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Managing the salary cap

bobbydigius said:
That was a great OL. They neutralized a talented Bama DL.
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Exactly. Qb’s were rarely touched and rb’s had huge holes. People just go off their success at the NFL . Well arguably the best Ol ever at Miami didn’t have a bunch of Pros. But it was a great college “ unit “.

As smart as the average football fan is nowadays I’m shocked there’s a different answer than the obvious lol.
 
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TimeBum said:
Very good isn't elite though. From 2016 to 2021 they had a 2nd rounder, 4th rounder, and 7th rounder drafted from their OL. If I'm looking at where to spend my money, I can see that a team was able to be nationally competitive without having a bunch of 5 stars (who cost a mint) across the OL. You can build a OL that is "college good" and win a title with 4 star O linemen playing as a well coached, cohesive unit. On defense though, I think you have to spend $$$ for those 5 star DEs and DTs.
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Out of curiosity when did all 3 get drafted?
 
I went and did the same thing for OL from 2014-2018 (moved the clock back a couple years since OL develop slower). More similar to QB than DL.

Cam Robinson (2nd)
Damian Prince
Martez Ivey
Mitch Hyatt
Chuma Edoga
Maea Teuhema
Greg Little (2nd)
Jonah Williams (1st)
Tommy Kraemer
Alex Leatherwood (1st)
Foster Sarrell
Walker Little (2nd)
Trey Smith (6th)
Isaiah Wilson (1st)
Wyatt Davis (3rd)
Nicholas Petit-Frere (3rd)
Jamaree Salyer (6th)
Jackson Carman (2nd)
Cade Mays (6th)
Brey Walker
 
Seeing Tate Martell on that list should scare anyone away from betting the farm on a QB.

I think part of this is also opportunity. Usually only one QB per year gets a chance to show out. DL has a lot more chances to get on the field so that they can flash and rise.

Case in point, if King didn't get hurt last year, we would never have seen TVD and there would not be any Heisman or draft buzz about him. Same guy but injuries opened the opportunity for him and he excelled.
 
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A transcendent QB has and will continue to be the most important factor in winning and losing.
 
bobbydigius said:
Out of curiosity when did all 3 get drafted?
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2020- 4th round G
2020- 7th round G
2021- 2nd round G

I guess some people feel it is meaningless that Clemson had, at best, marginal NFL talent on its OL for the last 6 years yet was still competitive for the playoffs and national championships. I think it is instructive because it gives you insight into where money and 5 stars matter most. When someone like Ruiz says he is looking at doing 10 mil per year in NIL deals (in other words, a fixed budget), should he give 2 mil to a 5 star OL or 3 mil to a top WR? I think the top WR would be worth that kind of $$$, but you could be just fine with multiple 4 star OL that cost considerably less.
 
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Cribby said:
Ol, DL and qb……f the rest. Trenches and qb dictate the game and make everybody look better.
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Ol can be serviceable and you can still be great. An elite WR can takeover and win you games. If you look at playoff teams college and NFL 80% had elite #1 WR’S. Ol is cool and all but you can do things to mask and protect weak OL.
 
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DMoney said:
I went and did the same thing for OL from 2014-2018 (moved the clock back a couple years since OL develop slower). More similar to QB than DL.

Cam Robinson (2nd)
Damian Prince
Martez Ivey
Mitch Hyatt
Chuma Edoga
Maea Teuhema
Greg Little (2nd)
Jonah Williams (1st)
Tommy Kraemer
Alex Leatherwood (1st)
Foster Sarrell
Walker Little (2nd)
Trey Smith (6th)
Isaiah Wilson (1st)
Wyatt Davis (3rd)
Nicholas Petit-Frere (3rd)
Jamaree Salyer (6th)
Jackson Carman (2nd)
Cade Mays (6th)
Brey Walker
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Which would you pick WR or OL?
 
Looking at it strictly from a salary cap type of viewpoint, I'm spending money on DL recruits over QB recruits. It's just easier to guarantee you'll get your money's worth with defensive linemen. The best DL recruits usually become the best DL college players and the best DL draft picks. Probably because the game doesn't change much for them from high school to the pros. QB is by far the most important position but the hit rate on 5 star guys nearly what it is with defensive linemen. Just playing the odds, you're more likely to strike gold on a 5 star DL than 5 star QB. Not to mention the fact that you only play one QB so it's either all or nothing. Whereas you might drop a bundle on a DE but because he's going to be playing with three other linemen plus rotating in and out of games, he can fail to live up to expectations while still making a positive impact. Your second best DL is still a starter and major contributor. Your second best QB doesn't play unless there's a blowout or the best QB gets hurt.
 
genxcane said:
Seeing Tate Martell on that list should scare anyone away from betting the farm on a QB.

I think part of this is also opportunity. Usually only one QB per year gets a chance to show out. DL has a lot more chances to get on the field so that they can flash and rise.

Case in point, if King didn't get hurt last year, we would never have seen TVD and there would not be any Heisman or draft buzz about him. Same guy but injuries opened the opportunity for him and he excelled.
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Yea, I think what's interesting about @DMoney's research is that QB is a position where the weight of the eval for the OC and QB coach you trust is likely of higher value than the star system and throwing crazy money at a guy because he's a 5 star could be a shortsighted use of whatever funds Ruiz and Co have allocated to NIL.

