forums

Miami Flo's Predictions

Advertisement
DMoney said:
I'll say it clearly once again: don't pay big for high school QBs. It's a bad investment.

Eight portal QBs compared to three high school QBs in this year's draft. And one of those three high school QBs was a low-ranked kid from Boca Raton.

@TRick72, here is an exercise that might help: name the best quarterback in CFB for 2024 who: (1) was a Top 10 quarterback out of high school; and (2) is on the same team that signed him out of high school.

The game has changed. It's not a narrative. It's common sense based on the numbers. Spend big on Portal QBs and high school CBs and DTs.
Click to expand...

Here’s an exercise for you. Out of the 20 QBs to start the last 10 National Championship games, only 3 have been transfer QBs, one of which followed his college OC to his next stop. Only 1, Burrow has won a ring with LSU. Oddly enough, LSU the only team to win with a transfer is still spending big on HS QBs.

Every single team that has ambitions to compete for National Championships is still spending big on HS QBs. Like me, there goal is to play for and win championships, not find the next rare “diamond in the rough” that goes on to NFL stardom after leading their college team to a mediocre record.
 
Felonious Monk said:
Who said that? They said don't spend big.
Click to expand...
I See You Dancing GIF by NoireSTEMinist
 
Advertisement
TRick72 said:
Here’s an exercise for you. Out of the 20 QBs to start the last 10 National Championship games, only 3 have been transfer QBs, one of which followed his college OC to his next stop. Only 1, Burrow has won a ring with LSU. Oddly enough, LSU the only team to win with a transfer is still spending big on HS QBs.

Every single team that has ambitions to compete for National Championships is still spending big on HS QBs. Like me, there goal is to play for and win championships, not find the next rare “diamond in the rough” that goes on to NFL stardom after leading their college team to a mediocre record.
Click to expand...
This is a stat with bad data. We’re only 2-3 years into this new world of free transfers. Going back 20 years is a useless exercise. As information changes your approach has to change.
 
supacane said:
He needs to be able to brag on signing say. Facts not gonna change his opinion. Fact is if we start getting into bidding wars for High school QBs, we are gonna be the one looking stupid when they get impatient and leave the roster because they did not start after 2 spring games.
Click to expand...

WTF are you talking about dumb dumb? “brag on signing day” ?? I’m not on any social media site and the only people I communicate online is on here.

What “facts” not going to change my opinion?? The “fact” that you were immediately proven wrong?? The fact is the teams competing for NC are investing big in HS QBs. The fact is Mario like them is trying to invest big in HS QBs while fans like you try to push the narrative that is”dumb” and the way to go is bargain basement hunting for a needle in the haystack. The fact is Mario is going to eventually land one and the fact is when he does the silly narrative you’re pushing will change.
 
Dari Jabs said:
You're looking at just pro-style QBs, if you look at all QBs hes 13/19 (247/composite).
Click to expand...
The entire question is stupid because we haven't even signed top 20 QBs, but ok.
Drew Allar
Jackson Arnold
Nico Iamaleava
Now explain to me how this correlates to our situation and our QBs that are all 3-4 years away from competing for a spot.
 
Advertisement
COCane4Life said:
This is a stat with bad data. We’re only 2-3 years into this new world of free transfers. Going back 20 years is a useless exercise. As information changes your approach has to change.
Click to expand...

No one went back 20 years, even though transfer have been around forever. Yes it’s more free now so let’s look at the last 3 years. Out of the 6 QBs to start the NC game, only 1 was a transfer and he followed his college OC to his next stop.

Again even if “the information has changed” which it hasn’t, the teams competing for NC are still spending big on HS QBs. WE ARE trying to spend big on HS QBs but haven’t been successful in that endeavor YET. When we are, that narrative will change.
 
So just to recap, Carson Beck was the #19 QB that year and ranked below the likes of:

DJ Uiagalelei
Evan Prater
Ja'Quinden Jackson
Hudson Card
Malik Hornsby
Harrison Bailey
Luke Doty
Haynes King
Ethan Garbers
Shane Illingworth
Jay Butterfield
Chubba Purdy
Tyler Van Dyke
Jeff Sims
Drew Pyne

So go back to the drawing board, @cway313 and @TRick72
 
Advertisement
Advertisement
cway313 said:
The entire question is stupid because we haven't even signed top 20 QBs, but ok.
Drew Allar
Jackson Arnold
Nico Iamaleava
Now explain to me how this correlates to our situation and our QBs that are all 3-4 years away from competing for a spot.
Click to expand...
You're speaking in absolutes as if there's only one way of thinking that's right.

The truth is somewhere in the middle (as it almost always in these CIS arguments).

You can take a variety of approaches when it comes to QB but the fact is, most high school QBs are busts.

For every Drew Allar (class of 2022) there is also Cade Klubnik, Ty Simpson, Walker Howard, Devin Brown, Gunner Stockton, Sam Horn, Nick Evers, Brady Allen, AJ Duffy, Tayven Jackson, Katin Houser, etc. Most of those are busts or jury is still out but likelihood they bust.

For every JJ McCarthy (class of 2021) there is also Quinn Ewers (transfer), Caleb Williams (transfer), Sam Huard (bust), Brock Vandagriff (transfer), Kyle McCord (transfer), Ty Thompson (transfer), Jake Garcia (bust), Jaxson Dart (transfer), Tyler Buchner (bust), Kaidon Salter (transfer), Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (bust), etc. Milroe and Stone are solid QBs though from that class.

The list goes on and on and on. The odds are most QBs in each class end up busting.

Should we take a good QB prospect every year? Yes, absolutely. I don't think anyone is saying we shouldn't.

But unless you're a QB whisperer, which Mario isn't, then is there also a different approach to take by investing in proven commodities and getting a better bang for your buck. You still need to play both sides of the coin but it's a reasonable strategy.
 
TRick72 said:
No one went back 20 years, even though transfer have been around forever. Yes it’s more free now so let’s look at the last 3 years. Out of the 6 QBs to start the NC game, only 1 was a transfer and he followed his college OC to his next stop.

Again even if “the information has changed” which it hasn’t, the teams competing for NC are still spending big on HS QBs. WE ARE trying to spend big on HS QBs but haven’t been successful in that endeavor YET. When we are, that narrative will change.
Click to expand...
We don’t have enough information to proclaim one is greater than the other at this point. 50% of the QB’s in last year’s playoffs were transfers. How can you look at cfb in 2024 and say it hasn’t changed?

If you look at the top 5 betting favorites to win the natty. 3 of the 5 will feature a transfer QB. 5 out the 5 took a QB in the portal this cycle. Oregon took 2.

Georgia, OSU, Texas, Oregon, Bama
 
cway313 said:
Can you explain why all other major universities still believe in their ability to evaluate and develop blue chip QBs?
Click to expand...
A simple concept that most understand pretty easily: the top teams are already on top when they sign blue-chip QBs. It's an easy sell and they don't need to overpay. But let's look at the top schools' starters next year:

Ohio State- Transfer
Georgia- #19-ranked QB
Michigan- Battle between 3* and transfer
Alabama- #13-ranked QB
Washington- Transfer
Texas- Transfer
Florida State- Transfer
Oregon- Transfer
 
Advertisement
Back
Top