Appreciate the write up and the conversation. I missed the spring game for the first time since 2007, after spending a month in Las Vegas betting college basketball.
There was one immediate hilarity from the OP: Both Miami teams had issues at defensive tackle last season, and in recent seasons. While I was out of town, the Dolphins signed Ndamukong Suh. The Canes are relying on lights-on for Michael Wyche.
It's almost too hysterical to type. I wish every set of variables was that simple to forecast. If we are counting on Michael Wyche to dominate, or even be an above average factor in the ACC, we might as well throw bubble screens on every 3rd down. Lotsa luck.
I still can't get over Wyche's tippy-toe pass rush against South Carolina.
Our fixes will come via infusion of superior talent at key positions, not desperate hopes for flawed players like Michael Wyche to bloom. With that type, even if he looks good early in the season, which is certainly possible, there's a natural and guaranteed regression to the mean as the season progresses, ending up at the same level we've been.
Those interior defenders are not special. Consequently the plays are extended and everyone else looks worse than they actually are, especially on vital plays. With a guy like Suh the pocket collapses and vulnerable cover safeties like Reshad Jones don't have to stick with their guy that extra two or three tenths. That's all the difference, and the same thing the Canes benefitted from during our long glory era, with remarkable defensive tackles in abundance.
I'm not as concerned about the offensive line. Right now the defensive front may be touted and the offensive side doubted but they will level in reputation and performance as the season extends. We have enough athletic ability on the offensive side. Invariably there are offensive linemen who look stiff and overmatched early but they improve markedly later. Linder was an example last year.
As always, we need to run the ball more frequently. That's been an issue for years. Vulnerable offensive linemen gain confidence and competence if you allow them to drive block early and often. If we insist on throwing the ball to absurd extreme then you're asking to bring out all the flaws in Brad Kaaya, who was a notorious frontrunner last season and with that tendency so sharp it figures to linger. We can't get into key games with Kaaya forced to throw 20+ times in the first half.
Bottom line, I'll continue to rely on preseason ratings. Everybody has a gag. That's mine. I hit 67% of my bets in March using preseason ratings alone. Every time a Bar Stooler mocks those ratings early in the season I allow a little chuckle while knowing what those early upsets will produce later, in my favor. Examples like #7 preseason Louisville somehow a 2.5 point underdog to #70 preseason Northern Iowa. That result alone paid for my trip. As always, relying on exceptions is comically ignorant. When the Bar Stoolers rip preseason ratings they are fixated on the exceptions and not the rule. Preseason ratings in totality are amazingly accurate in college sports. I enable the bulk of the sample to work for me.
I mention that angle because the Canes, once again, figure to be buried in the preseason numbers. What will we be, 30th to 40th? Somewhere nearby. That means there is little need for false hope. Other than at Florida State we figure to be moderate favorite to moderate underdog in every conference game. I know the likely distribution among games in that range.
BTW, there is a casino in Las Vegas that reminds me exactly of Sun Life Stadium. Hysterically pathetic patchwork. I wondered how the old Sahara opened so quickly, after being closed a couple of years ago. The new version appropriately shares the same initials as our stadium: SLS cost $415 million over 18 months to patch. That's almost identical to the numbers from Steve Ross' plan. It must be the going rate for flawed thinking.
It was difficult not to laugh when I drove up to SLS. I recognized all the old pillars and posts from the aged Sahara. They didn't bother to change the layout at all. Overlay everywhere. Distractions like tall glass doors at the entrance, and dark futuristic ceilings inside. Restaurants everywhere. That's the new Las Vegas obsession, BTW. Casinos flooded with restaurants. If you want Johnny Rockets, Las Vegas has you covered. SLS now features the world's first knife and fork sportsbook.
One phrase dominates among locals every time SLS is mentioned: "There's nobody in there." Indeed. A patchwork like SLS in a terrible location can't compete in Las Vegas. Unfortunately, there's plenty of truth to a segment of the new Dolphin theme song, "...only game in town."
A patched Sun Life Stadium would be deservedly ridiculed in other cities, ones with direct reference to classic old or astute new stadiums. But since we have a standalone that is merely being compared to previous bland versions of itself, we're supposed to marvel at altered seat color or sand cleaned cement.