Hidden Points- Turnovers

[Lance Roffers]

Lance, what is counted when you say there is a negative points expectation if you have the ball at your own 1 yard line? is it just safeties and defensive scores on live offensive plays? I.e., the formula would be expected value of your team scoring less expected value of points the opposing defense is likely to score on your possession?

@Lance Roffers

Essentially when you have a 1st & 10 towards your own goal line it is more likely that your opponent scores before you do. The main driver is that most teams have to punt from near their own goal line and then your opponent receives excellent field position that makes their scoring quite likely.

 

[Ethnicsands]

Essentially when you have a 1st & 10 towards your own goal line it is more likely that your opponent scores before you do. The main driver is that most teams have to punt from near their own goal line and then your opponent receives excellent field position that makes their scoring quite likely.

That’s what I’m trying to understand. Is your math based on your possession plus the opponents next possession? Seems odd. So if you score at the 1, you still count your kickoff and their next possession? Sounds arbitrary. I was assuming the negative expectation for your own goalline was because of interceptions and safeties on your snap. If we’re counting their next series also not sure what to make of the stat.

 

[Insanecane]

The thing that made the 2001 team so dangerous was how we capitalized on the numerous turnovers Ed Reed and company got for us. You should do a comparison between 2001 and last season

 

[Lance Roffers]

That’s what I’m trying to understand. Is your math based on your possession plus the opponents next possession? Seems odd. So if you score at the 1, you still count your kickoff and their next possession? Sounds arbitrary. I was assuming the negative expectation for your own goalline was because of interceptions and safeties on your snap. If we’re counting their next series also not sure what to make of the stat.

It's all just expected points from various places on the field. It has nothing to do with the next possession etc. and is simply about the expectations of points being scored. Field position on your own goal line is so bad that your opponent is expected to get more points out of that field position than you are.

If it makes it easier to absorb, you can simply make the expected points for that area of the field zero. You aren't going to impact your results much at all to do so since you are talking about at most -0.5 points (from the one-yard line).

 

[Lance Roffers]

That’s what I’m trying to understand. Is your math based on your possession plus the opponents next possession? Seems odd. So if you score at the 1, you still count your kickoff and their next possession? Sounds arbitrary. I was assuming the negative expectation for your own goalline was because of interceptions and safeties on your snap. If we’re counting their next series also not sure what to make of the stat.

I would also state that it's ok with me to not believe in everything analytics have to tell us. I believe that analytics guys do the industry a disservice when they try to insinuate others "do not understand" or that "they are _____" for not believing the same way they do.

Everyone has to make determinations for themselves what they want to believe in and what they want to disregard. That never offends me at all. I simply present the information as a labor of love and anyone who reads it will need to make decisions for themselves how they want to interpret it.

Thanks for the responses.

 

[Ethnicsands]

It's all just expected points from various places on the field. It has nothing to do with the next possession etc. and is simply about the expectations of points being scored. Field position on your own goal line is so bad that your opponent is expected to get more points out of that field position than you are.

If it makes it easier to absorb, you can simply make the expected points for that area of the field zero. You aren't going to impact your results much at all to do so since you are talking about at most -0.5 points (from the one-yard line).

I think you’re coming back to what I thought you were saying originally. Expected points over what series of possessions? It makes sense that the answer is ‘just your current series.’ What that requires, however, for the negative point expectation to make sense is that it counts (only) opposing defensive scores (like safeties and interception returns). It wouldn’t count opponent field position after you punted, because that introduces subsequent possessions.