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Let’s talk wide receivers

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JUST CATCH THE **** BALL!!!!
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Pearson704 said:
yea, I'm just wondering if it's a general feeling or if there's anything specific about matching up with aTm's talent and coaching to make you feel that way..
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Gotcha. I don’t think Miami can’t win, I just don’t expect it. Here’s what I see:

1) Significant home field advantage in a night game. Team beat Bama last year in a similar scenario.

2) Third game under a completely new staff. While a huge improvement from the previous admin, it takes time for all of those changes to reach critical effectiveness. Game 3 is not it, especially on offense.

3) Heavily reliance on new/unproven players. I think the DL will be vastly improved, maybe top 5-10 in the nation, but it’s still their third game together. I think think the CBs will improve, less dramatically, still haven’t seen it yet. WRs will have to play at a level we don’t even know they can.

4) Opponent’s top end talent and overall depth. Jimbo has been building this thing for years. I still think he’s a corch, but he's got his best roster ever at TAMU. Even if they were coming here that’s not something we can overcome easily. I think they have more proven skill players than us, they have a deeper OL than us, and a deeper DL. Hard to win away with that.

5) TAMU has great return guys. We’ve historically struggled to cover PR/KR. One TD here could swing the game or multiple 30-50 yard returns could as well.

There are reasons to think we could win too. QB, Jimbo’s a corch, Steele ain’t scared, their style isn’t prone to pulling away early and that will help us. But I do not expect a win.
 
CanesDynasty said:
Wait!! So you're telling me there has been improvements since the start of camp? I don't believe it!

And I mean this with the highest level of sarcasm to all the fans who wrote this group off based on a spring game and the 10 minute viewing portions of practice
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You're right, of course. As a amateur observer, in my experience, soft hands are developed over years, not weeks or even months. Think of guys like Hankerson or Cager. They took a long time to develop softer hands. Most of us who raised the red flag had this in the back of our minds

I think what's different here is what @Cribby noted in his initial post -- most of our current WRs are not known for dropping the ball, and many of them had no issues with drops last year. Which points more to scheme and overthinking routes and body positioning. And unlike stone hands, mental-error-driven drops can be fixed in weeks.

When I saw Gattis working with the WRs in ball control drills a couple weeks back, I knew they would start to see big improvements. He was essentially telling them by his actions that securing the ball was a higher priority than all the other things they were thinking about and getting distracted over. And lo and behold, less drops.
 
IndayArtHauz said:
Jimbo’s a corch, Steele ain’t scared, their style isn’t prone to pulling away early and that will help us.
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Agree we should expect a loss. But I want to heavily emphasize the bolded point.

I was in Austin when UT went on it' golden run with Mack Brown. As we see with Brown at UNC, he's not a championship coach. IMHO, he's a total corch. Look at whom he hired as his DC lol. He won because Vince Young made it so.

Jimbo at FSU, same recipe, just switch Young with Winston. Jimbo at A2M = corch with a lot of talent but no Vince or Jameis. This A2M team will lose 3 or more games this year, I guarantee it. I am hoping Miami is one of their losses.
 
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rayray said:
LSU scored 20 offensive points in the first half and then basically sat on the ball the entire second half cuz they knew we had no chance of coming back. they also kicked a FG from the 3 yard line on their second possession of the second half. we got our *** kicked on both sides of the ball in that game, that box score is a lie.
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Context matters.

They scored 20 “offensive points” in the first half

- 3 points starting at our own 47 because of a 20 yard punt
- 7 points due to a field goal blocked, broke a 50 yd run on 2nd and 15.
- 7 points due to Feagles’ 34 yard punt, started close to midfield.
- 3 points due to Feagles’ 22 yard punt, again they started near midfield.

Should have been 10-3 at half at worst. They were not a good team, but we were an abomination. Miss me with that “they kicked our a$$” comment, we kicked our own a$$.
 
