I'm at a conference in Orlando and haven't been able to do the usual breakdown. Really upset about it because I did so much homework on FSU over the summer and watched them closely up to this point in the season. Irma f'd everything up.
In shorter than I'd like, here are the key matchups I think will weigh heavily the game:
Mark Richt (and support) vs Charley Kelly (and support)
Last year, Kelly had a field day switching up coverages from what they had previously shown and to more consistently aggressive coverage schemes. Richt called about every formation in the playbook and never had a real answer. Primarily, my concern was about Richt using Berrios on the outside on in-breaking routes and bigger guys (like Herndon and Njoku) inside on outbreaking routes or as decoys. We essentially let them off the hook in terms of their previously suspect middle of the field. We'll talk about that in a second, but I want to reiterate that we will once again NOT see success trying to get outbreaking routes on smaller, quicker guys like Trey Marshall, etc.
If we don't see motion in this game, I'm not sure what to say. Wake used it effectively to both get FSU in matchups and to force them to tip their hand at times. Passing on early downs will be a key statistic to watch.
UM WRs/TEs vs FSU DBs
This stems a bit from the coaching matchup above, but there's more. We'll get a very good idea by taking a look at how they shade Richards early in the game. If Richt fails to use him as the "queen" on his chess board, it'll be disappointing. If Richards is used at all WR positions - SE, Flanker, Slot - we can put our best effort in challenging the very talented FSU DBackfield vertically.
If FSU is arrogant enough to toss Mcfadden at him in single coverage, I think Richards can have a breakout game against a "big name." If we keep our passing offense primarily outside the hashes, I think we'll likely struggle. A key player matchup to watch here will be FSU's Kyle Meyers. He is very talented. I'd like to see him forced to read combination routes or get naturally picked off inside because he can hang athletically with all of our guys and probably has an [athletic] advantage on Berrios. I think Berrios can beat him on the underneath routes, though. Get him in whip routes and moving across the field, please. This is a call to Richt to throw out everything he's got against this DBackfield.
People are thinking about Matthew Thomas against Herndon, but you're more likely to see Trey Marshall try to slow him down, which is where Richt must go vertical and Rosier must trust it.
UM RBs vs FSU LBs
To quickly follow up on the above, it's up to Richt to use Herndon and our inside WRs to push these guys back and have Walton/Homer trail and sit directly behind those routes. The Kansas City Chiefs do this amazingly well with Kelce and Kareem Hunt. It should be a staple in this game to get our RBs matched up in the middle of the field against their LBs.
UM Safeties/Nickel vs FSU WRs/slot
This is a huge one. It'll depend largely on Fisher's willingness to move away from a lot of the I-Form he flashes and into spread sets. If FSU runs as much I-Form against us as they did against Wake, I think we win by double digits. I strongly doubt Fisher would hand us that type of advantage, so I'd look for him to attempt something closer to what Toledo did with their spread sets and multiple WRs to the boundary than what Duke did with their TE. If I'm helping gameplan FSU's offense, I also attempt Murray inside and see what work he can do in some single matchups against Redwine.
Finally, trying to think like Jimbo Fisher, I expect some max protect sets with as low as 3 eligible receivers running routes. In those, combination routes exposing post and corner patterns could be beneficial for their big WR, Tate.
I expect Manny Diaz to blitz a good amount tomorrow, but from different platforms. I especially anticipate the Corner blitz.
There's so, so much more, but I'm stuck in this m'f'in conference. Before last year, given the injury states of both teams, I thought the Canes should have won last year's matchup by 10+. I think they should win tomorrow by 7. We'll see if they can finally get over the hump.