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Official Josh Pate Pre-Season Power Rankings

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grover said:
Sloppy list. He even numbered 15 as 10, that's how rushed he was putting this out. Bad look to be honest.

Directionally, he's saying FSU is better than us and we're roughly equivalent to Clemson. He's also saying the ACC is dramatically worse than the "P2", which I don't once you get beyond Bama, UGA, Taint and maybe Texas.

... Also, the Gators don't belong in anyone's Top 25.
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FSU is currently favored at Miami on every single sports book. Pretty much every analytical site / person with an unbiased view considers FSU the best team in the ACC (on paper). SP+, FPI, PFF, CFN, Phil Steele, Sargarin, EOS…MGM, Ceasars, DraftKings, Fanduel, William Hill, Stations, Circa, Wynn…you get the point.

Now I think this will change by the time we get to kickoff, but as of now they are basically going off the notion Norvell is a top 10 coach in football + on what he did with Travis, he can work with a much more toolsy (on paper) QB in DJ. That and his knack for identifying talent/development (at least last two years, whether that’s sustainable remains to be seen). I don’t agree, but it is what it is.

Personally I think DJ is about as mid as they come, his ceiling is fringe top 30 QB in college football. But their defense is very good on paper, particularly their secondary. Score on them early and force them to open up on offense, they’re toast imo. The games they win will be won off defense, running the ball, clock management, and turnovers.

This might come as a shocker to many of you, but Mario Cristobal’s stock is the lowest it’s been from a national perspective. He is not considered a good coach, in fact the main reason everyone is hesitant on Miami (besides the fact we constantly do this every year just like Texas did before they got over the hump) is solely centered around his coaching and game management. Now that might ruffle plenty of feathers, but that’s the perception. That’s not my words, just read articles or listen to podcasts.

With all that being said, I really don’t see a tangible reason why we should lose to FSU this season. And if we do, yikes.
 
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WeBallinBoyz said:
FSU is currently favored at Miami on every single sports book. Pretty much every analytical site / person with an unbiased view considers FSU the best team in the ACC (on paper). SP+, FPI, PFF, CFN, Phil Steele, Sargarin, EOS…MGM, Ceasars, DraftKings, Fanduel, William Hill, Stations, Circa, Wynn…you get the point.

Now I think this will change by the time we get to kickoff, but as of now they are basically going off the notion Norvell is a top 10 coach in football + on what he did with Travis, he can work with a much more toolsy (on paper) QB in DJ. That and his knack for identifying talent/development (at least last two years, whether that’s sustainable remains to be seen). I don’t agree, but it is what it is.

Personally I think DJ is about as mid as they come, his ceiling is fringe top 30 QB in college football. But their defense is very good on paper, particularly their secondary. Score on them early and force them to open up on offense, they’re toast imo. The games they win will be won off defense, running the ball, clock management, and turnovers.

This might come as a shocker to many of you, but Mario Cristobal’s stock is the lowest it’s been from a national perspective. He is not considered a good coach, in fact the main reason everyone is hesitant on Miami (besides the fact we constantly do this every year just like Texas did before they got over the hump) is solely centered around his coaching and game management. Now that might ruffle plenty of feathers, but that’s the perception. That’s not my words, just read articles or listen to podcasts.

With all that being said, I really don’t see a tangible reason why we should lose to FSU this season. And if we do, yikes.
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I accept everything you wrote and am not really ruffled by him having us underdogs v FSU and roughly equal to Clemson. That’s fair until we prove we can beat them.

The rest of the rankings seem biased to me. Feels like he’s overrating the SEC and BiG. But if he’s going off Vegas odds which I didn’t bother to read and understand his assumptions, then that makes more sense.

What a season this could be. Hope Miami proves all the doubters wrong.
 
grover said:
I accept everything you wrote and am not really ruffled by him having us underdogs v FSU and roughly equal to Clemson. That’s fair until we prove we can beat them.

The rest of the rankings seem biased to me. Feels like he’s overrating the SEC and BiG. But if he’s going off Vegas odds which I didn’t bother to read and understand his assumptions, then that makes more sense.

What a season this could be. Hope Miami proves all the doubters wrong.
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I actually want to touch upon Pate’s rankings, as I both agree and disagree with a lot of points raised in this thread.

Let’s start with UF. I agree with a lot of people in this thread that scoff at their #21 ranking. Personally, it’s blasphemous to see them ahead of a team like Oklahoma St., returning nearly all 22 starters off a team that made the conference championship, led by a top 10 coach in college football from a playcalling standpoint as well as a coaching/development standpoint imo.

