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Gamblers Anonymous: Week 7 plays

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UF over Mizz is a nice play. Mizzouri's defense gives up a ton of points and the Gators Defense holds everyone they play. Freshman quarterback going against a top 5 defense is not going to be easy.

I like Tajh Boyd at home seasoned quarterback plenty of experience Sammy Watkins a nice group of talent on defense home field advantage night game in Death Valley Winston's first ever big game. I'm taking Clemson.
 
dycane said:
Clemson ML (+130): This is unheard of value. I couldn't find in my research any precedent: a top three team in the country as a home dog going against a lesser ranked opponent. Add in the fact the home dog has a top notch senior QB and the favorite is starting a RS freshman at night in what will be his first real test and I think you have no choice but to jump on the ML value. FSU's kicker will be in the type of environment that has sent other FSU kickers to therapy. He better have the constitution of a Russian soldier. I'm going large on this simply based on the value, though I think FSU is very, very talented.

UM/UNC under (65): I think this will be a sloppy game. UNC has limited weapons. The TE is legit and I would presume we will gameplan to take him out of the equation. UNC will have to try to establish a ground game in order to open up the field. Based on what I've seen of them to date, that will be a tall task with a pedestrian backfield. Renner will be forced to try to win this game on the outside. I don't see UNC scoring more than 24. If you're UM, this is the type of game where you are happy just getting out of town with a victory. If think we will get conservative and pound the clock in the 4th presuming we have a comfortable lead. I don't think we score over 40.

UF/Mizzou (UF -3.5): KISS. Mizzou's best player happens to be the quarterback it lost to injury last week. It will be starting a true frosh against one of the best defenses in the country. If UF can hold a very, very lethal LSU offense to under 20 on the road, it can do the same against an 18 year old making his first start in a critical game.

Bama/Ark under (49): This is my sharp pick of the week. I'm going HAM. Arkansas is going to rely on a true freshman RB to carry the load against a Bama D in Tuscaloosa. Not good. Ark has already hit the wall and has barely scored in quarters 2-4 in its last two games. Bama's defense is getting better each game. I wouldn't be surprised if Ark fails to score 7. Saban has shown a clear tendency to gear down with a comfortable lead. Bama will exploit Ark's depleted line and ram it down their throats. I think the score ends up being somewhere around 38-3.
Click to expand...

I tried to warn you. Hope you stayed out of the gameday thread and took the under. Now, jump on the Bama under and enjoy the Clemson windfall!
 
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Oregon St/Cal Over 69

The #1 Passing offense vs the #122 pass defense (Yds Allowed)
&
The #5 Passing offense vs the #98 Pass Defense (Yds Allowed)
 
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