Had a slow morning so I sat down and watched three condensed games
UM vs UL 2019
UM vs UAB 2020
UL vs WKU 2020
I'm not an X&O's expert but here's my two cents on what I saw without getting very technical.
On Offense for Miami
1. We did just about everything you can imagine well on offense against UL last year. They were putrid. We ran and threw all over them, basically at will.
2. Our game against UAB is a bit of a throw away. Not too much to be gleaned from it as far as scheme goes. We know we are going to run it and push the tempo, but I don't think our true bread and butter tendencies were revealed in any meaningful way in that game. I am interested to see how the running game takes shape once we incorporate the full passing complement into the offense.
3. After watching them play against WKU it does not appear UL is much better on defense if at all. They gave up multiple big plays in the run game and pass game. They have some fast LBs that aren't particularly disciplined and that is about it. Not much in the way of play makers elsewhere on the defense. Miami can take advantage of their aggressiveness with some misdirection stuff but, we can also just cram it up their *** and power straight through their charmin soft DLine IMO. They can limit our success on the edges with their speed but, they don't appear to have any answer in the middle. Their secondary doesn't communicate particularly well and doesn't appear all that speedy either. It's one thing to find speedy undersized LBs in the recruiting bargain bin, a lot harder to find true diamonds in the rough speedsters at DB.
On Defense for Miami
1. Last year Louisville had success with crossing routes and roll outs. They still use those concepts and they were evident against WKU also when Cunningham seems most comfortable. Cunningham was able to drop back against WKU but he stared his targets down and threw into questionable coverage several times. One of those should have been an INT that their WR Fitzpatrick made a nice play on and turned into an 80 or so yard housecall. Our DBs haven't shown elite ball skills so it's imperative they use good technique, attack the highpoint etc. 'cause the UL WR corps will go get the ball when it is in the air. They run off tackle with success using speedy, shifty backs. They were able to get some chunk yardage plays against us last year in the run game but lacked the consistency running the ball to make a difference in the outcome. Overall I feel like our Dline isn't necessarily worse even though we are going to miss Rousseau in the pass rush. What is noticeably worse is UL's Oline.
2. UL lost Becton, Becton was a difference maker for them last season. The reality is 2020 UL has an O line about as good as we had last season, which is to say it is ****. I expect our Dline to feast in this game. UL relies on big plays and doesn't drive the ball particularly well, this is because they have negative yardage plays due to poor o line play, they commit penalties, and Cunningham isn't particularly accurate and has a tendency to airmail throws.
3. Cunningham can be a liability. All you will see in the highlights and condensed games is him winging it down field or hitting Atwell moving across the formation but you won't see what happens on the other 50% of his throws. Every one of those is a ball we can come down with IMO. All we have to do is match their big plays with plays of our own on defense. We did it last season with Rob Knowles logging a big portion of the snaps at S and the same secondary we are all complaining about right now against the same receivers and QB. Throw in Bubba Bolden and take away Becton and I feel like the matchup stays solidly in the good guys favor.
4. On defense we lost Rousseau and the LBs. These are sizeable losses but so far have not shown to have changed the the look of our defense greatly. The UAB gameplan was to get it out before we could get there. They did that for the most part. I don't know if having Rousseau on the field would have resulted in a lot more sacks or pressures. The LBs had a tendency to make nice plays but were also inconsistent at times and susceptible to getting washed out of plays or making bad reads, etc. While McCLoud played poorly by most standards I don't know if a decreased level of performance at WLB is that big of a liability. I was encouraged by Jennings play and if McCLoud screws up too much I imagine we will see more of Sam Brooks anyways. Bottomline I believe the defense can replicate their performance from last season against this UL team.
On special teams
UL is pretty terrible. Tutu muffed a punt against us last season. KJ had some nice returns too. Against WKU they fumbled one punt snap, had another blocked. Their punter is just not good. Their coverage teams are just soso. They have some big play potential in the return game based on personnel but I don't think they are well coached enough in that phase of the game to take advantage. This goes back to UL being fairly undisciplined across the board.
Final thoughts
UL is about as good as they were last season, they are not significantly better in any phase of the game. At least not at this point in the season. Miami is better on offense by virtue of D'eriq King, Lashlee's perceived scheme improvements, a more mature O line, and the dynamic freshman duo at RB with Cam leading the way. We are improved on ST and we weren't horrid against UL last year in that phase of the game. On defense we lost some difference makers and we are still looking for clear leaders to step up and give us the edge that we lost when Rousseau opted out. That being said we are still stout against the run and difficult to drive the ball on. I don't see Louisville making enough big plays to win this game if we take care of the ball and win in the other two phases of the game where we have a clear advantage.
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