But I want to caution people: I’m currently wrapping up a pretty beefy model for college football…the Gators are not a bad team. Sure we laugh at Napier for his coaching blunders, dunking on them in recruiting, their defense being Swiss cheese, their asinine and uber-embarrassing fanbase. That is all valid.

But the narrative we and the media have run with has led to this preconceived notion that UF is some trash football team. Taking extremes out of it, they’re still talented. They have a higher blue chip % than us on their current roster. They have playmakers, so I just caution everyone - this isn’t like UF is equal to a Wake Forest or Cincinnati. They have a stupid coach, but they do have players that were coveted by every major program in America. They’re a 35-40 team for me though, not top 25. That’s why we should WIN.



Elsewhere, I sort of agree FSU is better than Michigan. It’s not that I think both are elite though. Both good defenses, both good OL’s, both lost a lot of production from 2023. One has an average QB, one has a completely unknown at QB. One has a pretty proven HC, one has a bit of a mystery at HC until more body of work is uncovered. One plays in the ACC, one plays in the Big 10 and plays Texas week 2 non-con. Better chance FSU finishes with 10 wins than Michigan in essence, even if I think both don’t finish with more than 9. I know that shouldn’t sway your rankings, but it does in a sense.

I think OU is too high, but they’re going to lean on their defense in the SEC. Dangerous game. Missouri’s schedule is cake. Tennessee should be pretty decent, 12-25 for me conservatively. Back to blue chips, A&M has a top 5 roster from a talent perspective, and now you’re merging that with a coach that worked miracles with Duke players, and had great success as a DC at the same school not too long ago.

LSU is all talent perspective, again back to their roster. Kelly is a pretty decent coach despite being a POS human being. The assumption is Kelly can get the most out of his roster, and the defense will be improved under Baker. Outside the top 10 for me though, personally.

Utah is too low imo. I sneaky think UCF can be top 25, and I love the Iowa St inclusion. They’re going to be a tough team to play.

One thing is for sure though. If Miami wins 10 games…you can put a lot of question marks to bed that opposing schools and national media run with. QBs under Mario, winning in general, coaching blunders (maybe, depends on how the losses looked to an extent), so you’re right. What a season this could be.
 
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Pate openly contradicts his own rankings and powerrankings all the time. He makes "executive" decisions for no reason.
 
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Well if you want to bust Vegas take under on FSU win total, just absolutely hammer GT -13 in the opener. I was saying 2 years ago FSU will be better than people think, and im saying now they arent a top 10 team, they arent winning the ACC, they lost way too much, and didnt replace with equal parts. Its not rocket science. They had 6 top 100 picks in the draft. I feel confident right now they have 1-2 for 2025 draft.

Josh Pate is a SEC guy. He does a good job, but he is from Columbus, GA.

Michigans defense would chew DJU up and spit him out. No way you could favor FSU over Michigan. Sorta laughable
 
and yet he has us finishing the season at #7 and in the playoffs with a home playoff game
 
SaiyaMan305 said:
Pate says this time and time again but people dont ever seem to pay attention or care.

These are not rankings, theyre power ratings.

Essentially what team would vegas favor if they were on a neutral field. As of now in every book FSU is favored to beat us by vegas at home. Also we are 2.5 point favorites vs the gators so their ranking makes sense in this context.
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You get the show
 
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88 said:
Not buying it with Penn State again, groundhog day with Franklin there.

Elko got poppin quick at Duke so im sure people think with all that talent there plus Weigman they get it popping quick there too.

Wisconsins def got the coaching on both sides of the ball with Fickell+Longo but if TVD wins the job... gonna be a lot of Miami eyes on them.

I havent followed as close lately but who are the playmakers on FSU to lead them to a top 10 finish? Talent will have to carry DJU
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Badgers have TVD.

Your observation is moot.
 
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PUNCICANE said:
and yet he has us finishing the season at #7 and in the playoffs with a home playoff game
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Again, this power rating is as of now and what his computer model says. He stated he went against Washington like 3 times last year and was wrong all 3 times. He also disagress with his model on the regular.
 
I understand this is power ratings, and I know he leans on Vegas odds.

HOWEVER, Penn St and FSU being ahead of Michigan is wild ****. Idc how many players Michigan lost, they still return a lot of good players and they have STARS on their defense. Also, they are one of the country's best programs and developing players. Way better than Penn St and FSU.
 
