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Recruiting mailbag: Is it time for Florida fans to be concerned about Billy Napier?
Last week, Billy Napier and the Florida Gators had one of the worst weeks on the recruiting trail in recent memory. They missed out on several high-profile prospects. It’s still early in his tenure, but narratives can take hold quickly (i.e. Napier can’t close, Florida is dysfunctional, etc.). Is this a major red flag and cause for concern or just noise with a new coach who is still playing catch up from his predecessor? — David S.
There seems to be much wailing and gnashing of teeth (chomp chomp) in Gainesville. It is only June and a game hasn’t been played, but there certainly have been some recruiting whiffs, as well as some coincidences of timing that just look terrible (Billy Napier’s open letter; Kearney’s FSU commitment a scant half-hour post-Gator official visit; and of course Rashada to the Canes all within a 24-hour period). How much of this is Gator fans overreacting, and how much does this bespeak real trouble for Napier’s tenure? — Catherine B.
Four-star quarterback Jaden Rashada of Pittsburg (Calif.) High was supposed to be the prospect who helped Florida break through, but after some late twists and turns in his recruitment,
he committed to Miami on Sunday afternoon.
As recently as two weeks ago, Florida was the team to beat in Rashada’s recruitment. Now the top-50 player nationally — a native of California — is headed to another Florida school. Ouch. That one hurt Florida. It hurt Billy Napier.
Though there has been some discussion about NIL and how it may have affected Rashada’s decision to choose the
Hurricanes, there is no question that Florida is in shaky territory as it relates to national perception.
Some of those, “This feels no different from the Dan Mullen era” thoughts are starting to creep up for Florida fans. It’s hard to blame them, especially after losing out on Rashada, four-star offensive lineman Roderick Kearney of Orange Park (Fla.) High and four-star linebacker Pup Howard of Jacksonville (Fla.) Andrew Jackson. Kearney, the No. 128 overall player in the country, committed to
Florida State on Sunday shortly after the conclusion of his official visit to Florida, and Howard, ranked No. 240, committed to South Carolina on Monday.
The Gators did record a win on the recruiting trail later on Monday when four-star cornerback Sharif Denson of Jacksonville (Fla.) Bartram Trail picked Florida over Miami and Florida State.
Napier published an open letter to the Florida fan base last week, which was something you’d expect from a coach who is on the hot seat. It seemed to coincide with the news that Rashada was trending toward Miami. It has to be the quickest open letter to a fan base from a head coach, especially considering Napier has yet to coach a game at Florida. But that’s what this job is all about. Winning in recruiting is as important as winning on the field, and frankly put, Florida isn’t winning in recruiting right now.
Florida has nine commitments in its 2023 class, and the highest-rated player is four-star edge rusher Isaiah Nixon (No. 195 overall). The early returns — which would certainly be viewed much differently had Rashada chosen the Gators — are certainly cause for concern.
But it’s really hard to gauge how to feel about Napier for two reasons. One, we’re still in June, and there is a lot of time to right the ship. The Gators are still in a good position with five-star cornerback Cormani McClain of Lakeland (Fla.) High and four-star defensive lineman Derrick LeBlanc of Kissimmee (Fla.) Osceola, among others, so the hope for Napier is that things will bounce back before pens hit paper in December. And two, how much did NIL really play into this? If Rashada chose Miami because the Hurricanes offered him an attractive NIL package — which is the talk on the Internet right now — then how much can you fault the head coach of Florida?
I’ll let the fans decide that. But that’s what the letter had to be about, right? Reminding people of how committed Florida is to winning these big-time recruiting battles. But in order to win them, Napier needs help from Gators fans. That’s the world we’re living in right now.
Also, you have to recognize that Miami is going to be a tough competitor for most of the recruits Florida is chasing. Mario Cristobal is one of the best recruiting head coaches in the sport, with or without NIL, so we have to acknowledge that this isn’t a one-time issue. Remember, McClain took an official visit to Miami over the weekend before releasing a top three that consists of Florida, Alabama and the Hurricanes. Cristobal is no joke.
Is Rashada choosing Miami a major red flag for Florida? I’m not sure if I’m willing to go that far just yet. There are still six months before signing day and perception can change in a hurry. But if Napier finishes his first full cycle as Florida’s head coach with a Mullen-like class — regardless of where you’d put the blame — I’d be worried about Florida’s long-term viability as a powerhouse recruiting outfit.