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Mario and Talent Acquisition

RVACane said:
There could be a lot of things going on. Playing time helps. When I think about it, the gator had a better class and there’s no way Billy Napier’s a better pure recruiter than Mario. They paid a **** ton in NIL ad i understand it. I’m sure Lagway helps but I think the money is probably the difference in things.
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I always try to remember that the recruiting rankings are cumulative (not that you didn't know this, but I often forget).

Florida's class is very similar to ours in terms of blue chip ratio. The difference in score is basically one five-star, the flip of Stubbs and then a bunch of filler (I might add that two of their best three recruits are legacy if I was really trying to poke holes).

No doubt that the big NIL spending helped. But I think our staff's biggest mistake was thinking they could rely on late flips to finish off the class. Hopefully Mario and company learn from that this go-around.
 
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RVACane said:
That’s a good situation. I think the way I look at it though is would I rather have Mario at UM with our NIL or Lashlee at UM with our NIL???
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Probably a better way to compare.

But I don't get the sense that SMU is at some NIL disadvantage. They have a larger endowment (flawed comp for NIL, I get it) and all these billionaires who want to see the football team return to prominence. I could be wrong, maybe we are spending 2-3X.

But now that they are in the ACC, they are making a nearly identical pitch that we are, only they have a CFB playoff appearance to point to and arguably more playing time available. But they aren't even swimming in the same pool of talent that we are.
 
MikeyCanez said:
I always try to remember that the recruiting rankings are cumulative (not that you didn't know this, but I often forget).

Florida's class is very similar to ours in terms of blue chip ratio. The difference in score is basically one five-star, the flip of Stubbs and then a bunch of filler (I might add that two of their best three recruits are legacy if I was really trying to poke holes).

No doubt that the big NIL spending helped. But I think our staff's biggest mistake was thinking they could rely on late flips to finish off the class. Hopefully Mario and company learn from that this go-around.
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I think another issue is that we’re in the ACC. Look at the top players in the last class - like all the 5 stars went to the SEC and BIG plus Notre Dame who’s an anomaly. We’re still leading the recruiting in the ACC but I have to think the conference affiliation is a killer with other things equal or closer to equal.

My question for insiders, is how much of a discount does the SEC and BIG get vs us and is it closer after those top programs. Like we can still beat out the lower tier teams in those conferences without a suck tax??
 
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MikeyCanez said:
I wouldn't be shocked if we did pay him 700k, but certainly that isn't too rich for Georgia's blood, assuming they wanted the kid just as bad as we did?

Possible that, like @RVACane said, playing time made the difference here. The path is MUCH clearer here than at Georgia.
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Am i missing something or does it seem to you as well that we have better odds pulling in the higher rated players in the portal than straight out of high school???

Like maybe they went to a school and have seen the dog and pony show and are now looking for money and fit???
 
RVACane said:
Am i missing something or does it seem to you as well that we have better odds pulling in the higher rated players in the portal than straight out of high school???

Like maybe they went to a school and have seen the dog and pony show and are now looking for money and fit???
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Probably a lot of truth to that as well.

One more take (and I am sure some of the guys on here can correct me if I am wrong) but it felt like a down year in South Florida as far as high-end talent is concerned.

In 2024, there were four South Florida kids ranked in the 247 Top 100 and we landed three of them (I weep for thee, Jeremiah). In 2025, there was one, Hanks, and he was a Florida legacy.

It is early, but for now, in 2026, there are 7 (if you count Campbell, who is technically ranked #102) so hopefully we can bounce back a bit.
 
RVACane said:
I don’t agree with your assessment on the impact of NIL. It’s different now. Money is entirely in the open as a bidding war and it’s much bigger. There’s a lot more parity this year as a result of schools who didn’t play the bag game - at least not competitively - now in the legal bag game.

There’s still value to being a good recruiter. If all things are the same as to money, or close to it, the better recruiter can shine in those situations. But it’s less impactful of a trait, in my opinion, than pre-NIL days. If I’m hiring a HC today, I am putting the ability to evaluate, develop and coach above recruiter.
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I'll agree to disagree I just don't believe for the majority of deals that the disparity between team A and team B is that large. The better salesman will win when the offers are similar. That's how business works.
 
It is a matter of perspective I suppose.

I have the expectation that Miami is not good enough if we are not competing for titles. I know it’s been a while, but that is what 5 titles in 20 years does, sets a standard.

I understand the game changes, the money changes, etc. but title run capable is still my bar for wether a guy is good enough for this job or not.