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@Da Jumbo Mutombo

Brother...the other thread got locked, but here are a few links about Dominator and what it means. The original formula and methodology was in a book written by Frank Dupont a decade ago and its origins start back on the old footballsfuture forums (old school draft talk forums)...brother, I really don't want to go deep dive those forums, but you're more than welcome to find it over there, even if the original threads exist.

First article is a premium one, but first half goes over some methodology before the premium kicks in...gives you some numbers and why it matters to college players when we're talking fantasy football.

Improvements to Breakout Age Make It Even More Effective in Locating Wide Receiver Gems - RotoViz

Matt Spencer takes a deep dive into wide receiver breakout age to optimize it and make it even more powerful than it already is.
www.rotoviz.com www.rotoviz.com

Here is it applied to Stefon Diggs, but outlines outliers, busts, etc.
www.playerprofiler.com

How Breakout Age suggested Stefon Diggs would be an NFL star

Breakout Age is one of the most important advanced stats, metrics, and analytics for identifying NFL Draft sleepers, such as Stefon Diggs, and busts, such as Cordarrelle Patterson, for fantasy football dynasty leagues.
www.playerprofiler.com www.playerprofiler.com

Another with some more analytics
dynastyleaguefootball.com

Wide Receiver Breakout Age by Draft Round

We look at historical breakout age and hit rates to create a new set of rookie wide receiver rankings.
dynastyleaguefootball.com dynastyleaguefootball.com

You can use a website like PlayerProfiler (lots of it is premium these days since the launch of Underdog fantasy sports...but here is Key'Shawn Smith's page...look at those percentiles (compares to players at their own age range)...you can play with playerprofiler to look up other players, too.
www.playerprofiler.com

Key'Shawn Smith Stats & Fantasy Ranking - PlayerProfiler

Key'Shawn Smith player profile featuring career stats, fantasy ranking, & analytics data. See combine scores, SPARQ, measurables, and comparable players.
www.playerprofiler.com www.playerprofiler.com

Also, if you want to search the forums for some of my old posts on it, by all means. I've hit quite a few home runs on this forum when this metric told me to zig when the CiS'rs were zaggin.
 
IndayArtHauz said:
Gotcha. I don’t think Miami can’t win, I just don’t expect it. Here’s what I see:

1) Significant home field advantage in a night game. Team beat Bama last year in a similar scenario.

2) Third game under a completely new staff. While a huge improvement from the previous admin, it takes time for all of those changes to reach critical effectiveness. Game 3 is not it, especially on offense.

3) Heavily reliance on new/unproven players. I think the DL will be vastly improved, maybe top 5-10 in the nation, but it’s still their third game together. I think think the CBs will improve, less dramatically, still haven’t seen it yet. WRs will have to play at a level we don’t even know they can.

4) Opponent’s top end talent and overall depth. Jimbo has been building this thing for years. I still think he’s a corch, but he's got his best roster ever at TAMU. Even if they were coming here that’s not something we can overcome easily. I think they have more proven skill players than us, they have a deeper OL than us, and a deeper DL. Hard to win away with that.

5) TAMU has great return guys. We’ve historically struggled to cover PR/KR. One TD here could swing the game or multiple 30-50 yard returns could as well.

There are reasons to think we could win too. QB, Jimbo’s a corch, Steele ain’t scared, their style isn’t prone to pulling away early and that will help us. But I do not expect a win.
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1) Kyle Field's definitely a tough place to play, but Bama is Bama and a conference foe. Much more so a game they'd circle on their calendar.

2) Agreed, though I think the disparity in coaching staffs is enough to the point where the effect will be felt before they've really put their stamp on the team. I think the team will look better immediately.

3) Solid points, but I don't think it'd take a Herculean effort from our WRs or any position group to get the W if TVD plays a good game. I don't consider A&M an elite team.

4) They may have a more talented overall roster top to bottom, but we have the better quarterback and coaching staff...depth on the lines alone isn't necessarily preferable, & a lot of their best talent is inexperienced.

5) Hopefully the coaching improves there too & it translates to better coverage. Touchbacks and punts out of bounds couldn't hurt our cause.
 
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