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Manfred_Cane said:
I understand this is power ratings, and I know he leans on Vegas odds.

HOWEVER, Penn St and FSU being ahead of Michigan is wild ****. Idc how many players Michigan lost, they still return a lot of good players and they have STARS on their defense. Also, they are one of the country's best programs and developing players. Way better than Penn St and FSU.
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Penn state has the 5th-most wins in the CFP era with 88. They usually beat everyone except Michigan and Ohio State. They get Ohio state at home this year and don’t play Oregon, Michigan, or Iowa.

Their three hardest games are @USC, @Wisconsin and home to Ohio State, all in a three-game stretch. They should probably win 10 games or else Franklin’s seat might warm up. They have the deepest RB room in the country and hired Kotelnicki from Kansas to diversify their offense. Defense should be more than fine despite Manny leaving, they return a ton of talent.

They’re better than Michigan on paper imo, but it’s not clear cut so I can see your argument. Personally, I’m not high on Drew Allar.
 
WeBallinBoyz said:
Penn state has the 5th-most wins in the CFP era with 88. They usually beat everyone except Michigan and Ohio State. They get Ohio state at home this year and don’t play Oregon, Michigan, or Iowa.

Their three hardest games are @USC, @Wisconsin and home to Ohio State, all in a three-game stretch. They should probably win 10 games or else Franklin’s seat might warm up. They have the deepest RB room in the country and hired Kotelnicki from Kansas to diversify their offense. Defense should be more than fine despite Manny leaving, they return a ton of talent.

They’re better than Michigan on paper imo, but it’s not clear cut so I can see your argument. Personally, I’m not high on Drew Allar.
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They lose when it matters until proven otherwise.
 
SaiyaMan305 said:
Pate says this time and time again but people dont ever seem to pay attention or care.

These are not rankings, theyre power ratings.

Essentially what team would vegas favor if they were on a neutral field. As of now in every book FSU is favored to beat us by vegas at home. Also we are 2.5 point favorites vs the gators so their ranking makes sense in this context.
Click to expand...

WeBallinBoyz said:
FSU is currently favored at Miami on every single sports book. Pretty much every analytical site / person with an unbiased view considers FSU the best team in the ACC (on paper). SP+, FPI, PFF, CFN, Phil Steele, Sargarin, EOS…MGM, Ceasars, DraftKings, Fanduel, William Hill, Stations, Circa, Wynn…you get the point.

Now I think this will change by the time we get to kickoff, but as of now they are basically going off the notion Norvell is a top 10 coach in football + on what he did with Travis, he can work with a much more toolsy (on paper) QB in DJ. That and his knack for identifying talent/development (at least last two years, whether that’s sustainable remains to be seen). I don’t agree, but it is what it is.

Personally I think DJ is about as mid as they come, his ceiling is fringe top 30 QB in college football. But their defense is very good on paper, particularly their secondary. Score on them early and force them to open up on offense, they’re toast imo. The games they win will be won off defense, running the ball, clock management, and turnovers.

This might come as a shocker to many of you, but Mario Cristobal’s stock is the lowest it’s been from a national perspective. He is not considered a good coach, in fact the main reason everyone is hesitant on Miami (besides the fact we constantly do this every year just like Texas did before they got over the hump) is solely centered around his coaching and game management. Now that might ruffle plenty of feathers, but that’s the perception. That’s not my words, just read articles or listen to podcasts.

With all that being said, I really don’t see a tangible reason why we should lose to FSU this season. And if we do, yikes.
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What's interesting is FSU insiders don't really think FSU has a better roster than Miami, everyone is assuming a Norvell Xs and Os boost + bad Miami coaching is gonna produce the FSU W. I'm not sure Guidry isn't the best scheming guy out of all the coaches involved here.
WeBallinBoyz said:
Penn state has the 5th-most wins in the CFP era with 88. They usually beat everyone except Michigan and Ohio State. They get Ohio state at home this year and don’t play Oregon, Michigan, or Iowa.

Their three hardest games are @USC, @Wisconsin and home to Ohio State, all in a three-game stretch. They should probably win 10 games or else Franklin’s seat might warm up. They have the deepest RB room in the country and hired Kotelnicki from Kansas to diversify their offense. Defense should be more than fine despite Manny leaving, they return a ton of talent.

They’re better than Michigan on paper imo, but it’s not clear cut so I can see your argument. Personally, I’m not high on Drew Allar.
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I'm down for a Penn State v Miami vintage feel playoff game if Notre Dame isn't around to get this work.
 
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