Obviously we all want 5 stars at all positions. But DL is likely more of a throw money at 5 stars and if they come it tends to work out spot. ****, no one is high on what our development at Miami has been the last 10 years but our last two 5 stars were 3rd and 1st round picks under Manny (Chad and Jalean).
 
Behind a top OL, a four star can play like a top three - five star.

And with a top DL, that same four star won't have to play like a Mississippi Gambler to save the day.
 
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1. QB
2. WR
3. CB
4. DE
5. OL




28 WR’s drafted, 6 in the 1st round, 7 in the 2nd.

Since the start of the CFP era in 2014, every team that has won a Natty used the same formula except one & that was UGA. But every other team won with Elite QB play, Elite WR play & good enough Defense.

UGA was really the outlier last year, but all of Bama’s championship teams(in the Playoff era) were QB/WR lead & same with Clemson, LSU & OH ST.

Most teams have a predetermined ceiling when using the pound the rock method, unless you have a UGA caliber Defense.
 
DMoney said:
There has been a lot of discussion about QB recruits signing 7-figure NIL deals. It got me thinking- since money is not unlimited, what is the most important place to focus NIL resources? I went and compared five-star QBs and DL from 2016-2020. Since there are more DL than QBs, I used the Top 5 QBs every year even if a couple were high 4-stars.

The list is below with draft spot in parentheses. First rounders and projected '23 first rounders (per Dane Brugler in the Athletic) are bolded. Based on this, it seems the smart money is spent on five-star DL. That is the traditional bag spot and there is a method behind the madness.

QB

Shea Patterson
Jacob Eason (4th)
KJ Costello
Malik Henry
Feleipe Franks
Davis Mills (3rd)
Hunter Johnson
Tua Tagovailoa (1st)
Jake Fromm (5th)
Tate Martell
Trevor Lawrence (1st)
Justin Fields (1st)
JT Daniels
Dorian Thompson-Robinson
Justin Rogers
Spencer Rattler
Bo Nix
Jayden Daniels
Ryan Hilinski
Graham Mertz
Bryce Young (projected 1st)
DJ Uiagalelei
CJ Stroud (projected 1st)
Hudson Card
Ja’Quinden Jackson

DL

Rashan Gary (1st)
Dexter Lawrence (1st)
Ed Oliver (1st)
Nick Bosa (1st)
Derrick Brown (1st)
Oluwole Betiku
Jeffery Simmons (1st)
McTelvin Agim (3rd)
Rashard Lawrence (4th)
Benito Jones
Jaelan Phillips (1st)
Marvin Wilson
Chase Young (1st)
Joshua Kaindoh (4th)
Aubrey Solomon
AJ Espenesa (2nd)
LaBryan Ray
Xavier Thomas
Eyabi Anoma
Micah Parsons (1st)
KJ Henry
Taron Vincent
Brenton Cox
Nolan Smith (projected 1st)
Kayvon Thibodeaux (1st)
Antonio Alfano
Zacch Pickens (projected 1st)
Zach Harrison (projected 1st)
Travon Walker (1st)
Christopher Hinton
Bryan Breese (projected 1st)
Myles Murphy (projected 1st)
Jordan Burch
Gervon Dexter
Will Anderson (projected 1st)
Jalen Carter (projected 1st)
Chris Braswell
Sav'ell Smalls
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Talk about PERSPECTIVE!

Let's go pay the big boys......
 
Liberty City El said:
1. QB
2. WR
3. CB
4. DE
5. OL




28 WR’s drafted, 6 in the 1st round, 7 in the 2nd.

Since the start of the CFP era in 2014, every team that has won a Natty used the same formula except one & that was UGA. But every other team won with Elite QB play, Elite WR play & good enough Defense.

UGA was really the outlier last year, but all of Bama’s championship teams(in the Playoff era) were QB/WR lead & same with Clemson, LSU & OH ST.

Most teams have a predetermined ceiling when using the pound the rock method, unless you have a UGA caliber Defense.
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Alabama's running backs have been just as elite as the WRs.

Since 2014 starters:
Derrick Henry
Damien Harris
Najee Harris
 
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gogeta4 said:
olineman are.

qb isnt anymore
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I doubt that. OL is 2nd hardest because you have to be able to think. But the bust rate on QB from both HS to college and College to the NFL is sky high. I do agree though OL is very difficult. You can’t measure someone’s ability to think critically when the lights are on, which are the biggest components to playing those positions. But I’m sure someone has compiled some data, I’d be shocked if OL busts more than QB.
 
Dre said:
Yea, I think what's interesting about @DMoney's research is that QB is a position where the weight of the eval for the OC and QB coach you trust is likely of higher value than the star system and throwing crazy money at a guy because he's a 5 star could be a shortsighted use of whatever funds Ruiz and Co have allocated to NIL.

Obviously we all want 5 stars at all positions. But DL is likely more of a throw money at 5 stars and if they come it tends to work out spot. ****, no one is high on what our development at Miami has been the last 10 years but our last two 5 stars were 3rd and 1st round picks under Manny (Chad and Jalean).
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King was a 3 star (excellent QB)
TVD was a low 4 star (phenom)
Malik Rosier was a 3 star (10 game winner)
Jarren Williams was a high 4 star (basura)
Tate Martell was a borderline 5 star (bench)
Jake Garcia was a borderline 5 star (bench)

QB is a tough position to evaluate. I've stopped trying. I've seen reports here on Rashada saying he is a transcendent QB and others saying he is one of the most overrated QB recruits in recent memory. Will be interesting to see how that turns out.
 
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