That being said, he is not a good enough recruiter. Of staff or of players. Why? Because he can’t coach. Being a top 20 recruiter isn’t good enough, top 15 isn’t good enough. Top ten is marginally good enough. If you can’t out coach, you have to out talent. Top 5 annually, anything less and he is falling behind.
 
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westcoastcanes said:
It is a matter of perspective I suppose.

I have the expectation that Miami is not good enough if we are not competing for titles. I know it’s been a while, but that is what 5 titles in 20 years does, sets a standard.

I understand the game changes, the money changes, etc. but title run capable is still my bar for wether a guy is good enough for this job or not.

That being said, he is not a good enough recruiter. Of staff or of players. Why? Because he can’t coach. Being a top 20 recruiter isn’t good enough, top 15 isn’t good enough. Top ten is marginally good enough. If you can’t out coach, you have to out talent. Top 5 annually, anything less and he is falling behind.
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he can't coach? the guy has had 2 top 5 qb's and 2 pac 12 wins, and 3 10 win seasons recently. you may question some of it but to say he can't coach shows when saban, butch, and schiano all loved this guy is a joke. he's not perfect but saying he can't coach is ridiculous.
 
nycane said:
he can't coach? the guy has had 2 top 5 qb's and 2 pac 12 wins, and 3 10 win seasons recently. you may question some of it but to say he can't coach shows when saban, butch, and schiano all loved this guy is a joke. he's not perfect but saying he can't coach is ridiculous.
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Thanks for the analysis
 
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The most recent recruiting class says he isn't a great recruiter. We went 10-2 and have money.

The way we look when we play matters. Mario isn't a good football coach and his teams show it. That negates his recruiting as much as NIL evens the field. The way we ended our season was horrible.

He's also failed tremendously at certain position groups since arriving. He took Emory as his QB. We have minimal talent on the defensive side of the ball.

If he was this fantastic accumulator of talent, then year 4 should be a great year and we should win our very weak conference. However, we will not. We will likely regress in year 4.

Mario is not really good at anything. He's passionate and he tries, but he just doesn't have what it takes
 
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MikeyCanez said:
But now that they are in the ACC, they are making a nearly identical pitch that we are, only they have a CFB playoff appearance to point to and arguably more playing time available. But they (SMU) aren't even swimming in the same pool of talent that we are.
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That's highly debatable. South FL vs Metroplex recruits? Based on production on field this century ...
 
RVACane said:
Am i missing something or does it seem to you as well that we have better odds pulling in the higher rated players in the portal than straight out of high school???

Like maybe they went to a school and have seen the dog and pony show and are now looking for money and fit???
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Some schools appear to be throwing disproportionate NIL resources at high school players versus portal (ie Florida, Michigan).
 
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MikeyCanez said:
I wanted to wait until after we got a quarterback because at this rate, we are going to end up re-recruiting Poffenbarger.

But there were waaaay too many people on here talking about how Mario isn't elite at talent acquisition anymore. Fast forward a few weeks and despite almost no momentum to end the season, he has beaten out a lot of brand-name schools with lots of money to land at least 7 surefire contributors (wait and see on Karnley) and overhauled a secondary with no defensive coordinator in place and a current secondary coach that is likely a lame duck.

He also retained almost every key player from a 10-win team (Horton and Williams are the exceptions) with almost none of the drama that FSU had with Payton and DeLoach and others last season. He even snatched a well-respected personnel and talent evaluator away from Bill Belichick of all people.

I think it is time to put the narrative that Mario can't acquire talent to bed once and for all.

Yes, these evaluations still have to pan out and there is PLENTY to criticize him for and we will see what happens at quarterback and defensive coordinator.

But he deserves credit for not resting on the laurels of a 10-win season and identifying and addressing areas of weakness in the offseason.

Next year will be a huge litmus test for how we end up thinking about his tenure here, but good things are in motion at the very least.
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I give Mario credit for firing Guidry so quickly and getting the secondary talent they need out of the portal. However, when you talk about talent acquisition you have to talk about high school recruiting as well. While his classes have been ranked high, the attrition has also been high. Go back and look at that top 2023 class. Is decimated. Then consider on a position specific basis. The recruiting in the secondary has been terrible. QB recruiting has been bad. That’s why we have nobody in the wings right now. Too many projects we hope pan out like Emory and Judd. As much criticism as the secondary gets, the linebackers might be just as bad.

Mario is good at recruiting and talent acquisition. I will 100% agree with that. But I do think he was a little oversold in this department, and I don’t think he’s good enough to overcome his poor evaluations, gameday coaching, and at this point, lack of development.
 
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