B1G needs to be the play for us.

 

[Hoyacane1620]

The ACC conference meetings started yesterday in Amelia Island. Maybe we'll hear some tidbits coming out of there.

 

[Squid Bumciorek]

Someone posted in another thread and I remember seeing somewhere else that the B1G is the largest funded research conference and would allow us access to funds that would make the small difference in conference funding obsolete.

Yes I posted that. The number is a bit misleading. It’s not a 10 billion pot of money. It’s basically that if you add up all the research grant value held by all the schools in the conference, it comes out to 10 billion, and conference members can do research projects with each other. So that’s how they come up with the “10 billion in research grants.” In other words , if UM had 1 billion of research grants on its own and joined the B1G, the conference could say it now has “11 billion in research grants.” The school itself doesn’t get more money for research. It’s still eat what you kill, just you can share resources easier. It wouldn’t really do anything about the financial gap.