Your numbers are correct for trying to score one run, but the chances of scoring multiple runs in an inning goes down significantly when you give up an out to advance the runners. You are betting on 1) that a player knows how to bunt properly 2) that the pitching rotation is deep enough to go into extra innings. I have no faith in either (and the kid loses confidence in himself since his coach doesn't trust him to hit). You asked a poster why the batter's average against ACC play was used instead of overall. I think the ACC, in general, has better arms that FGCU and if a batter is hitting nearly .400 against ACC pitching, it's just bad strategy to ask him to bunt against FGCU. Also- metal bats. Ball moves fast off metal bats, making double plays less likely. Asking a singles hitter to hit a single in that situation is not asking too much. Sometimes it doesn't work, but statistically you have a MUCH better chance of winning the game (different than scoring just one run) if you let the player swing away in the 9th with no outs and 2 on.